The start of 2021 saw a re-elected Labour government who had won in a landslide, the first party to win a majority under MMP, at the ‘Covid’ election in late 2020.
That October election saw the departure of New Zealand First, curiously their message to voters that “It was all Labour’s fault, it was not us, you should be grateful we were there to stop them doing worse” failed to resonate at a time when the government was riding high in popularity.
Later in 2021 Winston re-appeared on social media seemingly with an objective of hoovering up support from the New Conservatives, the far right flank of ACT, and of putting race relations in this country back decades. I suspect he’ll have some competition for that dog whistle in 2022.
The Maori Party returned to parliament after a three-year absence, with Rawiri Waititi defeating Tamati Coffey in Waiariki by a margin smaller even than the number of votes Hannah Tamaki received in that electorate.
Rawiri took over as male co-leader from John Tamihere and spent much of 2021 trying to annoy speaker Trevor Mallard, seemingly with a primary objective in parliament of changing the dress code or at least getting kicked out trying to.
Curiously the new leaders in 2021, possibly suffering from Stockholm syndrome stuck on the opposition benches between National and ACT, have repeated the position that they can work with either National or Labour. I predict Labour MP Willie Jackson will devote significant time in 2022 attacking this position and making it clear that a vote for the Maori Party is a vote for National and also therefore ACT.
An invigorated ACT party tore at the National Party carcass at the election like a pack of hyenas, increasing from a single MP to ten. David finally had some friends in parliament although looking at the party list beyond number two you had to wonder if they were people he’d invited to the party with an expectation that they’d actually turn up.
As National continued to bleed support under the leadership of Judith Collins David Seymour outperformed her in the house and focused on a few specific issues ensuring that more National voters shifted their allegiance.
For all the good work ACT achieved in 2021 laying towels on the deck chairs on the centre right side of the ship, the polls following National’s change in leadership showed it could be short lived. Depending on how the polls go by about March I suspect one of these parties will blow the dog whistle so hard even Don Brash would be proud.
The Green Party was the first ‘minor’ party in government to increase their vote, despite the Labour landslide. The problem as ever for the Greens is they have nowhere to go, it’s not like they will ever go into coalition with National. They achieved some good minor wins but realistically have no leverage and their goal can only be to grow the vote at the expense of Labour, building to 15 percent so they have real power at the negotiating table.
Both co-leaders Marama and James played nicely with Labour leaving it to others in the caucus to prod the bear, albeit with a smile. It will be interesting whether they go more on the attack in 2022 to draw the votes of those who have voted for them previously, or those on the left dissatisfied by Labour if they fail to undertake transformational change.
The National Party started the year in shock, I doubt they expected to win the 2020 election but I doubt they expected to lose so emphatically. They had a leader in complete denial that her performance at the election was in anyway a factor in the disastrous result, and seemingly a complete dirth of potential leaders to replace her.
2021 saw Chris Bishop undertaking the role played by Simon Bridges in 2020 of chasing every car, including the parked ones, attacking every aspect of the government’s Covid response. No detail was too insignificant, or easily understandable; that Bishop did not demand it was catastrophic and unforgivable, even as most people seemed to think it was going quite well really.
Shane Reti was their stand out performer; he came across as being hard working, well informed, and well intentioned. National did not set the bar high in 2021.
Of course the political moment of the year was when Judith Collins told Simon Bridges he was walking the plank, as she had previously told Todd Muller, as she had previously told Nick Smith. Unfortunately for Judith Simon’s reply was “Yeah, Nah, bring it”.
Following Judith’s political suicide, and a close, and yet unanimous, election by caucus Chris “the second coming of Key” took his anointed role at the head of the Party. He said “fundamentally” a lot, bingo boards worth of meaningless corporate buzzwords, mentioned his friend John regularly and waited for the inevitable surge in support he was due for not being Judith.
Labour commenced the year with the first outright win by a single party under MMP. They could do anything with a majority like that - even sacrifice the holy cow that is never ending increases in house prices. In the meantime they had the not inconsequential matter of Covid to continue dealing with.
There were some stellar performances this year from Labour. My top three:
Chris Hipkins was an absolute machine as Covid response Minister. His mastery of detail and composure at the regular press conferences was astounding. He gave us the sound bite of the year with “spread your legs”, well, until Jacinda indicated that up to 25 people would be allowed at an orgy under the ‘red light’ setting.
The one black mark on Hipkin’s report card would be mentioning the brain fart of an idea of assigning people departing Auckland for the holidays a timeslot to do so. He recovered well though emerging from the bush on holiday for the Omicron Xmas press conference and echoing the frustration of the public at the thoughtless actions of the British DJ.
Jacinda Ardern was immense and resolute. The decisions got harder, there was no response to Delta that would make everyone happy – some said the actions were too little, some said too much, a lot thought she got it just right. It was awful to see the level of vitriol and hatred aimed at this intelligent woman demonstrating leadership, once again, that would be the envy of many populations around the world.
It won’t get better in 2022 with Jacinda getting married. This event will cause those already furious to lose their minds, even more than when Julie Anne Genter cycled to the hospital to give birth – again. Perhaps we’ll get lucky and their heads will explode. An outstanding year from the Prime Minister, almost enough to be politician of the year, but for 2021 that goes to…
Grant Robertson. His handling of the economy during an enormously expensive pandemic that sees NZ Inc in a good position, his ability to swat away claims from the opposition of superior economic management. His hilarious speeches that even had the opposition targets of them laughing. Given the pressure the PM is under it is fortunate she has such an able deputy.
I predict in 2022 there will no further lockdowns, barring a much more deadly variant than Omicron. The media, business people given a high pulpit, and the opposition have backed the government into a corner in terms of taking that action again.
This will be the year when many say to the government, perhaps unfairly, the Covid response was outstanding, both from a health perspective and in terms of economic support – but what else have you got?
Time to address the other elephants in the room, without scaring the horses too much. Climate change, poverty and inequality, and most significantly housing affordability, haven’t gone anywhere – this year needs to be moving time before election year in 2023 – if not now, with this majority, then when?
A prediction for the polls at the end of 2022:
Labour 40%
National 34%
Greens 10%
ACT 9%
NZF 3%
Maori 2%
Misc 2%
Take care all of you lovely people, I hope you’re getting a good break especially if any of you have worked as hard as Jacinda Ardern has this year – in which case you’ve bloody well earned it.
Damn good read Nick.