Black Budget Eve

Chlöe Swarbrick finds a gaping hole in Nicola's budget.

Into temptation
Knowing full well, the Earth will rebel
Into temptation
Safe in the wide open arms of Hell

Song: Neil Finn.

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Black Budget Eve.

The cuts had all been counted, and the nation had been warned that bad things were coming. Fresh off the presses was Nicola’s recipe for tough love, and she’s not even pretending this is going to hurt her more than it hurts you - it won’t.

On the cover, it read “Summary of Initiatives”, but I’ve updated it to a more accurate description for Nicola, “My Budget of Misery”.

Nicola looked very pleased with herself and even opened her purse, letting a few moths escape, to shout the team the budget classic: a meat pie, and no bloody sausage rolls.

There they were, Shane Jones looking at ease, perhaps not his first kaimoana pastry of the day. Chris Bishop, drowning his gourmet pie in tomato sauce and shovelling half of it into his gob before Nicola has even worked out how to attack hers. David Seymour, inscrutable behind sunglasses, takes a small nibble, then puts the rest in a bag, presumably to take home, just as people with leftover school meals are not allowed to do.

Brian recognised them, “The Atlas Family. Uncle Fester, Morticia, Thing and Cousin Itt.”

You can watch the photo op in full here if you can stomach it.

But someone was missing, someone who seems to be absent a lot lately, which is curious, as it’s definitely not like him to miss a photo shoot. Where was the Prime Minister? It’s not like Jacinda would’ve let Grant eat all the cheese rolls on his own…

Jacinda, Grant, and Cheese Rolls.

Where was Christopher Luxon? It seemed odd that he wasn’t even in the background, gurning away and taking the credit for all Nicola’s hard work.

I thought of all the media interviews Nicola Willis had given since the US’s debacle in Iran began, fronting on fuel levels and, more recently, on issues such as public-sector cuts, without even mentioning Luxon, and wondered:

Do you get the impression that National has chosen Nicola Willis to lead them into the election, but hasn’t told Christopher yet?

Kathryn suggested, “I reckon they wrote him a memo that no one can find. If he found it, then he still won’t know. That memo could be so lost that even an OIA won’t find it.”

Selena pointed out, “The CEO doesn’t have a clue what the boss is up to.” I suspected that wasn’t the first time in his career.

How big is your hole?

Nicola Willis’ all-time zinger in the house was the time she asked Grant Robertson how big his hole was, and the response of the clapping seals behind her barking their appreciation of her innuendo. But now Chlöe Swarbrick of the Greens was asking her the same question, and she was decidedly unamused.

It was bad enough when Nicola had been gloating about her cruel-to-be-kind budget, and Swarbrick had said she should “get a grip”, but for the Greens of all people to question her numbers was unacceptable.

This morning on Breakfast, Tova said, “The Green Party says it’s unearthed a whopping great fiscal hole in Nicola Willis’ finances. They say the government has lost $1.4b in forecast revenue from big polluters after auctions under the Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) failed.” Then she welcomed Chlöe to the show and asked her to walk us through their workings.

I tried to imagine Nicola Willis being asked to detail her workings; it seemed so improbable, but Chlöe went straight into it.

“Effectively, the complete, utter, dismal failure of this government’s climate policy over the last two years has resulted in approximately $1.4b less money coming into the government’s cash flows, which has resulted in the government trying to quietly cover its tracks by borrowing and putting our country in more debt to the tune of at least one and a half billion dollars.”

Tova asked how they had worked it out, and Chlöe said it was based on comparing forecasts from Treasury of the anticipated cash flows from ETS auctions, which are essentially companies buying the permission to pollute, with the actual numbers, as confirmed by Nicola Willis’ office in response to a question from the Greens.

Nicola Willis’s budget already involved borrowing more despite the austerity measures, but this sounded like something extra, something that perhaps Nicola had swept under the rug until the Greens had noticed the large mound in the carpet. Goodness, it wasn’t Christopher Luxon, was it?

Tova dumbed things down and summarised it as the government having banked cheques that then bounced because of the ETS’s non-take-up. O’Brien started to wander off into some sort of rebuttal on behalf of National to cloud the waters, but Chlöe wasn’t having it and took charge, saying:

“The government came into power, shredded climate policy, that is, investment in renewable energy generation and our transition and said, ‘Don’t worry about it, guys, we’re going to deal with climate policy by relying on the market, that is, the ETS’. But over the last two years, they have taken a hammer to that market; they have absolutely destroyed that market.”

Green Party co-leader Chlöe Swarbrick. Photo: RNZ / Mark Papalii

Chlöe told us that the independent Climate Change Commission, in a recent report surveying market players, noted that, almost universally, the market does not trust this government’s commitment to climate policy. This has undermined confidence in the ETS and left us with this $1.4b hole.

Any pretence at an interview was long gone as Tova looked as redundant as someone who says the wrong thing about this government on a public broadcaster, one too many times.

Chlöe continued, asking herself the question, “Why should Kiwis care?” She answered:

“People should care because Nicola Willis has spent the last two years lecturing all of us about the dangers of taking on more debt. Here we have a Minister of Finance who is quietly trying to cover her tracks for the failure of this government’s climate policy by taking on $1.4b more debt. This stuff has to matter. Truth has to matter in a democracy.”

Tova said we needed to bring Nicola Willis in for her response, but the Finance Minister had refused to appear. Perhaps she is more like Luxon than I thought.

Nicola denied in writing that this was the case, and Tova asked Chlöe whether the Greens were getting ahead of themselves before the numbers are revealed tomorrow.

As always, Chlöe had the answer: the numbers for tomorrow are irrelevant to this claim, which is based on actual events over the last two years showing that 8 of the 10 auctions under this government have failed. “These numbers are solid,” she said.

There was no way Nicola would admit they were borrowing because of their own mismanagement; it’s hard to tell people to tighten their belts after you’ve messed up. So her written response scaremongered about borrowing if Labour and the Greens were in power.

Chlöe smiled and said she was more than happy to discuss Green Party policy: lowering emissions, improving people’s quality of life, and reducing the cost of living by ensuring those at the top pay their fair share so all NZ’ers can thrive. Her attitude said, “Bring It On!”

Swarbrick said, “What this government is focused on is merciless cuts, that is not how you build a country, that is how you break one, and New Zealanders are feeling it every single day.”

Our country feels broken, from giving tax cuts to tobacco companies while cutting fair pay for women, and from quietly meeting with lobbyists while increasing the cost of social housing. All while they themselves can claim $1,000 a week to live in a house they own.

On the mysterious goings on in the PMO, Chlöe, sounding unusually emotional, said:

“Regular New Zealanders don’t get to hold secret meetings with secret documents with the Prime Minister’s Office to then end up having the law changed successfully in their favour. This is beyond shady; it has resulted in serious allegations of corruption, and the basic question of who this government is actually working for.”

O’Brien sat there, looking stunned, as if thinking, “This conversation is above my pay grade if I want to keep getting paid.” Chlöe was glad that the ombudsman was looking into it.

In finishing, Tova said they had asked Nicola Willis, Christopher Luxon, and Simeon Brown to appear, and they had all refused. That is a pretty bad look for a government, the day before the budget.

I thought it was an impressive performance from Chlöe, and it is hard to think of many other MPs in our parliament who can speak so clearly and openly. Whichever side of the political fence you’re on, it’s a pretty sad indictment of a government that, when challenged, they won’t even appear to respond.

Have a good Wednesday, folks, and take care, all you lovely people.

Ngā Mihi,
Nick.

To end today is the 68th birthday of the wonderful Neil Finn, here’s Into Temptation, one of my favourite songs of his: