Devil You Know
National decides to keep Luxon after all.
If I'da known you yesterday
If I'da known it'd turn out today
I was prone to believe in a love with no ending
And now I know your devotion's unbending
You blow me away
Song: Dave Dobbyn.
This morning, the National Party held an emergency caucus to decide whether to stick with the error-prone Christopher Luxon, who has failed to connect with most Kiwis, or to gamble on a new leader.
Also this morning, 1 News did something unusual. Rather than waiting for the 6 pm bulletin to announce their latest poll, they released their Preferred PM results early. Luxon was still ahead, but he continues to decline and is now clearly below 20% support. Interestingly, Stanford has begun to appear in voters' responses.
For context, even at Jacinda Ardern’s lowest level of support, just prior to her resignation, she was still polling 35% as preferred PM.
Chris Hipkins posted an excellent summary of the situation:
Christopher Luxon has called every National MP to Wellington for an urgent meeting.
Not about your power bill. Not about the price of groceries. About his job.
In April, Luxon said: “If you can’t manage yourselves, you can’t run the country.”
He was right.
We don’t know what happened in that caucus room; it was radio silence as all MPs had to hand their phones in to avoid leaks.
It must have been a long wait for the reporters waiting to pounce, but fortunately for them, Labour MP Damien O'Connor dropped off some bags of popcorn to help enjoy the theatre.
There was so little to report on that even Chris Bishop appearing outside made a headline, but there was no word on whether he’d just ducked out for some nicotine or was fleeing in defeat.
As party members started to leave, a room was set up for a press conference, and word came through that it would be held at about 12:30 pm.
We waited and waited, watching the empty lectern and the journalists playing with their phones and making knowing glances at each other and then at 12:50 pm Luxon appeared, which rather suggested he had won.
It was a very brief announcement: there was more work to do, yadda yadda yadda, and then he said there had been a confidence vote and that he had the full support of his caucus. That made him look like a bit of a goose if it was true, and it will be interesting to see what the count actually was once it’s leaked.
He didn’t hang around, didn’t take any questions or offer any indication of what retribution might befall the rebels. It was over as though it never happened, a huge anticlimax to what could have been the announcement of a new PM.
To me, Luxon looks weaker than ever, getting the jitters and forcing the issue when a more experienced politician might have said - “let them come”.
The timeline until the election should preclude any further attempts to challenge Luxon, but if I were a National supporter I’d probably be thinking they’ve stuck with a lame duck rather than being brave and choosing another option, like Erica Stanford.
Nothing changes with Luxon in power, but what might have changed if they had chosen Stanford?
ACT have been quite vocal, saying they saw no reason for the coalition not to continue without Luxon. The big question would have been Winston.
It would have been tempting for a new leader to make their mark by sacking Peters as Foreign Minister, but that wouldn’t necessarily have meant the end of the government. Peters might well have thought that with only a month or so until parliament rises, he’d prefer not to be the one who brought the government down.
Having said that, Stanford may well have decided that her best course of action was to go to the polls early, while her leadership was new and before anything else hit the fan. If that had happened, it would have been even more important than it already is for voters to avoid National’s voter suppression laws and make sure they’re enrolled.
I checked my enrolment details this morning and had to remove suburb details to confirm my ability to vote, as it failed to recognise me using their address finder. If you’ve never voted, you haven’t voted for a while, or even if you always vote, make sure you check that you’re enrolled here.
Who would have shed a tear for Luxon?
If this had been the end of Christopher Luxon, a man who believes he can run the country without understanding our political landscape or the people of this nation, I imagine few would have shed a tear. Even his wife, Amanda, can’t have enjoyed the last few years, despite the smile that was always plastered on.
When he does go, I won’t shed a tear for Christopher, but I will think of people in hospital corridors waiting too long to be seen, of pensioners choosing not to use heating because they can’t afford it, of the individuals and families affected by cuts to disability services, of the public servants who lost their jobs, of the low-paid workers for whom life became even tougher, and so many others.
Those are the people I will weep for, not Christopher Luxon with his entitlements, his attitude that the poor, the “bottom feeders”, were beneath him and his inability to see the realities of other people’s lives.
It will be a blessing for Māori too, who have been subjected to so many attacks and attempts to dilute what little recognition the government gives to te Tiriti.
I don’t personally think Luxon is racist, but he has encouraged and enabled the worst people to bring their racist views into parliament and even into legislation. For that reason, I will always consider him NZ’s most anti-Māori PM, a leader who lacked the courage to even show up at Waitangi.
When it comes, it will be a relief for Aotearoa, for the environment and the people, who have been subjected to so much. On that day I will celebrate his departure, this hollow man who stands for nothing but big business and the wealthy. A man unable to understand that his role is to govern for all New Zealanders and not just a few.
Have a good Wednesday, folks, and take care, all of you. To receive new posts from me, join the conversation in the comments, and support my mahi, subscribe:
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Ngā mihi,
Nick.
To end today, here’s DD Smash with Devil You Know.
Kind of happy he hasn't been rolled, I want to see him against other leaders in the election debates and to be thoroughly grilled by the journalists he has made it his mission to avoid.
Great article Nick. With Luxon at the helm, nothing will change and National will continue to lose support, probably to either NZ First or Act. Even if the same COC is re-elected (heaven forbid), it will be with a much weakened National Government with both Act and NZ First being bigger tails wagging the dog more than ever before. This will definitely not benefit this country and its future.
On the other hand, being optimistic, Luxon might be just the gift that the Opposition parties are looking for to gain the Treasury benches.