Got To Have Love

Chippy leads, Barbara understands, and Luxon and Willis dream.

Light all your candles
Light all your candles for me now
‘Cause all your birthdays came at once
And don’t you try to hide
It cannot be denied
I waited far too long
To believe, to believe in the words I once wrote to this song

Song: Pulp.

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Leadership.

Yesterday wasn’t the first time, but it was a good reminder that when other politicians and parties are running around like headless chooks, there is a mature voice of reason that rings through, providing leadership.

It’s not the Prime Minister, and it’s certainly not Winston Peters or David Seymour; the individual who sounded like a leader yesterday was Chris Hipkins.

From Stuff:

The Labour leader says it’s time for Winston Peters to stop talking about himself, move on from the crowbar attack on his house and focus on issues Kiwis care about.

Hear, hear, that man. It’s time to concentrate on what matters —whether that’s Gaza or the economy —not Winston’s bloody window. It’s good to see such mature leadership from the Labour leader, as other MPs revel in distraction.

Hipkins said, “Some politicians love talking about themselves. We have to always remember why we are here, which is to make New Zealand a better country for all New Zealanders, so that they can stay, they can find work, they can get a job, they can have good health care, they can buy their own home or have a secure place to live.”

Clearly, this was about Winston, or perhaps Luxon, but Hipkins also had advice for the Finance Minister after she referred to those protesting as dogs that need to be called off. “Nicola Willis should focus on getting the economy moving again and getting people back into jobs,” he said, adding that calling people names isn’t helpful.

Essentially, he was doing the Prime Minister’s job for him, telling an increasingly Trump-like Foreign Minister and his Finance Minister to pull their heads in, focus on the job at hand, and stop calling people names.

It’s not the first time I’ve seen Chippy do it. When he spoke at Waitangi this year, as people turned their backs on Seymour and the PM failed to show, I thought, sitting on the grass and listening to him, that man sounds like a Prime Minister. Even with the emotive discussion of the Treaty Principles Bill, he spoke with reason and mana.

Anyone following Jacinda was going to struggle to match her appeal, but Chippy is kind too, and if there is an emergency as she faced, he’s the one I want in charge.

Some say Kieran McAnulty can connect with turns of phrase and his laddish banter; he has a significant role in the next government, and his time will come, but I’d stick with Chippy.

I think his quiet maturity and considered responses are exactly what this country needs, right now, and based on the polls, I’m not the only one…

National falls below 30% in latest Curia poll, left bloc could form government.

Labour was down, but National was down more; the Greens and NZ First were up, ACT was heading towards the 5% threshold, and Hipkins was the top pick for preferred Prime Minister.

Party Vote

• Labour 31.2 percent, down 2.6 percentage points

• National 29.6 percent, down 3.5

• Greens 12 percent, up 1.3

• NZ First 10.6 per cent, up 2.5

• ACT 6.6 per cent, down 0.1

• Te Pāti Māori 4.4 percent, up 0.1

As the RNZ article states, “This would give the left bloc 61 seats, and the right bloc 59. The poll assumes Te Pāti Māori retains its six electorate seats.”

It was a remarkable result for NZ First, which often struggles in the polls between elections and hovers around the 5% threshold. A result below 30% was dismal for National, and voter dissatisfaction was also apparent in the preferred PM rankings:

Preferred prime minister

• Chris Hipkins 20.9 percent (up 3.2 percentage points)

• Christopher Luxon 19.8 percent (down 1.9)

• Winston Peters 9.9 percent (down 1.0)

• Chlöe Swarbrick 6.3 percent (down 2.5)

• David Seymour 4.0 percent (up 0.3)

With a year to go, the National Party will be unhappy with both results, and it will do little to quell speculation about succession planning for their unpopular leader.

Marama Davidson of the Greens said, “We are offering the solutions for the things that people are worried about at this time: jobs, free ECE, free GPs, free dental, addressing homelessness, ending poverty and tackling climate action. That’s what people want to hear.”

Responding to the result, Hipkins said, “That bounces around, a percent or two here and there, but the overall trajectory for us has been very positive and it’s been a very negative trajectory for the National Party.”

The best Luxon could offer was, “No doubt about it, it’s been a tough time. New Zealanders voted for me and our government to fix the economy and get it growing. We’re working incredibly hard to do that. I don’t deny it’s been difficult and it’s still tough, but ultimately they’ll get to make their decision in 2026 whether we’ve done that job or not.”

It’s not looking too good for the PM with the cost of living, the economy, and health identified by those polled as the most critical issues. Still, maybe there was time for a knight in shining armour to come to the rescue?

The OCR.

The big event of the day, that saviour for the National Party, was an anticipated 0.5% drop in the OCR. Some economists had speculated it would be half that, but what the Reserve Bank communicated was that the economy was doing so badly that it needed to be shocked back into life.

Of course, National put a spin on the announcement, claiming it was a win for those with mortgages.

Never mind the fact that the RB’s primary objective is to keep inflation under control, and that this increase will likely see inflation exceed the 3% upper limit of their target. I’m sure the political pressure to drop the rate was immense.

Can you imagine how Willis, Hosking, and Luxon would have responded if the RB governor had announced that it was not prudent to lower the rate at this time and left it unchanged? They’d have howled blue murder, as this Hail Mary is the only chance they have of stimulating the economy, in the absence of any other plan to do so.

Willis was so desperate for a cut to resurrect the economy that she has even said a bit more inflation was okay…

Luxon and Willis believe that if mortgage holders have a bit more money in their pocket, they’re likely to spend it; although, given the current uncertainty in the economy, I’d be surprised if much of it makes it to the malls.

I’m also guessing that the phone network wasn’t overloaded yesterday with landlords calling to advise tenants of rent reductions as they passed on the savings.

Yeah, right, although that scenario is not as far-fetched as that suggested in this cartoon:

The reason for such a large cut is that the economy is in the toilet, and the government’s efforts to get people into employment are not grounded in reality.

There may be some bounce in spending, resulting in a few more jobs, but this is not a long-term solution that can fill the gap left by the absence of an economic plan.

The problem with a lower OCR being your only economic plan is that eventually, you run out of cuts to make.

Jillaine commented, “And when people have no jobs or job security, they’re not in a position to buy a house. No doubt we will see mega landlords take advantage of favourable lending conditions and snap up homes that should be going to first-home buyers.”

Dianne wrote, “And meanwhile, we pensioners who rely on interest suffer!”

She’s right; only a third of Kiwis have mortgages. For the rest, this change will likely lead to a higher cost of living, and for those with retirement savings, it will mean a lower income.

Labour Party Finance Spokesperson, Barbara Edmonds, was fired up in response, as you can see in this clip:

Barbara gets it, and so does Chippy. They, along with the Greens and perhaps Te Pāti Māori, will make a formidable team—one who understands that people come first and the economy should serve the interests of people, not profits.

Barbara Edmonds and Chris Hipkins. Image: BeFunky.

I’m ready for a new government. One that cares about the cost of living and jobs, with a Finance Minister who fights for people and a leader who shows maturity and kindness.

That’s all from me today. I hope you have a good one.

Ngā mihi,
Nick.

To end today, here’s Pulp with Got To Have Love. Love the video.