Hine Ruhi (Slice Of Heaven)

Average polls, dirty politics, and the death of a bill.

Ko kōpū ka rere i te pae
Me ko Hine Ruhi
Tīaho mai tō aroha
Me ko Hine Ruhi

Da da da ba du da da ba du da da da ba du da da da da da da
Da da da ba du da da ba du da da da ba du da da da da da da

Lyrics: Dave Dobbyn, translation Hana Mereraiha.

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That poll.

As you probably know, TVNZ announced a political poll last night, and even Maiki Sherman agreed it was a bit of a non-event.

There were no major losers or winners other than NZ First, which was up 2% to 7%, and Winston Peters, as preferred PM, also up 2% to 7%.

It’s hard to know what to attribute Winston's improved popularity to.

It could be his declaration of a War on Woke, or maybe some see him doing well on the world stage, with National and NZ First clamouring to take credit for NZ receiving a relatively low 10% tariff in the opening salvos of Trump’s trade wars.

“The Haircut. PM Luxon and Trade Minister McClay look on the bright side of Trump’s tariffs.”

Anyone with half a brain can see that nothing of the sort happened. We’re paying the same percentage as other countries like us; the rate is based on our trade balance and has nothing to do with the imagined charms of the coalition.

Fortunately, those so well endowed with intellect and reason are not Winston’s target audience.

Let’s be honest; his mob probably love the culture wars stuff that says good is bad, climate change isn’t real, and affirmative action is an insidious plot to disadvantage those who got to the top on merit.

Where are we?

Since we’re about halfway through the election cycle, let’s see how the numbers in that poll compare to the result of the last election (please note the following have been rounded; given the margin of error, there seemed little point in worrying about the odd half a per cent):

• National are down 2% (38% → 36%) since the election.

• Labour is up 5% (27% → 32%).

• The Greens are down 2% (12% → 10%).

• ACT is unchanged at 9%

• NZ First is up 1% (6% → 7%).

• Te Pāti Māori is unchanged at 3%

The poll gives the right block 52% against the left’s 45%, a gap of 7%. Although down from the 11% margin at the election, this would comfortably return the coalition to government.

There’s no indication that any other party will play a role in the next election, aside from wasted votes attributed to parties like TOP, who received 2% support in this poll but are most unlikely to reach the 5% threshold.

Maiki made much of a small fall in the preferred PM popularity for Chlöe Swarbrick, which was a bit - meh.

The Greens never do particularly well in that measure, and it doesn’t matter, given that we’re running a proportional system based on parties, not a presidential race.

I was pleased the Green party vote held up at 10%, given recent hit jobs against them. That support was essentially unchanged from recent polls from the TPU (11%) and RNZ (10%).

That Billboard.

Yesterday, ACT celebrated a Dirty Politics style stunt by the Sensible Sentencing Trust (SST), who ran billboards with fake Green Party adverts and false information.

This is apparently in line with the SST’s moral code, which finds no issue with lies and deception but has a major hard-on for locking up people from awful backgrounds and throwing away the key.

ACT have proxies for their dirty work, lobbyists who promote them like the Taxpayers’ Union, the media, which seems to find every brain fart of a policy or absurd claim worth covering, or funders like Elon Musk wannabe, Nick Mowbray.

Actually, perhaps we should spare a thought for Balloon Boy, who is seeing how we non-billionaires feel given the consequences of electing leaders who disregard the people and are willing to sacrifice the whole world’s economy if it means they’ll emerge richer and more powerful.

Back to Tamatha Paul and the claim that the Greens intend to defund the Police. The following excerpt is from RNZ’s article: Billboards attacking Green MPs appear in Wellington and Auckland

Defunding the police is not Green Party policy. At a panel last month Paul said police resources could be used more productively, and suggested other agencies and organisations were better placed to take on some of police's functions.

She said a "visible police presence" was making people feel more on edge, and she had received "nothing but complaints" about police beat patrols.

I figured if it was good enough for the Greens to be smeared with false statements about defunding, then it was pretty reasonable to produce something similar for actual cuts:

Image: BeFunky.

That’s a lighthearted response; if we wanted to get down and dirty with the right, how about one for National with a picture of Louise Upston looking grim-faced, if you can imagine that, and the legend “Defund Disability Support”?

Killing the Bill.

Perhaps we should also spare a thought for ACT; it must be a hard week for them, with their attempt to dishonour the Treaty so resoundingly rejected and their bill being euthanised.

In fact, if you do have any thoughts for them, you might like to have a watch party or something else to celebrate on Thursday as the last rites are read.

Image: Te Pāti Māori.

Personally, I’d like to thank David Seymour and his team. I’d have had much less to write about without their bill over the last year and a half.

If there had been no Treaty Principles Bill, I wouldn’t have been outside Parliament on the day the Hikoi arrived and experienced the most incredibly powerful peaceful resistance I can recall; that’s a moment I’ll carry till I die.

Without Seymour’s actions, I probably wouldn’t have gone to Waitangi this year and seen the crowd stand and turn their backs on him as they sang “Proud to be Māori”. That's another one in the highlights reel, for sure.

Turning their backs on Seymour. Image: BeFunky.

Before all of this, I knew it was right to address historic grievances and current inequities that exist due to a lack of fair treatment or outright racism, but I didn’t know just how much it mattered to me.

As a result of David Seymour and his bill, my love of Aotearoa and the role of te Tiriti that underpins our partnership has never been clearer.

And because of that love, I can’t wait to see the back of him.

The dirty politics, the mean-spirited philosophy of taking from children’s lunch boxes to give to wealthy and sorted landlords, the sheer arrogance of the Prick.

I’m going to enjoy Thursday and, most of all, the thought I’ll have for Seymour, the ACT Party, and every single person who wanted to see that bill pass is:

Fuck You!

Ah, that feels better. Try it on Thursday or now if you prefer.

Have a great day, all you lovely people in this our Slice of Heaven; I’ll see you in the comments.