A homicide in Ponsonby, a manhunt with a killer on the run. The nation’s leader stands before a press conference reassuring a frightened nation that he’ll sort it out, he’ll keep them safe, he’ll build some new prison spaces.
Sorry what? There’s a scary dude on the run with a gun and what? We’re supposed to say, “look mate just chill for a bit ok? If you could just hold that thought we’ll have these new cells ready for you in no time.”
Of course I’m being facetious, but there is a serious side here. The solution to address the increasing level of violent crime can’t just be to lock more people up.
We know what that looks like. We see it in places like the US where despite having high incarceration rates there is a lot of violent crime. Whereas in countries like Germany it’s the opposite.
Almost as though locking people up, rather than dealing with them in some other way, has the reverse effect to that intended,
Prisonstudies.org shows that the US incarcerates 531 people per 100,000 people. In Germany it’s just 62, but in NZ we’re up on 162.
The UN Office on Drugs and Crime shows that in the US there are 6.2 homicides per 100,000 people annually. In Germany it’s just 0.8, but in NZ it was 2.6.
So perhaps locking people up is not in fact the silver bullet after all? Assuming that your goal in building more prisons is to reduce violent crime, like homicides.
No doubt there are other factors at play. I mean obviously things like social welfare, and access to public health and education, are better in Germany than the US. But it can’t be that, can it?
Surely if inequality and access to essential public services were a factor then the coalition would be all over it? Closing the gap between rich and poor faster than you can say “Jiminy Crickets there’s an armed murderer on the loose and this guy wants to start building prisons”.
I mean, otherwise all of these cost-cutting measures the coalition are taking, which will increase those problems, would be completely the wrong thing to do.
To be fair Luxon does have some history of offering very long term solutions for very immediate problems. When asked recently about issues with staffing out health system he boasted of his plan to bring medicine to Waikato University.
The reality is you can’t pin this incident on Luxon anymore than it was fair to do the same to his predecessors across the aisle.
The difference being that he’s spent the last couple of years, since he became leader, telling the country that crime is high because Labour has been soft on the crims, and he was going to fix all the problems.
So how’s that going?
What has he given us? Plans to ban gang patches, cover up tattoos, and resurrect failed policies like boot camps and the gimmick that is Three Strikes.
There are still plenty of violent assaults, ram raids, and an increasing number of crimes with firearms. Although they might not get quite so much coverage these days as there is no grief politicking going on with Chris and Dave gormlessly gurning at the scene of some tragic incident.
But do you know who’s really to blame?
We are. The people of Aotearoa who elected them. Because the same thing happened the last time National was in power.
They swept in on promises from Key that they’d crack down on crime, gangs, and drugs. But what did we get? Community police stations closing, less funding for police, and a bogus meth cleanup industry.
People fell for it again, the old Law and Order, tough on crime, schtick.
Yesterday’s Press Conference, announcing the additional spending, was a complete shambles. Minister Mitchell had no real idea about his numbers. Which beds were new, which were old, how many were replacements, and what proportion had Labour already budgeted for, which were now were being re-announced?
Honestly if the bad guys were watching they would’ve been laughing harder than the time Maybelline Mitchell’s makeup policy was announced.
Christopher Luxon wasn’t laughing, he looked decidedly uncomfortable as he repeatedly had to go to the aid of his flailing minister.
In Jenna’s article she covers the whole confusing exchange, and then says:
The Government couldn't say how much the total prison capacity would increase by, compared to the current capacity, nor could it say how much the extension would cost.
"Well, I mean, I can't give you a number now because it's commercially sensitive," Mitchell said.
The Government said the $1.9 billion boost also includes the money that was already budgeted for Labour's yet-to-be-completed 600 beds. There was $750 million set aside for that.
Don’t you find that a bit off? Having a press conference, on a day when crime is an especially sensitive topic, to announce that you’re building new prison cells - and then refuse to say how many, because it’s commercially sensitive?
There was a separate section at the end of the article titled, “Jenna Lynch Analysis”, and by “analysis”, I think they meant “opinion”.
To be fair Newshub did label the headline “opinion”, and Jenna was certainly offering hers:
That will go down as the worst performance this Government has had at a press conference.
Journalists left there confused - worried about what to report because nothing was clear and in fact, nothing they said was right.
Then finishing with:
This is supposed to be one of National's strong suits - crime, crackdowns and numbers. Mitchell had clearly done his homework on the spin but not the substance.
This is a good lesson for the minister to be across the detail. He will be under no illusion that his performance was sub-par.
Over on 1 News Maiki Sherman was rather more circumspect. Having come under pressure to be less neutral, following a flood of complaints that she looked insufficiently contrite while reading out the coalition’s poor poll results last week.
So she merely described Mark Mitchell’s performance as “slightly shambolic”.
However Jo Moir over at RNZ was not pulling any punches saying that “the Prime Minister and Corrections Minister repeatedly provided incorrect information about their planned prison spend-up.”
Under questioning from RNZ, Mitchell confirmed of the 810 new beds, 100 of them were already budgeted for by the last government for mental health and addiction services, and another 500 were general prison beds.
He told RNZ, "we will be delivering 610 in May". When RNZ asked if there were an additional 200 to come, Mitchell responded yes.
Luxon continued to reiterate it was an "810 bed extension" but did not provide detail about whether that was on top of the 600 the last government budgeted, or explain his answer being at odds with his minister's answers.
Opposition leader Chris Hipkins was quoted as saying that it was a “horrific performance” and there were many more questions than answers.
So how bad was it?
Put it this way, Mark Mitchell was so bad that for once you didn’t immediately think that Jason Walls was the village idiot in the room. Which is quite an achievement.
To be honest Mitchell is lucky he’s one of the boys, otherwise he might have suffered the same fate that some of his female colleagues did recently for being useless.
It was hard to recall a time when a Minister had looked so inept. About the only thing Mitchell seemed sure of was that the slushie machines were just fine by him.
It’s certainly not the National party of Simon “SLUSHIES!” Bridges.
The media weren’t the only ones unimpressed. Debbie commented on my post about photo ops, “They have no idea and answered nothing. I had to switch it off before I rolled my eyes so far back in my head I'd be able to see out my backside.”
Over on X Paul said, “Now that the problems aren't electorally useful they will ignore them, almost like they never cared to begin with. NZ deserves better!”
I’d agree with that. After all the promises to fix everything, to get tough on crime and keep people safe, all while sending out memes that equated Labour being in power with home invasions, we do deserve better.
Some solutions that actually work, and if you’re going to run with the populist ones that get you elected, but don’t actually work, could you at least choose something cheaper?
Because seriously? With everything else that’s going on we’re going to spend $1.9b on prison beds?
That’s a heck of a lot of money, even if you don’t count the part that was already budgeted by Labour. Think about how many school lunches, or jobs, or “back office” services will have to be cut to pay for those.
Still at least those who’ve lost a job or who are doing it tougher under this government because increases to the minimum wage are smaller and fair pay agreements are gone, are not making those sacrifices simply to fund tax breaks for property investors.
No sir.
They’re also taking one for the team so millions of dollars in profit will go to the bottom line of private prison companies who are presumably soon to enter commercially sensitive negotiations with the coalition.
My apologies if that good feeling was short lived.
I was very sorry to hear of the passing of Willie Hona yesterday. Always loved Herbs.
This is one of my favourite tracks of theirs, co-written by Willie. Sad news indeed.
Nick, for years NZ has been paying for politicians (and officials) to visit countries with better crime and prison stats. Did none of them find anything helpful, I have to ask? We're still on the treadmill. Always talking about increasing the number of beds as the end solution. Duh! Not a single one of the recent cuts is going to reduce crime. Most will increase the incentive for crime. ...and I must have my glass still half full overnight because while you went for what Luxon would cut to get that $1.9b, I was thinking how it could be spent on more: support, houses, health, education, and ...community police. The bobby on the street who knew what was going on. Was in touch. ...Yep. I'm delusional.
Ŷou’re right Nick in that Mitchell is so fortunate to be a male politician therefore no sacking for him or an on going media feeding frenzy. He’s supposedly one of their best which points to how bereft of ideas and inept this Govt is.