I should be crying, but I just can't let it show
I should be hoping, but I can't stop thinking
Of all the things I should've said
That I never said
All the things we should've done
That we never did
All the things I should've given
But I didn't
Oh, darling, make it go
Make it go away
Songwriter: Kate Bush
What happened?
Damn, that wasn’t supposed to happen. I’d hoped to be writing about America electing its first female President this morning. That hate and prejudice had been overcome by hope and decency, and finally, the US had woken from its Trumpian nightmare.
But the long night, and possibly days, of uncertainty, didn’t eventuate. From the early results, the trend looked to be in Trump’s favour, and unlike last time around, the numbers failed to tighten as the night went on. The swing states anticipated to be so close went one by one to Trump.
Early in the evening, claims emanated from the Republican campaign of wide-scale fraud in Pennsylvania. A false narrative, presumably an insurance policy against the prospect of a narrow loss. Curiously, as Trump emerged victorious, those claims seemed to disappear. So far as I’m aware, none of the people spreading those rumours yesterday are demanding a recount or an investigation today.
So what the hell happened?
As expected, there was a large divide between the sexes, with women favouring Harris by about ten percentage points and men opting for Trump by a similar margin. It feels very unhealthy that males and females are so out of alignment, but it is nothing new.
What was surprising, at least to me, was that fewer women voted for Harris than had voted for Biden. The anticipated wave of female support sweeping Kamala to victory didn’t eventuate to the degree required.
There are some more surprising results when we break things down by ethnicity. In particular, the level of support for Trump from Latinos and something I still can’t get my head around - a majority of white women voted for Trump. What the hell?
How the heck are so many Latinos voting for Trump? Is it the anti-abortion thing due to conservative social values? He belittles them constantly, and they vote for him - do they think he means other Latinos? Do they not remember the images of children in cages, separated from their immigrant parents, the last time he came to power?
Education tells the story of this election and the Trump movement. I don’t say that to belittle those who voted for the man; that is simply what the data shows.
Trump won with voters without college degrees, especially men. Voters of colour supported Harris regardless of education level, while even white males with a college education backed Kamala. And don’t go blaming older people; those aged 65+ narrowly supported Harris.
An odd acceptance speech
Unlike Harris, Trump had not received many celebrity endorsements. I won’t criticise the man for that; I find the whole endorsement thing quite weird. However, as they were few, he seemed to have invited most of them on stage to say a few words during his speech.
It was very odd. A golfer and someone who runs cage wrestling who gave shout-outs to some very dubious people, causing even my rather cynical son to roll his eyes.
In his crowd, Nigel Farage looked smug; does he ever look anything other? I was waiting for Elon Musk to come out in a Stormtrooper costume, and I’m not talking about Star Wars cosplay. I wonder if Trump has given him the launch codes yet?
It was “a movement like no one has ever seen before”, said Trump, as if he was tweeting boastfully from his golden throne.
He said it was the Golden Age of America. My son wryly asked, “Do you think they need more American flags?”
He even mentioned his wife’s book during his speech. How messed up is that? Even when accepting the most powerful position on earth, the man is on the make.
How are people feeling?
How the hell are women in America feeling? It’s appalling; all of these gross things from Trump and people not only don’t care, but they seem to lap it up. It is revolting; so much of the rhetoric has been anti-women, horrible misogynist bullshit from a man who boasts about sexually assaulting women, and people said - yep, he’s the one for me?
It wasn’t only Trump winning, but referenda in some states failed to secure abortion rights. Florida, Nebraska, and South Dakota chose not to protect women’s rights.
An American friend who used to live here but is back in the States, someone whose children learned dance with mine, said, “I wasn’t going to cry this time, but here I am… cue the waterworks! So sorry for my daughters.”
Another friend who grew up over the fence from me in Rotorua was in New York, and she simply commented, “hideous”. A family friend who never comments online about politics said: “terrifying”.
Here are some more comments, with the names changed:
Chris: I find it so difficult to understand why people would vote for this guy who treats people, especially women like utter crap, he lies and lies and lies, threatens violence and is all about his own massive ego, not about the people. Sound familiar?
Marilyn: …I feel for them. He caused so much misogynistic and racial damage last time, not just in the States but worldwide, including here. I think some of the horrendous treatment of Jacinda was because of his disgusting rhetoric.
Dianne: I just don't understand their thinking. What message are they sending to their sons, daughters, wives, mothers, and other women in their lives? I just don't get it. At. All.
Toni: That ANY woman would vote for a rapist, and a felon in other areas, is seriously grotesque.
Karen: I've never been so grateful to be a Kiwi and never so sad as I am for American women tonight.
Clare: My American friends are in a state of shock and disbelief. The same way I felt when my native Australia voted No in the recent referendum. I felt the way I do today, frightened and distraught about the state of the world. God help Palestine and Ukraine.
Annie: I honestly can’t get my head around it. It's easy to dismiss as a US problem, but the flow-on effect for the rest of the world worries me. I’m a NZ woman, and I am crying. Not just for American women, but for women all over the world.
What now?
Trump will never have to run for election again. He will have the Senate and the House, so he can do pretty much whatever he wants.
He has the Supreme Court, which will overturn any attempt to hold him to the law. In the next four years, he will certainly influence other judicial appointments, including replacing any remaining Supreme Court judges who are not aligned with him and are looking to retire with sycophantic rubber stampers.
There are no restraints, and voters have shown that they don’t care if he breaks the law. The courts will protect him in any case. He has no restraints and no handbrake.
This man who has so little regard for anyone but himself is again the most powerful person on earth, but this time, he does not need to seek re-election, and he won’t have anything much in the way of opposition from the other layers of government to keep him in check.
Many people will be looking forward to being pardoned, like those who tried to seize power four years ago. Maybe even old Rudy Giuliani might be resurrected back into some sort of role - he must know where a few bodies are buried. I’m talking figuratively, I hope.
What is Elon Musk's role now? What power will he have? He will be free to do whatever Trump says he can, and Donald enthused during his speech about his love and admiration for Musk and his rocket programme. While just generally being a dick seems to be a key driver for Elon, I’m sure there are other things he is after.
So what the heck will Trump do? It’ll be good news for billionaires, catastrophic news for the environment and climate change, and terrifying days for women and immigrants. Press freedoms and any constraints being placed on big tech companies will be a thing of the past.
Even independent countries will not want to risk his ire. Nobody will stand up to him, from newspapers to sports teams to business owners. He can do anything; who will stop him?
Some of the hyperbole around a move to fascism is unhelpful. Still, the influence he will wield over the justice and intelligence services of the US will be far from the sort of independence seen previously in that country.
And we’re only a heart attack from a 78-year-old man fond of fast food from having JD Vance as president. Trump has already exceeded the average lifespan for an American, and I have to say, despite whatever note he can produce from a “Doctor”, he hardly seems to be in above-average health - beyond remaining above ground.
Anything good or lessons to learn?
I tried to think of some positives based on the issues raised during the campaign.
That was about it, but what about things we can learn?
We must realise that people don’t vote on identity politics or social issues, no matter how important they seem. They just don’t. In the same way, people don’t vote because of climate change.
This result wasn’t due to the vagaries of the US electoral college system, which can distort the people's wishes—Trump actually won the nationwide popular vote by almost five million over Harris.
This election also saw a high turnout of voters. There is no denying it, no way of spinning it: Trump won, fair and square. He was the choice of the majority of Americans.
If there is any other positive, it is that the victory was clear, so there will be no conflict over the results, although that doesn’t mean there will be no increase in violence.
Look at how our own election has empowered racists to spew their poison and then multiply that by Trump. Every bigot in the US is going to feel validated by this result - and they have guns and a green light to put things right.
A lesson, too, for the left here. We can’t win in just the cities. We must reach people in rural areas and towns, in solid National seats. Strong local candidates in the provinces are vital to earning trust.
As we watched, one silver lining emerged in the Rockel house. My wife said, “At least you’ll have plenty to write about,” so there is that.
What a time to be alive, eh?
Take care, all of you lovely people. If you’ve enjoyed this writing, please consider supporting this newsletter with a paid subscription. This is my full-time gig, and every little bit helps if you can spare the equivalent of a couple of dollars in return for an average of six newsletters a week.
The first line of this song is, “I should be crying, but I just can't let it show.” Don’t believe it; I sobbed like a baby; you’ll probably want a tissue.
Thanks Nick for your thought provoking article. My self talk is to tell myself not to obsess about this election result as worry, fear and sadness won't make any difference so the only thought I want to express is how can someone who spreads dis & mis information, who is a convicted felon, who didn't peacefully transfer power or concede defeat when he lost in 2020, who attempts to bully opponents, who is friends with some very dubious world leaders end up as leader of the so called "free world" ?
Overwhelming sadness! Democracy doesn’t work in this world if the rich and powerful can manipulate the minds and emotions of the masses