Matariki Hunga Nui

Is this Aotearoa's best public holiday?

Morena folks, wishing you a very peaceful and enjoyable Matariki long weekend.

Our newest public holiday might just be my favourite. There’s no commercial drive to buy presents nobody wants, or to make scheduled declarations of love.

It’s about the past, the present, and the future, about whanau and kai, and us—a celebration of Aotearoa recognising the Māori New Year.

A maturing of our nation, hard as that might be to feel at the moment, and if it makes a few old racists grumble, then all the better.

Sharon Murdoch: “Mānawatia a Matariki! Happy Māori New Year!”

Mind you, any day at the moment when we wake to find that WW III hasn’t commenced is a good one…

Trump’s art of distraction

This morning, in the latest update on whether they will be mad enough to pour more gasoline on the Middle East, we have news that Trump will decide in the next two weeks whether to turn a regional conflict into something far more far-reaching.

Almost like there was some benefit to him in dragging this out, as suggested by this cartoon posted by Robert Reich this morning:

Following weeks of unrest with ICE rounding people up seemingly based on skin colour, with little regard for due process and a focus on meeting quotas.

Rising prices contradict Trump’s claimed success in his trade wars, and with his efforts to give tax cuts to billionaires unpopular, he faces a dilemma. Brought to power on a platform of isolationism, of putting Americans first and not entering any more endless wars, what should he do?

And so he waits to see which way the wind blows, whether the domestic escalation of authoritarianism that was begun to distract from Elon Musk’s claims is enough or whether he needs a foreign war to focus attention away from his failings.

My guess is that when push comes to shove, he will back down, as he seems to on so many things. He will see how unpopular an interventionist policy would be with the very people who elected him.

Trump can’t run again, although that doesn’t mean he won’t seek to stay on beyond his term, but his ego is strong, and the only thing that I think might save us is if he decides that peace benefits him more than the alternative.

Perhaps he will intensify his divisive efforts domestically. However, this also appears to be becoming increasingly unpopular, as evidenced by the number of attendees at his parade compared to those joining the “No Kings” protests last weekend. I’m guessing the crackdown on immigrants is losing support, beyond his hardcore supporters.

Apparently, there has been quite a reaction to this video, which demonstrates that this isn’t a left/right issue, but a human one, as more and more Americans see respected members of their communities being ripped away unjustly.

Today, US Time, is Juneteenth, which commemorates the end of slavery, another opportunity for Americans to consider how far they have come and how they must reject a return to treating people grotesquely based upon the colour of their skin.

The Cost of Living in Aotearoa.

From an article in Stuff yesterday: “Labour has overtaken National as the party New Zealanders consider most able to handle the cost of living, according to the latest Ipsos Issues Monitor survey.”

We’re all familiar with the price of butter. I shared the following saying: “Hard to believe that people are questioning whether National is the party to sort out the cost of living crisis. No wonder they’re going on about how well farmers are doing.”

This is a huge deal. The cost of living was a significant aspect of the last election, with National claiming it would make Kiwis better off, and it has been the number one concern for Kiwis in that poll since 2022.

As the government takes to the field for the second half, the reality is that few NZers are better off as a result of their efforts in the first half. Mr Wealthy and Sorted, he of the $60 weekly grocery bill, looks increasingly out of touch with the issues most Kiwi households face. And it’s not just butter that’s unaffordable:

But wait, there’s more…

“Labour also remains New Zealanders' top pick on the number 2 issue, healthcare - rising 4 points to 40% to National's 24, up 1 point - with the issue also increasingly a concern, hitting another new record at 43%.

These top issues matter; they’re what people vote on. We get all excited about the Culture Wars or Climate Change, but most people don’t vote on those, and those who do, I imagine, move between parties on their side of the left/right divide, rather than crossing it.

An interesting aspect of the full report is the suggestions that those polled made. Below are those captured on Health, and please note I haven’t just shown the ones that sound like leftie views, this is the complete set:

If there is a saving grace with Trump deciding whether to go to war with Iran, not, of course, based on any fiction about them possessing WMDs like their aggressive neighbour, it is that self-preservation might encourage him to do the right thing, if nothing else.

I wonder the same of the National Party; they can dismiss polls all they like, even the trend showing Labour moving ahead of them, but privately, they must see that if they don’t do something about the Cost of Living and the state of our Healthcare system, then they’re toast.

The fact that they are failing to deliver in these critical areas will make their outright denial of alternatives a harder message to sell.

Some of you may have seen Nicola Willis yesterday at Scrutiny Week, where, despite her role as Finance Minister, she instead focused on slagging off the announcements made by the Greens and the non-announcements made by Labour, until Chlöe Swarbrick banged her head on the table as an indication of her frustration at a Minister who fails to take any responsibility despite being in charge.

Ms Willis is pushing it uphill if she thinks she can go into the next election still blaming Labour for everything after three years in charge, while spending more than the previous government and running things into the ground.

People aren’t stupid, Nicola, and claims of economic nous and getting back on track will ring pretty hollow for many when they can’t afford a pound of butter.

I’ll wrap it up there for today, as I began. I wish you all a very safe and happy Matariki. It feels like a positive counterbalance to so much that is negative. Remember those gone, spend time with those you love, and dream of a better future for Aotearoa.

Ngā mihi,
Nick.

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If you’d like to read more of my writing on Matariki, here are a couple of previous newsletters you might not have read or might enjoy re-reading:

This is from two years ago:

And this from three years ago:

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My apologies to paying subscribers, I couldn’t bring myself to put a paywall on today’s newsletter. I hated the thought of someone opening it to read it and being disappointed. I’m bloody hopeless at that side of things, back to normal next time.

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To end today, a very special new song, Matariki Hunga Nui - Calling Me Home. Do give it a watch.