National Hunker Down
Luxon ejects Penk, the latest poll results, and the kingmaker.
Gave my cloudless sky for your crooked scraper
I put in everything; I called in every favour
But give a man one sword, he thinks that he's a saviour
Watch him ride around, fucking weird behaviour
Songwriters: Maisie Peters & Julia Michaels.
Loyal and united.
When I last left you, Christopher Luxon had just trotted out his colleagues to declare that he had their full support and that the caucus was united.
Once again, he was utterly inauthentic and is obviously not learning anything from his media advisors, because nobody who watched that brief press conference came away thinking, “Now there is a united group of people.”
It probably didn’t help that some of Luxon's 100% united team looked as if someone had their pet off-screen with a gun to its head.
Vikki suggested Luxon was “Dead man walking” while Catherine said, “It felt like a eulogy”.
Todd noted, “I've seen more joy in dentists’ waiting rooms.”
Irene wrote, “All breathing sighs of relief that Penk was the fall guy. This lot look like they're attending a funeral, not being part of a united team. If Luxon thinks this is over, he's very much mistaken.”
Penk walks the plank.
Luxon identified a scapegoat, even though it appeared that Chris Penk was opening the door for other candidates who sat on their hands, and removed him from his Ministerial responsibilities. This shows that Luxon might not act in response to racism, but challenging his leadership is beyond the pale.
Penk later said that, after discussing it with his family, he would pull up stumps altogether and walk away from politics, despite having one of the safest seats in the country, Kaipara ki Mahurangi, where he took almost 60% of the vote in the last election.
To be fair, if you’re familiar with the expression “they could put a National Party rosette on a fence post, and it would get elected”, this was the electorate the writer of that quip probably had in mind.
I posted:
With Chris Penk now retiring rather than standing again, National lose one of their brighter members from a field of deadwood. A disastrous day for that party.
Don’t get me wrong, I found some of his socially conservative views repugnant, and it was pretty ill-considered when he suggested our Nuclear Free status was disposable, but he also recently stood up for his community against National’s Fast Track legislation with a development that was opposed by the council and locals.
Mostly, though, he gave me the impression of being quite intelligent and capable, even if I disagreed with his views. Members with those qualities are in short supply in the current National caucus, and the following tweet made me wonder whether he was being considered by another party:
Who wants a National Party safe seat?
Alex imagined the undignified scramble to claim Penk’s seat, the former Helensville electorate that John Key held despite living nowhere near it. He suggested:
Angee Nicholas (Henderson candidate, unlikely to win, but high on the list) (more likely)
Nancy Lu (high on the list, probably more a contender for Luxon’s Botany seat)
Paul Goldsmith (after years of not being able to win Epsom)
Melissa Lee (after years of not being able to win Mount Albert)
Nicola Willis (less likely)
Or someone completely unknown
Of these, I remember seeing Angee Nicholas speak at the 2023 election, and I was impressed by how genuine she seemed and how family-focused she was. She almost won the Te Atatu seat, with Phil Twyford winning by just 131 votes. It would be good to see more diversity in the National caucus.
I wondered whether the electorate-less Willis might be having her own family discussions about relocating. Despite being from Wellington, she’d probably find friendlier faces out in the sticks, and she has been playing dress-up for the part. Here she is telling some lucky farmer about fiscal holes.
On 1 News last night, Chris Hipkins said, “The National Party is in complete disarray; they are in no fit state to provide the sort of leadership that the country needs. The National Party might not have been able to get rid of Christopher Luxon; New Zealanders can on the seventh of November.”
Chlöe Swarbrick made me smile when she said, “The PM got to have a chill, nice lunch for three hours with his caucus members, and then they came out and said, ‘don’t worry, guys, it is all good’. I think we can clearly see the reality of what’s happening; I think New Zealanders have pretty good BS radar.”
Over on TV3 News, they were even more scathing, and Matthew Hooton didn’t hold back on the party's inability to roll Luxon:
I was disappointed that Luxon wasn’t rolled, not because I thought any of the other candidates would be any better, but because our country deserves a leader of a higher calibre than Luxon, and god forbid the voters of this country return him to power.
From the left’s point of view, it was a great result. A new leader could have given National a boost in support, but now they look even less stable and united than before this strange episode of crying wolf.
The 1 News Verian poll.
On a big day in politics, the latest TVNZ poll, which would have led the bulletin on any other day, was pushed down the programme despite producing a fascinating result.
This would leave the left with approximately 59 seats, short of the 63 required, while the right would fall short with 57.
Both blocs would require the TOP party, either in coalition or as a supply partner, to form a government. If this poll were reproduced on election day, TOP would be the kingmaker, with a small group of non-elected board members deciding which way the country would go, contingent on negotiations.
Christopher Luxon’s off-the-cuff decision to rule out working with TOP looks more like an own goal, although, to be fair, I wouldn’t trust him not to go back on that. Realistically, there is little common ground across ACT, National, NZ First, and TOP.
I still struggle with TOP. I really like some of their policies and the attitude they have brought to the campaign, but with no prior parliamentary experience, I struggle with the idea that they will hold the balance of power.
Still, for all that, I trust them a damn sight more than I do Winston, so if we must have a Kingmaker, I would rather it was Q than you-know-who.
It looks like it’s going to be quite a run-up to the election, and I look forward to bringing it to you. A request: if you find my writing entertaining or informative, please consider subscribing. At $80 for a year, it’s less than $2 per week. If you’re a Gold Card holder, there’s a 15% discount, bringing it down to $68 for a year.
Have a great day, all you lovely people, and take care.
Ngā mihi,
Nick.
To end today, here is Maisie Peters with Kingmaker.
While Penk might have been one of the sharper knives in the drawer he's unlikely to be the biggest. What concerns me more than this fiasco is the ( notoriously untrustworthy Nat skewed ) TV1 Verian poll showing Hipkins behind Luxon in the preferred PM stakes. WTF. He should be miles ahead. As should Labour and the Greens, after weeks of Luxon finding room in his mouth for both feet. Perhaps Polls have taken third place over statistics in the 3 types of lies.
Watching Luxon bletherin again about unity plus other untruths in his 57 second announcement and refusing to take questions I once again thought "Oma rapeti, oma rapeti, oma, oma, oma" ... ye gods the utter arrogance and cowardice of this mana-less man - like trump his monumental ego will never let him quit for the good of his party and country - roll on November 7th.