Not Jude!

The return of the Crusher?

And anytime you feel the pain, hey Jude, refrain,
Don't carry the world upon your shoulders.
For well you know that it's a fool who plays it cool
By making his world a little colder.

Song: Lennon/McCartney.

---

Talofa folks,

Today’s newsletter is about Judith Collins, who, despite a career marred by dirty politics and a catastrophic defeat as leader of the National Party in 2020, remains in the picture as senior figures jostle to replace Lame-Duck Luxon, who is struggling to lift the government in the polls…

The Talbot Mills poll.

Thomas Manch of the Post said of the latest poll, “Another political poll has the Government on the precipice of public support, offering it little reprieve during a winter of economic gloom.”

Like other recent polls, the announcement yesterday of the latest Talbot Mills result indicates that the left and right blocs are neck and neck, which is not where the National Party will want to be halfway through their term.

Manch continues:

According to this poll, the Coalition Government parties would receive 64 seats if electorates fell in line with the outcome of the 2023 election, which is by no means a guarantee.

The Labour Party and its likely coalition partners, the Green Party and Te Pāti Māori, would receive 61 seats.

The party results were:

• Labour 34%

• National 32%

• Greens 11%

• NZF 9.3%

• ACT 8%

• TPM 4.4%

Things are really close, and the left only needs a swing of about 2% to take the lead, a significant decline in support for a government that had a clear victory in 2023.

Unpleasant realities.

Take a deep breath, some of you won’t like the next bit:

If the 2.8% of people who opted for the leaderless TOP party in this poll chose one of the opposition parties instead, the left would already be ahead.

Do TOP voters really want to be responsible for this ghastly government being returned for a second term? I don’t imagine so, but that is a likely outcome if they receive a similar fruitless level of support next year.

If you didn’t like that, buckle in because the next one might be even harder to take.

The same is true of those who vote for Labour in the Māori seats at the general election. Assuming that TPM remain below 5% each Māori electorate that goes with another party will reduce the number of seats on the left, and that too may be the difference between winning and losing.

Right, back to more palatable things…

Worse to come.

The National Party will be well aware that the only positive economic forecasts for the remainder of their term are coming from Willis and Luxon, with no credible economist supporting the optimistic outlook of their vibes.

In the poll, 78% of respondents said the economy was either “poor” or “not so good”, whereas 21% said it was “good” or “excellent”. While I’m amazed that one in five Kiwis believes the economy is going well, that’s not much of a base to win an election from.

The likes of Bishop, Willis, and Stanford are circling for the top job, but how on earth is Judith still in the frame?

Perhaps the PM should’ve sent his predecessor to the Siberian reaches of the far back bench, as is traditional? Bugger keeping your enemies close, that’s where they get attention and build support, not much chance of that if she was just another rubber stamper further down the pecking order.

Minister of everything.

Showing the naiveté of someone who had only been in the place five minutes, Christopher Luxon, having replaced Collins as leader, instead gave her a series of ministerial responsibilities.

It almost makes you wonder what she has on the man.

Seriously, Judith Collins is the Attorney-General, Minister of Defence, Minister for Digitising Government, Minister for the Public Service, Minister Responsible for the GCSB, Minister Responsible for the NZSIS and Minister for Space.

That’s a long list, and includes the NZSIS role that, by convention, is taken on by the Prime Minister, and was undertaken by John Key, Bill English, Jacinda Ardern, and Chris Hipkins. However, the work-shy Luxon decided to take on no ministerial responsibilities whatsoever, limiting his role to posing for TikToks, shaking hands, and doing absolutely nothing to keep his ministers in line.

So what of Judith?

Well, fresh off the back of telling the country that secondary school teachers earn $147,000, which she would have us believe was her negligence rather than a massive lie to sway the public against teachers, Crusher has been up to a few other things…

Nobody tells Luxon anything.

As SIS Minister Judith Collins receives sensitive information, it turns out she’s somewhat selective about when she passes it on to the Prime Minister.

So, who knew what, and when, about the controversial opening of the FBI base in Wellington?

• SIS Minister Collins was informed on May 7th

• Police Minister Mark Mitchell found out two months later, on July 7th

• Foreign Minister Winston Peters was told on July 8th

• Christopher Luxon was briefed on July 24 - just six days before FBI director Patel arrived.

Always the last to know, eh?

FBI director Kash Patel speaks after announcing a new office based in Wellington. Photo: US Embassy.

Actually, some were even less well-informed. The first thing that senior MPs like Nicola Willis knew was when the men in suits arrived at parliament.

Clearly, Collins follows a policy of only telling those who need to know - but surely the Prime Minister ought to make that list, even if it appears that some consider him little more than window dressing.

From Newstalk ZB:

Both Collins and Luxon were asked why Collins didn’t pass along the information earlier, as well as whether informing the PM was general practice.

They declined to comment.

Green Party foreign affairs spokesman Teanau Tuino said, “It looks like Chris Luxon isn’t in charge or control of the FBI setting up shop on our soil.

It was a long time between when [Collins] knew what was happening, and then of course when the Minister responsible for Police knew what was happening.”

Not a great look for the PM or the government, but they did have some new ammunition to fire back…

Something else to moan about.

Having initiated a second phase of the Covid inquiry, meeting NZ First’s cooker requirements, the government has made much of key Labour figures opting not to appear in person, but answering all questions they were asked.

Prime Minister Dame Jacinda Ardern led New Zealand through the Covid-19 pandemic. Photo: Mark Mitchell.

Now that the cost of their legal support has been revealed, I can well imagine that the very parties who called for the inquiry will complain about the associated costs.

Not that there was ever any question of the taxpayer footing the bill, as the NZ Herald’s paywalled article notes: “The Cabinet Manual says former ministers should be indemnified over things done or decisions made in the course of their ministerial duties.”

A Labour spokeswoman said: “Cabinet decided on this inquiry and its costs. All legal appointments were approved by Minister Judith Collins as Attorney-General and payments handled by Crown Law.”

I imagine if this becomes an issue, Collins will jump to the defence of the Labour people, pointing out that “the Government also covered the legal costs of former National ministers Paula Bennett and Anne Tolley when they were involved in legal action filed by Peters over the leak of his superannuation information.”

Not really, that’s not Crusher’s style, but it’s nice to imagine that the Attorney-General would have the character to speak up honestly.

Yeah, right.

Defence Force Scabs.

I found this next one pretty chilling, not in its current scope, but considering where Crusher might opt to take it in the future, as National is certainly not keen on unhappy workers striking - it reflects poorly on the government.

From RNZ:

The government has introduced new legislation to let the Chief of Defence Force sign off on having uniformed staff fill in for striking civilians. Soldiers cannot take industrial action, but civilians employed by the Defence Force can.

In December, Defence Minister Judith Collins signed off on having soldiers cover for colleagues including security guards and firefighters who were working to rule. This included things like refusing overtime, taking combined breaks and stopping any work at heights or off-site.

PSA national secretary Fleur Fitzsimons said, “This legislation will make it harder for Defence personnel and their families to achieve fair pay rises, and it is by design. Last year, PSA members at the Defence Force were offered a zero pay increase and were only able to achieve a better offer after taking strike action.”

That’s bad enough, but my concern is where else they might take this. What other sectors might the government like to remove the effectiveness of strike action from?

How about using unqualified charter school teachers to cover teacher strikes in the public sector? Or utilising the defence force to cover other roles in which they have no training, but can keep the lights on?

Would you trust them not to do that? Especially Judith?

Defence Minister Judith Collins Photo: RNZ / Samuel Rillstone.

Do you want Judith Collins as the next National leader and possible future Prime Minister of this country?

Let me hear you say “yeah, nah”, and furthermore “Na na na nananana, nannana, not Jude...”

Today’s newsletter is open to everyone. If you’d like to support my mahi and have full access to all my writing, you can subscribe to Nick's Kōrero for just $7 a month or $70 per year, until this Sunday.

Ngā mihi,
Nick.

To end, below is Paul McCartney with Hey Jude live at Hyde Park.