For quite a few years I’ve been saying that Nicola Willis would be our next Prime Minister. I was wrong. I hadn’t bargained on Jacinda stepping down. But I still think she’ll be the next one after Chippy.
National could win the next election, and it will be very close. But in the end I think it will be a narrow win for Labour with support from the Greens and possibly Te Pātai Māori as well. The reason I think they will lose is Christopher Luxon.
These are uncertain times and while some might have thought Luxon was the next John Key, he palpably is not. Besides which many people had by the end had a guts full of Key and his shallowness. It is hard to imagine New Zealand going back to a second rate clone of Key after this government, or perhaps that is just wishful thinking on my part. In any case I’ll stick by my prediction.
If National lose this election I would expect Nicola Willis to become leader in the new year in a well managed and communicated change. Seriously, can you imagine anyone other than Willis becoming the leader after Luxon? Realistically if he doesn’t win this year that’ll be the end of Luxon. I don’t imagine either he or Nicola have the patience to wait another three years.
But I don’t think Willis will be the next PM just because Luxon provides such a vacuum of leadership. I think she will be because she is a better candidate than her predecessors - Luxon, Collins, Muller, and Bridges. She is clearly the top performer in the current National caucus.
I’ve written quite a bit about Nicola Willis in the past. Some of it not very complimentary portraying her as a Ruth Richardson wannabe and making jokes about gruel portion sizes under her leadership.
But the truth is while I completely disagree with her political views. Hmm regular readers might want to sit down for this bit. She is highly intelligent, a hugely capable politician, and may not in actual fact be the Wicked Witch of the West. Although I can definitely see Chris Bishop and Simeon Brown as flying monkeys.
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