Seymour's Principles Rejected
Majority of Kiwis oppose bill, or are too uninformed for a referendum.
Look inside, look inside your tiny mind, now look a bit harder
'Cause we're so uninspired
So sick and tired of all the hatred you harbour
So you say our treaty is not okay; well, I think you're just evil
You're just some racist who can't tie my laces
Your point of view is medieval
Fuck you (Fuck you), fuck you very, very much
'Cause we hate what you do
And we hate your whole crew
So, please don't stay in touch
Songwriters: Lily Rose Beatrice Allen / Gregory Allen Kurstin.
An inconvenient truth
The results are in, and based on the 1 News poll, it looks like about one in five of us support the Treaty Principles Bill, almost two in five oppose it, and the other two, almost forty per cent of the population, don’t know enough to offer an opinion.
The people have spoken, at least those who have chosen to pay any attention. As for the rest, you’ve got to wonder which country they’ve been living in for the last year.
The only thing I think we can say for certain about the people saying that they don’t know is at least they’re being honest about the fact that they have chosen not to become informed. Given that record, it’s hard to imagine that they would bother learning more if we had a referendum, which is what David Seymour wants.
A referendum, I mean, not having many uninformed people decide the future. He wouldn’t want that, would he?
A little help from some friends
Well, as it turns out, as seems to be the trend, the Taxpayers’ Union (TPU), the comms department of the ACT party, had their own conveniently timed poll. From a source that has been seriously discredited and tends to show much higher support than the other polls for the ACT party, at quite convenient times.
By way of example, this week, both Verian (1 News) and Curia (the Taxpayers’ Union) ran polls over almost identical polling periods. According to the one from the TPU, the gap between ACT and Te Pāti Māori is 7.5%, whereas in the 1 News poll, it was just 1%. One of these polls is bullshit - can you guess which one?
Now, can you guess which one the ACT party will be using?
Yeah, it’s that oh-so-friendly and supportive one from the TPU that shows their party on 13%, even though no poll from The Post, Talbot Mills, or 1 News-Verian has shown ACT above 10% since prior to the election. So they posted this yesterday:
Perception is reality. If the real poll shows people don’t like your bill, use the numbers from your good mates’ poll instead.
The question above seems misleading and designed to distort participants' views by pigeonholing them into something they don’t want. Where is the option saying, “They’re already decided; there’s no need for any of this?”
Having a referendum when many people don’t fully understand the issue or the consequences yet vote in large numbers swayed by populist slogans and inaccurate rhetoric is a really bad idea.
Brexit anyone? Although many who voted for that xenophobic lemon no doubt still stand by their vote, you’d be hard-pushed to find anyone who could make a convincing argument that it has benefitted the average person in the UK.
Similarly, it is hard to imagine many in this country could factually claim they have somehow had their freedoms curtailed or been disadvantaged by the things Seymour’s bill seeks to end. But that doesn’t mean they won’t happily vote for it, secure in the knowledge that they are somehow better off.
This shouldn’t even be a discussion. Just because bombarding people with more messages might lead to a majority saying they want a referendum doesn’t make it the right thing to do.
Can’t we trust the people?
On the face of it, you might ask, what’s wrong with a referendum? Shouldn’t we trust the people? Shouldn’t the government deliver what the majority wants? Isn’t that democratic?
To which I would say - no and no.
Trust the people? Sounds good, doesn’t it, in a perfect world.
One where people are well-informed, understand the nuances of an issue, and are not simply moved by misleading soundbites that obscure the facts. Given that we don’t live in such circumstances, it’s probably not a great idea, is it?
And if you’d like some evidence to back that up - look at the government that the majority of people in this country elected.
As for parliamentarians bowing to public pressure and mob rule, well, people not only make decisions against their best interests based on nonsense, as above, but they also change their minds. Remember Covid?
Changing our minds
Back in 2020, the Kiwi public said, “Yeah, nah, we’re not so keen on dying during this pandemic; it’s a pretty good idea to keep people safe.” They returned the Labour government in a landslide, turfing out Winston Peters, who had been the only party leader to engage with those protesting against health measures.
Roll forward to 2023, and it’s all. “I can’t believe they spent all that money on Covid - it’s bloody outrageous, so let’s kick ‘em out. I’m sick of being looked after and all this putting people first, commie bullshit.”
The result is this lot.
A vote for change where people said, “Yuck, I didn’t like the last couple of years; make it all go away,” and voted for people who had no intention of looking after anyone except perhaps landlords and foreign energy companies.
We cannot be trusted to make sensible decisions or be consistent. Besides, many of us would vote along partisan lines anyway, so the election becomes less a referendum on the topic at hand and more about who supports what.
Backing our team
Take a look at John Key’s flag referendum. Our flag is awful; it’s got a big Union Jack in the corner, and it ought to go. But were those of us on the left going to back replacing it? Oh, hell no.
Forget that the alternate design was awful or that the whole selection process seemed predetermined. Many of us who loathed Key backed the current flag, not because we were particularly attached to it but to send a message in what became a referendum on whether people supported Key, not just a flag.
Same deal with the Cannabis referendum. People voted along party lines. The National party strongly backed the ‘No’ position, their entire caucus voted against it, and their supporters followed suit - regardless of whether they had a good understanding of what they were voting for or not.
That was their party's position, and it’s the same with Māori issues.
Over the last few years, the ACT and National brands have been closely aligned with the views of anti-Māori groups like Hobson’s Pledge, and it isn’t hard to see their supporters backing an anti-Māori position in a referendum. Not because they have an understanding of the issues or because they’re racist, but simply out of party loyalty.
But can we trust Luxon?
Many of us felt that Luxon was weak and self-motivated during coalition negotiations, capitulating into giving Seymour his divisive bill so he could be PM. It turns out with the recent revelation that ACT did not treat the bill as a make-or-break, bottom line, that assessment was correct.
To date, Luxon has been unequivocal in saying he won’t support the bill further. The concern is that if the polls show support for this bill, will he stick to what he has said, or will he decide he’d rather walk that back than see ACT gain the support of a large number backing the bill?
Luxon’s track record at putting the country's interests ahead of his own is not good. Why would anyone believe that that would change now, just because he said so?
Do we really want to trust something like which flag we have, or whether we continue down a road of progressing treaty issues versus deliberately trying to undo that work, to whichever political grouping happens to be in the ascendency at the time the question is asked?
Maybe that sounds a bit grim, a bit of a brain-half-full assessment of my fellows, and a lack of faith in democracy. We’re supposed to believe in democracy, right? Perhaps this is a better way to put it…
I trust the people. Most of us are fundamentally good and fair, and few have ill intentions.
Yet, there is an ongoing struggle against those who seek to make people believe untruths and act against their own interests.
As for how successful they are in doing that - let’s not put it to a vote.
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Have a great day, all of you lovely people. If the mood takes you, you might like to sing along with this ditty below, perhaps with a wave in Seymour’s direction. 🙂
Apparently YouTube says you have to go there for any of the live or uncensored versions of this song - so click here.
My apologies, a couple of good typos there. Funnily enough we didn't have Covid back in 2000, Covid 1999 sounds like a bad sci-fi.
Also the video didn't work so I've had to include a link to that instead.
Updated now.
It really does annoy me that any media takes Curia poll at face value. They’re not even members of the Research Association of NZ any more. Totally untrustworthy.