Swaying TOP's Way?
National rules them out, but what about Labour?
Say you'll stay
Don't come and go, like you do
Sway my way
Yeah, I need to know all about you
Song: Bic Runga.
National rules out TOP.
Yesterday, National ruled out working with TOP. After some rather grey messages, Christopher Luxon made things black and white by confirming that his party would not be joining any queue to negotiate with Q.
If you took it at face value, there was some integrity at last from Luxon. TOP's policies are incompatible with theirs; if anything, their Land Tax is an even harder sell to middle NZ than either Labour’s CGT or the Greens' Wealth Tax, so why wouldn't he?
Many, of course, saw through his announcement as being more about stemming the flow of votes from the right to the centrist TOP than about any genuine commitment to who he would work with, with many assuming the stated position will be worth little if the PM finds himself in need of support.
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But it could well work, and I suspect that it will hurt TOP, as playing the centre allowed them to attract votes from both the left and the right. The Spinoff put together some graphics to show where TOP voters were coming from and the sort of government they would prefer to have.
While TOP are attracting votes from across the political spectrum, more come from National, NZ First, and ACT than from Labour and the Greens.
Conversely, if we look at the type of government TOP voters want, there is a preference for a Labour-led government.
