Tell us about it, Janet.

The future for National and Labour.

Writing in The Post today was Janet Wilson, Todd Muller’s Press Secretary for the five minutes between Simon Bridges and Judith Collins when the National Party considered a return to being the party of conservative gentlemen farmers, it had long been.

As we know, Muller froze in the headlights, and while Deputy Nikki Kaye did her best, no one else in the party seemed interested in helping her.

National soon reverted to the wealth-obsessed, greed-driven approach introduced and exemplified by John Key and now continued by Christopher Luxon—a party that is blue on the outside but ACT yellow to its core.

Labour and National locked in a race to irrelevance

The initial point of Janet’s article is the trend away from the two traditional major parties to third parties.

“Support for both parties at the last election was collectively the lowest in a generation at 64.99%, down from 81% at the 2017 election and 76% in 2020.”

We can see that continued in this week’s polling.

Tuesday night’s 1 News poll had combined support for the two major parties at 63%, and in yesterday morning’s RNZ Reid poll, it was 63.9%. Roy Morgan polls, which tend to favour smaller parties, have shown a series of results with combined support for the two main parties below 60%.

Labour Party leader Chris Hipkins and National Party leader Christopher Luxon. Image: The Post.

Janet takes a look at the two major parties, and I was stunned by her next sentence, a remarkably candid admission from someone so closely associated with the party:

The Blue team.

“National, for generations a moderate centre-right party, has under the three-party coalition dropped any pretence of compassion and swapped it for uncaring cruelty.”

Bloody hell, I couldn’t have said it better. We’re not in Kansas anymore if we’re seeing Janet Wilson calling out National for having “dropped any pretence of compassion and swapped it for uncaring cruelty.”

She wasn’t done there, either:

“Rather than attempting to quell the rising rage between the haves and have-nots, they’re busy harnessing it with traffic light systems and sanctions on where beneficiaries can shop if they don’t comply with their obligations.”

She’s not wrong, but again, it seems strange to be hearing it from her. The government is doing what I used to joke darkly that a company I once worked for did to people: we set them up for failure, and then we punish them when they fail.

The government lays off thousands of people in the public sector, they strangle the economy, resulting in large-scale job losses in the private sector. Then, when people are out of work, at their lowest ebb and looking for a hand-up, our government punishes them, implying that they’re not trying hard enough.

The Red Team.

Janet also has a few things to say about the Red Team, which some of you may not like, but I don’t think she’s entirely wrong. Talking of Labour, Janet said:

“Its parliamentary leader is ensuring that, rather than appearing revived and refreshed, it’s still the same risk-averse critter it was last election, creeping cautiously – again – into suggesting tax reform and endlessly complaining about the Government while not presenting any alternative of its own.”

Labour is undoubtedly focused on the government's actions, with very good reason - people need to see these things for what they are. However, Janet has a point: where is the alternative vision?

At a high level, we know Labour are going to prioritise “Jobs, Health, and Homes”, but how?

What exactly are they going to do, how are they going to pay for it, and for goodness’ sake, this time, can we make it look like there is a well-thought-through plan and election strategy, because it sure didn’t feel that way in 2023.

Last time out.

On the one hand, I firmly believe there is little that Labour could’ve done differently that would have won them the last election.

The post-COVID tide was against them, and yet their offering was, as we all no doubt remember, uninspiring. For goodness' sake, GST off Fruit and Vegetables was a white flag up the pole, saying we’ve got nothing more to offer; see you in three years.

Where was the Helen Clark Hail Mary of Free Student Loans and the Working for Families package, which managed to see off the dreadful Dr Brash?

For Labour and Chippy the 2023 election seemed to be about saving the furniture by not losing too badly, there was certainly no risk taken with policy offerings.

In 2023, it was disappointing but understandable; the same behaviour again in 2026 would be unacceptable. I cannot see the opposition defeating the coalition without a bold vision to get people to the polls. As dreadful as the coalition has been—and they’ve been woeful—Labour has to offer something bold and enticing as an alternative.

Being better isn’t enough.

From all I see Chippy is a very measured individual. There is no question in my mind that he would, again, be a far superior Prime Minister to Christopher Luxon. He is honest, empathetic, highly intelligent, and a very decent man. However, he must take some risks if he is to become PM again.

If there is a repeat of the timidness in policy that we saw in 2023, I don’t think the left will win next year.

Yes, Chippy has to appeal to middle New Zealand, but he also has to make it compelling; the default behaviour of Kiwis will be to sleepwalk into giving the coalition a second term. They need something to believe in to choose change.

When the National Party sought to return to its roots, the party leaders were left hanging, as their parliamentary colleagues and perhaps many of their voters did not want to see the Blue Team revert to being old-fashioned Tories rather than money-driven politicians.

That party is now trapped between ACT and NZ First, wary of taking a stand on anything lest they lose votes to their eager partners, who have no other genuine source for votes.

On the other hand, if Labour presents a clear vision for this country, based on its traditional values, offering a better future, with more egalitarian principles, then I think people will get behind it, big time.

We know you’re a good man Chippy, by far the better Chris, but you’ve got to excite us, and we will back you in droves.

Yes, we can.

The Greens set out their stall for a Green economy, and they were viciously attacked from the right for doing so, but they saw an increase in the polls, and that rise in votes did not come at the expense of a matching reduction in Labour support.

A bit more tub thumping, a bit more “yes we can”, and I reckon that, despite it being only halfway through the first term and with variable poll results, there is an appetite for the traditional role of the Labour Party.

A party that stands for a fair go for all and a helping hand without judgment when it is needed.

So let’s have a bit less, “No, not that”, get rid of “maybe we could”, and have a whole lot more - “Yes, we bloody well can!”

Sounds like just what the country needs to me, how about you?

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To end today, we need more of this, will.i.am with “Yes We Can”. I found it quite an emotional watch. Have a great day, all you lovely people, and I hope you’re able to stay warm and dry as the bad weather hits.