The fourth parties.
If the next election is as tight as the polls currently suggest then one or more of the smaller parties may hold the balance of power and determine who the next government is. So what are their prospects?
For the purposes of drawing a line I’m talking about parties that are not already in parliament, so the Greens and ACT don’t count despite the fact that third parties historically do badly when an election is tight. Both parties would seem to have a core level of support that is unlikely to fall below 5%
Similarly the Maori Party is not included. Having won Waiariki during an election that saw a landslide to Labour they are unlikely to lose it back this election when Labour will realistically get less support than in 2020. The interesting thing will be whether they get one, two, or possibly three seats in the next parliament.
The protest outside of Parliament recently seemed to take the role of an Expo for many of the smaller, fringe parties. An opportunity to talk to a high concentration of likely supporters, and all going well appear on the 6pm news. While some parties were involved in organizing the protest like the Destiny house of fine indulgences, or the New Cons(ervatives), the event actually resulted in the birth of a brand new party – Democracy NZ.
Yes, flush from the excitement of a media platform and appreciation from the flotsam and jetsam of the electorate assembled outside of parliament, ex-National MP Matt King has decided to start his own party. The Democratic Party - apparently for those who don’t want to follow the rules of the democratically elected government of the day
So what of the existing parties that fought the last election?
Most visible of course is New Zealand First (NZF). Surprisingly their social media game is strong with a ghost writer who not only knows how to appeal to the worst base instincts but has seemingly forgotten they were in power only 18 months ago when many of the things they complain about were the same.
They seem to have decided that their core audience is those who are anti Maori privilege, anti “new” New Zealanders, and with a twist of hardcore law and order. In railing against so-called Maori separatism in the form of Three Waters, He Puapua, and the “Treaty of Waitangi gravy train” they are playing in an already crowded field.
David Seymour is quite content to blatantly play the dog whistle, skipping about like the pied piper appealing to the rats to follow him – claiming to want equality for all.
National play their whistle somewhat more subtlety and when caught red handed pretend they definitely didn’t and they care about treaty rights. They hark back in their messaging to a simpler time when the likes of Todd Mueller ran small town businesses and had good relations with the Maori who worked for them.
TOP, the only left-wing minor party of any note, has some good policies and some well meaning intelligent people involved. But the reality is they couldn’t get elected when they had a leader with the profile and deep pockets of a Gareth Morgan, they certainly won’t without anyone well know and without any money.
Will we see a Christian party crusading in 2023? The occasionally mooted break away by National MPs to form a socially conservative party separate from the more liberal part of the party has not happened. In 2020 there was the ONE party, representing the sort of Christian fundamentalism that would sit well with quite a few in National’s caucus but they only received eight thousand votes.
The New Conservatives have the Old Testament values covered opposing gay marriage, euthanasia, abortion, and generally preferring that women returned to the kitchen.
But they have a similar issue to TOP, loathe him or loathe him Colin Craig certainly had profile and a lot of money when he was the leader of the Conservative party that proceeded them and failed to make it to parliament.
They do have the bonus though of ex-leader Leighton Baker’s daughter who as was seen during the recent parliament protest can make up absurdly false stories to live video to drum up funds and visibility, like a televangelist’s wife.
Speaking of evangelical wives, will Destiny Church run Vision NZ again under Hannah “needs a new BMW” Tamaki with their platform of intolerance toward earthquake causing homosexuality, making loud noises on motorcycles, and tithing?
Another party you might wonder about, although probably not, was Advance NZ. The unwanted love child of Jamie-Lee Ross and Billy Te Kahika. Established to fulfill Jamie-Lee’s optimistic assessment of his own popularity in the wake of the Simon Bridges scandal and Billy TK’s grifting ambitions, it was no wonder that they fell apart after the last election.
Whether someone wants to grab this poisoned chalice, Billy has run of money, or the voters depart to one of the myriad similar parties is yet to be seen.
It is not like other options for this demographic don’t exist – the Outdoors Party was founded on opposition to 1080, vaccinations, 5G, and lock downs. Essentially Advance NZ without the “charismatic” leaders.
The problem for them is that many of these parties are after the same voters. The anti mandate/we hate Jacinda crowd between them might get quite a few votes but they are going to be spread out over numerous parties, none of whom will receive more than 1-2% of the vote.
On the one hand many would say – oh it’d be such a shame if those poorly educated, misinformed, woman haters saw their votes wasted - a real shame. On the other hand it is not good for democracy that so many votes do not count.
I think the threshold should be lowered from 5% to 2% making it viable to actually get new parties into parliament; it is nigh on impossible at the moment even with a wealthy benefactor and a natural constituency.
Note 2% of those who cast votes at the last election would have been slightly fewer than 60,000 votes – surely a group large enough to deserve representation.
This lower threshold would also make the concerns over the coat-tailing provision rather moot. At most a party could bring in one extra MP having won an electorate seat but being below the threshold
So what odds of any of these parties getting into parliament in 2023?
NZF have the best chance and are probably 50/50 on returning, but realistically with the current electoral system, and the splitting of minor party votes, there is essentially no chance that any of the other parties will be elected to parliament.
The one proviso would be a grand coalition between NZF/Democracy NZ/New Conservatives/Advance NZ/Outdoors/Vision NZ under a single banner promoting law and order, guns, an end to Jacinda, freedom to be bigoted, and enough tinfoil to reach the moon or at least ensure any accurate information about Covid is repelled.
The Advance NZ people tried to come to such an accommodation at the last election but were unable to get the others to agree. Although not particularly democratic it probably keeps the leaders of these parties where they want to be. A bit of publicity to stroke the ego or fill the contributions pot but their whole appeal would be lost if they actually became part of the system.
So there is certainly a small chance that either NZF or the Maori party holds the balance of power between Labour/Greens and National/ACT after the next election. But the likelihood of any of these other fourth parties being there?
Pretty remote I would have thought.