The Return Of Winston.

Will the Kingmaker decide one more time?

There is a truth that right wing parties, and commentators who support them, do not want to talk about.

It’s fair to say that based on recent polls National and ACT look to be leading the running at this election. Some polls have even shown them with a small majority. But there is something that increasingly makes that scenario look precarious.

It isn’t the fact that Christopher Luxon has failed to connect with the public, and that people don’t trust him. Reality is if you look at the National Party list they’re quite confident they can stand a middle aged white guy in a suit, no matter how unelectable he might seem, and their voters will back him. How else could you explain the likes of Sam Uffindell or Chris Penk? They sure as heck aren’t there on merit.

The scenario is not that voters notice all the extreme weather events around the planet, happening more and more frequently, and decide to cast their vote accordingly to take action.

The biggest risks to National and ACT are not their leaders, although it is hard to imagine two less relatable people, or things such as their ambivalence to the climate crisis. It is Winston Peters. Because if New Zealand First get above the 5% threshold then all bets are off. Even the best of poll results see the majority on the right disappear if Winston crosses that threshold.

It leaves a very ugly scenario for Christopher Luxon with ACT and NZF unable to co-exist in a coalition. David Seymour having explicitly ruled out going into coalition with Winston.

Winston Peters and David Seymour (Source: 1News).

Their policies are largely incompatible, Winston’s old fashioned conservatism - is essentially the National Party of old. Before they were captured by neoliberals who replaced the traditional hardworking, family orientated, focus of the party with the pro-business, greed is good, stance from the likes of Luxon and Key.

Plus there is the small matter that Winston and Seymour seemingly hate each other’s guts. Not just a little bit - a lot!

This would leave Christopher Luxon potentially leading a minority government with either NZF or ACT, and the other party sitting on the cross benches, providing support on a case by case basis. Failing agreement National would need to reach out to Labour or the Greens to get legislation passed.

So what has the wily old Taniwha of the north been up to? Well he was in the headlines just yesterday showing he still has his finger on the pulse. To be fair if you were as old as Winston you’d probably check it too.

I hadn’t realised that English was in need of extra protection in Aotearoa. To be fair it seems to be doing quite well without state intervention. While it’s easy to understand why Te Reo and sign language were made official languages to support and encourage their use up until now the somewhat odd anomaly that English is not an official language hasn’t really caused a problem.

Peters said it's "just common sense" to enshrine the language, protecting it from attacks he sees being carried out by "the new fascists" in government.

He also rallied against "ideological mumbo jumbo pushing to change the name of our country to Aotearoa".

In other words Winston is not actually concerned about the plight of the English language at all. Winston is concerned that those motivated by anti Māori sentiment, usually fertile ground for NZF, look like they will be voting for ACT and National and he wants some of those sweet racist votes.

When it comes to Winston it’s New Zealand First, Aotearoa Last.

It’s a hard road for Winston. First he spends the whole term cosying up to the anti-vaxxers and pretending he had nothing to do with Covid restrictions. Then the government ends the restrictions. What if these people aren’t angry any more?

I wouldn’t worry too much about that Winston. From what we’ve seen of these people they’ll always be angry at something, no matter what it is, no matter who the government. Still, maybe the cunning old fox has some other policies that are more substantial, and not just silly gimmicks. On their page NZF have a list of their 2023 commitments.

• End vaccine mandates. Hmm might be time to update that list guys.

• Commit to sorting out Pharmac so they will concentrate on performance not puffery. I have no idea what this even means.

• Designate gangs “Terrorist Entities” under the Terrorism Suppression Act 2022. I’m not sure how this helps, can’t we just call them Baddies and be done with it?

• Develop the Dargaville Aerodrome, support a Waste to Energy plant to be located in Northland, a four lane highway alternate for the Brynderwyns, connect rail to Marsden Point and Northport, and move the Ports of Auckland operations to Northport. So not so much New Zealand First, as Northland First then.

• Stop indoctrination by removing gender ideology from the curriculum, especially from primary school. Seriously, is this actually a problem? If so, what is it?

• Ensure no men are in women's spaces or sports. How depressing, are we really bringing this garbage here? Really?

• Hold the 2026 Commonwealth Games in Christchurch. Are you serious? The Victorian government have just agreed to pay the games organisation $380m in compensation after they pulled out of hosting the event over the growing cost.

While that might appear to be a pretty uninspiring set of policies I suspect NZF will get back into parliament. If not it will be very close and cause a large number of centre right votes to be wasted.

NZF are standing candidates in 30 electorate seats, but realistically only have a chance in one - Northland. The seat Winston won in a by-election back in 2015, and where Shane Jones is standing this year.

The vote will be quite split, as in addition to candidates from the main parties Matt King, the former National MP for Northland, is standing for his Democracy NZ party. A party born of the parliament protests against Covid health measures.

I don’t think Shane Jones will win Northland, but I suspect NZF might get across the 5% threshold.

While I think it would be better for Aotearoa if New Zealand First did not get back into parliament, there is a possible silver lining.

Many bemoaned the lack of progress in Labour’s first term due to Winston applying a handbrake to many things they, and the Greens, wanted to do. The same people would be only too happy to see NZF limit the damage that an unhindered National/ACT government would cause to our country.

There will be voters who don’t want the Labour Party to continue in government, but aren’t exactly keen on National giving the green light to the extreme policies advocated by ACT.

If the polls continue to indicate a change in government some Labour voters may be tempted to give their vote to Winston. In order to ensure he gets across the line and can hamper David Seymour’s bleak vision for the non wealthy in this country. I would most definitely not suggest doing that.

Winston has said that he will not go into coalition with Labour. He is also 78, and even Winston is going to have to retire at some point not much further away. He’s also not exactly renowned for doing what voters expected prior to an election.

If his choice, at this stage, is between sitting on the cross benches stifling an ACT/National government, or doing a deal with someone else that sees his baubles of power returned, what do you think he’ll do?

There is a new poll out tonight on One News, so I guess we’ll see how he’s tracking.