The Right Direction
Labor Landslide as Liberal leader loses seat.
When you came along boy, you were different from the rest
Never tried to hurt me like so many men before
Made me feel important, something special in your eye
Knowing that you care for me has made me come alive
Songwriters: Garry Paige and Mark Punch.
The headline in the Guardian this morning sums it up:
Australia re-elects Anthony Albanese as Labor rides anti-Trump wave to seal crushing win
Halle-bloody-lujah! Many of us hoped for a Labor victory, but thought it would be much closer.
The issues were similar to our last election: the cost of living and global uncertainty, and the incumbents were up against a party claiming it would get Australia “Back on Track.”
Unlike our Labour Party, Anthony Albanese’s Labor was not in power during Covid, so were free of such associations. They also benefited from Trump's election. But nobody expected a victory of this magnitude.
With around 20 seats to be confirmed, Labor has already comfortably won a clear majority, with 85 seats. The following chart shows party support:
While the margin between Labor and the Coalition was only a few percentage points, Australia’s preferential voting system can mean that a slight shift dramatically changes the outcome, creating a significant gap between the winners and losers.
“He has pulled off one of the great political victories since the federation, and that is what we are seeing tonight.” Treasurer, Jim Chalmers.
Many Aussies, a clear majority, will wake up this morning a bit dusty perhaps, but delighted to know that they have stuck with a government that, while by no means perfect, represents their interests and values more than the defeated coalition.
Well done, mates, go you good things, and Dutton is a gone burger. I’m envious.
We all have family and friends over the ditch, so beyond this being one in the eye for the right, I also see it as a positive for their lives.
There are many images of happy, ordinary people celebrating the election of a government that cares about improving their lives, and I’m jealous as hell. I want to see that so badly here; I can’t wait!
And it really means something to our Aussie mates, as said here by Jess Loudon, an Australian living in Aotearoa:
Today, Australia chose to reject bullies. To reject bigotry. To reject prejudice. To reject racism. To reject misogyny. To reject small-mindedness. To reject fear and fear-mongering.
We are not America. And Peter Dutton - you have lost your credibility, your career, and your seat by trying to copy the hatefulness of a morally repugnant person such as the current President.
In your place comes a woman (perish the thought!), an advocate for people with disabilities and an unswerving commitment to her constituents as opposed to accumulating personal wealth and spilling bile and vitriol. We are lucky to have you Ali France for Dickson
Australia has spoken, Mr Dutton - we reject you and all you stand for. Don’t let the door hit you where the good Lord split you. Bye Felicia!
Dutton loses his seat.
Early in the evening, I was watching the ABC coverage, and the political pundits who were quite reluctant to make predictions were increasingly making noises about the Liberal Party leader and would-be next Prime Minister of Australia, Peter Dutton, not only losing the election but also his seat and his career.
It was not looking good for Mr Dutton from the get-go, and about an hour after the results started coming through, I shared an update: “Jane Hume has denied reports she has been ringing parliamentary colleagues to discuss the Liberal leadership post-election, saying she was just offering ‘pastoral care’.” Saying, “Gee, that's a bit early.”
Dutton lost, which was even sweeter when you saw who had won. You can read all about the winner, Ali France, here.
The best of nights, and the worst of nights.
The election night gatherings looked much like those of the equivalent parties here. Labor’s crowd was diverse, multi-cultural, and full of hope, although the results might’ve helped that.
The Greens looked down-to-earth, a polite way of saying a bit unkempt. A younger crowd and wildly enthusiastic, even though one in eight Aussies would vote for them, they look like they will end up with few or no seats to show for it.
“One thing is clear, we have kept Dutton out. We said very clearly we do not want Trump-style politics coming to Australia, and Peter Dutton lost his seat.” Green Party leader, Adam Bandt.
The coalition looked old, wealthy, and white. One commentator noted that it is failing to find support among younger generations and has become a party of older voters. Still, I remember someone saying the same about the Republicans in the US a few years back, and yet here we are.
Preferential Voting
In circumstances like last night Australia’s preferential voting system can suck for smaller parties, locking them out almost as completely as First Past the Post.
It can benefit larger parties, though, avoiding the situation we saw in 2023 with split votes. In Tamaki Makaurau, several seats went to National even though the combined Labour/Greens vote was larger. Under a preferential system, those seats would’ve gone to Labour.
In Australia, over 12% of the population, one in eight people, voted for the Greens, with approximately one and a half million votes, yet they may end up without any seats or at best one or two.
So next time, some bright spark proposes getting rid of MMP to avoid tail wagging as we’re seeing with NZ First and ACT, think twice. With last night’s result, roughly a third of Australians will find that their votes equate to little representation in the next parliament.
The Trump factor.
Thousands of miles away from Australia, the man who would impact their election and, no doubt, many others in the next few years, was busy posting photos of himself as the pope.
Yes, this is how the leader of the free world spends his time despite having plunged his country into recession.
Other right-wing leaders must be cringing about the effect of his culture wars, economic vandalism, and bullying of friend and foe, domestic or international, on their contests and being associated with Trump or seen as weak in standing up to him.
Reports that the world was turning right appear misplaced, as nations like Canada and Australia not only buck that trend but saw a significant shift left in their polls after Mr Trump took power.
While some of us might see this as a rejection of Trump’s nonsense, the Murdoch people at Sky were bemoaning the fact that culture wars had not been sufficiently inflamed in this Australian election:
Ugh. No doubt Peters and Seymour are taking note and won’t derelict their duties in that arena.
Summation
In these post-COVID years, and please note I mean post from a political or economic viewpoint, not a health one, incumbent governments have struggled to hold power.
We have just seen the Liberals do so in Canada, almost entirely in response to the threat that Donald Trump represents to a country that does the majority of its trade with its southern neighbour.
But this result in Australia wasn’t just holding on to power, it was a route, and it’s hard to see it being about Trump to anything like the degree that the Canadian result was.
Across the Tasman, people trusted Labor on the cost of living, where they didn’t trust the left here in 2023. Why is that?
Albanese isn’t the most charismatic leader, but he is intelligent, decent, and able to articulate things well—descriptions that could also apply to Chris Hipkins.
National will undoubtedly put a brave face on things and say it’s BAU with the incumbent retained. But they must look at the results in Canada and Australia and be at least a little nervous at how poorly the centre-right parties have fared.
Regarding the rights and the lives of Kiwis, Labour is a much better option for the hundreds of thousands of New Zealanders living across the Tasman, including my eldest Alex, who has been in the lucky country for a long while with his partner.
This result is good for them, good for the rest of Australia, and a bloody good example to the rest of the world that in tough times, when offered two less-than-perfect options, you don’t take the one that is worse for the vast majority of people.
Well done to our mates across the ditch, they should be bloody proud. I don’t usually celebrate Aussie wins, but this one… You bloody beauties!!
The next time some right-wing talking head spouts off at how we should be more like Australia, I’m going to say Too bloody right, mate - let’s do this!
Have a good Sunday, all you lovely people. One day, not so far away, it’ll be our chance to feel that joy and relief here. 🙂
To end today, the sublime Renee Geyer, with Heading in the Right Direction. Always popular when I was growing up in Rotorua, and someone had a guitar.
Good news from across the ditch. Glad Dutton fell, he's nasty. This, and the Canadian result, should be a warning to the right wing in NZ - echoing Trump is not a great idea.
Great news for Australia. I just hope that by the time we get to our next election Kiwis vote the same way, but the Atlas masters and acolytes seem to be digging in. There’s a lot more nastiness to come and we don’t have compulsory voting, so the risk of those that are disenfranchised, feeling there is no point voting, staying home on polling day is something that needs to be dealt with. It’s good to see how many people are getting behind protests and making submissions on Bills; if that motivation and momentum can be sustained and expanded, we might just get rid of this destructive mob we have in power.