National are back in the game with the recent One News Kantar poll having shown that together with ACT they were 1% ahead of Labour and the Greens. Yesterday’s Curia poll had the two right parties 2% behind the left, but clearly it is going to be neck-and-neck.
Even though the polls are heading in the right direction for National they keep losing MPs they want to keep and keeping MPs I’m sure they’d want to lose. The amount of talent left in their caucus has become, to put it politely, quite limited and has resulted in people being promoted into positions they would not be in if National had more experience, more of a talent pool to draw from.
If we look at the top three positions on the front bench Luxon has only been there for 18 months, Willis has been there almost 4 years, and Bishop 7 and a half years. The same experience between the three of them as either Jacinda Ardern or Grant Roberston have individually, and none of the three has yet achieved anything of note in parliament.
Now that might appeal to some in the public who are fed up with career politicians but come a return to the campaign trail, and debates next year, they could be shown up very badly.
While National are doing well in the polls at present it is at a time when they are in full campaign mode, offering a lower taxes lolly scramble or to abandon all Covid restrictions, whereas Labour are still in the thick of running the country at a difficult time.
Come the actual campaign I think the current government is likely to be re-elected, albeit narrowly. Both Clark and Key won third terms and I suspect there are still enough people happy with the way Ardern has run the country, despite the high volume of those who are furious at her being leader, to win again.
Plus I have long thought that the next National leader of this country would be Nicola Willis and she is not in the top job – not yet.
There are three likely scenarios in terms of a change in government:
Luxon becomes PM in 2023
Luxon becomes PM in 2026
Someone else leads National into the 2026 election and wins
Assuming National does lose in 2023 what will the appetite of the caucus be to retain Luxon as leader for three more years?
For someone as ambitious as Nicola Willis, or Chris Bishop, scenario 2 assuming National hold power for a couple of terms has got to be unappealing and represents a very long wait for leadership. It would be at least 2032 before there was a change in leader and likely at least a term or two after that before there is another National PM.
How long can the new “young Turks” wait? And by that name I’m referring to Willis and Bishop who have both shown a strong desire, and have an opportunity, to take over the National Party from the old guard for the next 10 years.
I don’t include Luxon who was helicoptered in out of desperation to have another John Key. Seemingly without him having much prior interest in politics Key convinced Luxon that he would be a good captain to replicate his own achievements.
The problem is that many in the country have not forgotten, and are not ready for another John Key. But also that Luxon isn’t Key, he can’t carry off the kiwi blokeyness that Key managed to fake.
No, the new “young Turks” are very much Willis and Bishop alone, part of their problem is that they don’t seem to have a third member let alone a fourth. They are less the “fish and chip brigade” than the “Tuesday night curry club combo for two”.
You just know Bishop licks the plastic tray for the last morsels of Madras as Willis giggles and feigns disapproval. What they’d both disapprove of is if the order was extended to the remainder of the caucus - it would see the addition of 31 mild butter chickens. The first rule of curry club is, you don’t order butter chicken.
Willis and Bishop have emerged at a time when many of the strong candidates for top roles in National - Amy Adams, Nikki Kaye, Paula Bennett, Simon Bridges, etc. have moved on or about to.
Following the next election there will be a new caucus, new talent that will be well established and ambitious for top roles by the time another opportunity arises for the top job. Sometime in the future when Luxon toddles off into the distance with his knighthood. Leaving the country wondering what the hell just happened – so, maybe a bit like John Key after all.
Bishop is the more publicly visible of the two, he is happy to laugh at his own expense and in so doing he has a wealth of material to work with. He is like Key in that regard, ready to make himself look silly, the court jester, a bit of a bloke. Willis on the other hand has all the warmth and charisma of Ruth Richardson.
She is not a cruel person like Ruth Richardson, the person she is most compared to presumably as the last female Finance Minister and also due to quite a similar appearance barring the hair cut.
Where Ruth would have shrieked in the face of the orphan asking for more gruel and cackled “from now on you will have less”. Nicola Willis would look kindly, or what she imagined kindness looked like, at the orphan and say, “For your own good there is no more. We want you set up for life by being hungry for success”.
On the other hand Chris Bishop would simply hand them a packet of cigarettes and tell them these will help with the hunger pains - first pack is free.
In the same situation Luxon would say that god would provide for the little scallywag’s needs but would he like to hand around this basket of boiled sweets before landing. The bewildered orphan looking up at him as Luxon intones, “these are my body given for you; do this and think of me”. Bishop and Willis rolling their eyes
So what odds that National will win in 2023 – what are they taking to the electorate?
Yesterday Luxon announced that they would recommence off shore oil drilling – really? Who is this supposed to appeal to? Surely pretty much everyone that supports it is voting for National or another right wing party already.
There must also be people leaning towards National who have Green values as well, perhaps they want a more business-focused government but one that also values the environment. I can’t see how deep sea drilling helps them get elected.
Similarly the socially conservative wing of the party is problematic in terms of appealing to middle New Zealand.
Of the National caucus 9 out of 33 this week voted AGAINST safe spaces for women outside of abortion clinics. Something the leader Chris Luxon did in earlier readings of the bill, Willis and Bishop on the other hand have supported it through out.
National cannot spend time at the next election fighting for the most socially conservative voters on the right of the party any more than Labour can spend time fighting the Greens for the far left vote. The votes in the middle will determine the composition of parliament.
We can only assume National will have a larger, more talented, and more diverse caucus after the election. The current demographics are just awful and completely unrepresentative of NZ be it by race, gender, or sexual orientation.
Many National supporters of course won’t care about this, there are some no doubt who will spout nonsense about picking the best person for the job with no awareness of how laughable it is that the best person for the job according to them is coincidentally always white.
These are not the people National needs to attract votes from, they’ve already got those who attend Don Brash’s soirees in Tauranga. They need to attract voters who look at their current line up and think - what is this, 1955?
People like David Bennett, Harete Hipango, Maureen Pugh, and Karen Kuriger are absolute dead wood, woeful under performers, they need to be told to retire. The country must look at them and wonder what on earth the other potential candidates were like for these people to be chosen?
Similarly there are people whose best days, such as they were, are well behind them. Surely it is time for the likes of Gerry Brownlee and Judith Collins to go, what is the point in them hanging around?
So if you wanted to see National win in 2023 what would you do? Surely you’d come up with some policies that appeal to middle NZ above and beyond tax cuts. Tell the fundamentalists in caucus to leave their 1950s puritanism at home. Signal the arrival of new, diverse, talent – maybe beg someone like Nikki Kaye to come back.
But if you were Nicola Willis and your ambition was to be the next Prime Minister you’d perhaps stand close to your leader, but not too close. You’d be the natural person to magnanimously take over after a defeat, close and noble as it was.
You might even make the court jester your deputy.
You might even become Prime Minister.
Great read Nick👍 im glad I signed up to your blog😉😊
This is at the time of a perfect storm. Restrictions will be gone, inflation back to normal of the last decade, oil prices will come down, world wide supply change back to normal.
The people worse affected in inflation and housing crisis, won't be voting National. I think this will be a high water for Luxon, who is as fake as John Key, but can't hide it.