Wayne's World - we're not worthy!

So they elected the Trump candidate, the grumpy old business guy who was going to solve all their problems even though he couldn’t actually describe what any of the solutions looked like, the main thing is his messaging pushed all the right buttons.

Wayne celebrated his new responsibility and commitment to the city by canning his media interviews and taking the day off. Probably needed a day off after singing the night away - “Hit the road Goff” for his predecessor, who wasn’t even standing, to show just how much class he had.

Plus it showed the media their place with Wayne, and you know where that is - so much class! I guess we should probably leave the “put a photo of that journalist in all urinals and piss on him” pledge behind, I’m sure he didn’t mean it any more than any of his other pledges. Let’s just say that in Wayne’s World the media, and I’m sure those who didn’t support him, well you know the line - “we’re not worthy”.

Meanwhile two council seats have now flipped left leaving the slimmest of majorities. I’d love to see the look on Wayne’s face when he realises he has all the responsibility but no great authority beyond a single vote on council, or a casting vote if necessary.

Some might imagine that those who voted for Wayne Brown will live to regret it, and well they might. The likelihood of embarrassing gaffes is “near certainty”, that forest fire indicator is screaming-red “don’t even think of lighting a match!”

But it won’t be regrets due to issues like public transport, climate change, or social housing - they have spoken, they don’t care if there is no progress in these areas, certainly not if it means paying a marginally higher rates bill - not worth it.

Local body elections are different than central government elections, but there was a large emphasis from Wayne Brown, and others elsewhere, placed on being the “anti-Jacinda”, “anti this government” candidate - “No more Jacinda! No more road cones!”

Regardless of aspects like the difference between local and central elections, or the terrible voter turnout, these results were grim reading for those on the left and will encourage and embolden those who are furious at this government and Jacinda.

The number one lesson was that those motivated by change get out and vote, and those opposed to this government are looking very motivated! If people stay at home next year, particularly in places like South Auckland, as they have for these local elections the government are toast.

The Covid period has obscured the fact that we are usually pretty evenly split and achieving a third term is hard. This result makes it feel awfully like next year will see a return to that, regardless of the merits of what the PM has achieved, or of what the opposition offers.

So what does the government do now? Should they accept they are almost certainly going to lose and go hell for leather, doing as much as they can while they still hold an absolute majority?

They could pass a lot of legislation, make significant change. The opposition may complain loudly, they might even repeal a small amount once elected, but we’ve seen over the years that National tends to water down Labour initiatives, not axe them.

Labour won’t do that of course, they still have a good chance of winning. But they should enter full campaign mode, abandon anything that will be contentious beyond its worth, or that won’t deliver tangible gains, over the next 12 months.

So what do they need to do? Let’s start with the topic of tax cuts. 

There is money in the kitty and this election, with the “Cost of Living Crisis”, will especially be fought in the hip pocket. At the very least Labour should match the bracket adjustments, there is an aspect of unfairness here that Kiwis really don’t like.

People who have moved tax brackets over the last few years, not because they actually earn any more once inflation is taken into account but because the bands haven’t moved, are paying a higher marginal tax rate than they were.

Labour need a clear policy so that only those on incomes over $150,000 would be better off from tax changes under National. Everyone else would pay the same, or less, than they would if there were a change in government.

Three Waters is not winning any votes. You could argue if it wasn’t this there would be some other topic the anti-Māori crowd would have latched on to. At least this way we’re talking about something people really want - clean water. Few could make an argument that council control of water management is working, especially in large cities like Wellington and Auckland.

But it’s not just the co-governance aspect, there is a genuine philosophical difference between those who think centralised control and management is a good thing versus those who would fiercely defend keeping local control of assets. 

We need a mature dialogue, simply blaming all Three Waters opposition on those who think Maori having a seat at the table is apartheid, or who lose their minds over having someone that looks like Nanaia Mahuta fronting it, is insufficient. Those people do exist, but not in large enough numbers to tell the full story of opposition.

Is Three Waters really the thing the government is willing to die in a ditch over? Personally I think it is a good idea but it isn’t important enough in my opinion to lose the government benches over. 

It might be that I’m overstating the impact of Three Waters on the election, that the people so angry about it were never going to vote for Labour or the Greens in a million years anyway. Possibly, but I wouldn’t risk it at this point in the election cycle.

Another challenge for Labour after five years in government is offering a fresh vision for the future. Many centre voters would acknowledge the good work done by the government during Covid even if there were bits they didn’t like. But now they want to move on with life and leave that behind - why would they want to re-elect the Covid government?

They need to offer a new vision for New Zealand, and it has to be ambitious and believable (yeah I’m looking at you Kiwibuild). It will be a hard challenge for Jacinda to offer new ideas, attracting new supporters, given she is so associated with getting us through crises, but she must as we simply don’t want to be in a crisis any more.

The advantage the PM has is that the opposition’s “new” ideas are tax cuts for the wealthy, trickle down economics, and the inevitable resulting austerity and/or borrowing which they would rather not talk about.

At present the media are very shy in challenging them on this but come election year, with debates and a lot more scrutiny, and it is clear the opposition will have a lot more to do too.

So, is there a problem with local elections?

When you have people in Devonport voting at twice the rate as those in Otara it isn’t a representative outcome it’s - what do affluent older folks want? Apparently that isn’t public transport, social housing, or doing anything to address climate change.

Part of it is that voting does require quite a bit of effort, even if you’re interested in politics. A number of candidates in my area had explicitly listed their opposition to Three Waters, or the expansion plans of the local marae - so they were easy “No”s, but even so the amount of reading required was not a five minute job.

Sadly it shows why older wealthy people, with perhaps a stronger family tradition of voting in local elections and with the time, are so over represented in voting numbers. I don't know what the answer is, I know it isn't blaming people, but part of me is furious at the people who didn't get out and vote, those who had the most to lose from the result.

This weekend was the first time I’ve actually felt - I think we might lose next year.

To avoid that the government need to ensure a clear compelling message of what they will deliver, and what the opposition would bring, that gets people out to vote.

If it’s not too cheesy - a message that WE ARE WORTHY.

All of us.

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