This is great Nick. There have been some amazing electorate MPs over the years, some who have been really impactful locally even for people who would never vote for their party.
Having said that I found it was difficult to make a clear choice. In my electorate only two of the six candidates are seeking the electorate vote and (I think perhaps understandably) much of the discussion in meetings is about wider issues on people's minds (tax, inflation, climate). It was almost as if we needed a separate debate just for the electorate seat. Incumbents do have an advantage as they can (usually credibly) talk about the things they've already done and so electorate seats often change when there's a vacancy.
If you are looking for nominations I would suggest Rongotai (may change the way one smaller party things about "two-tick" campaigns) and Ilam (TOPs only real chance) as good candidates. I went to a meeting in Ilam on Sunday. I was very surprised to hear Raf Manji say he only wanted the electorate vote. WTF? What about the rest of their list? But he's a smart guy and I assume he knows what he is doing.
That is odd. I guess he wants to send the message - vote for the party you want, and get an added bonus of me with your electorate vote. But it essentially means he is running as an independent. Odd considering if he did win they'd probably get at least a second MP based on polling. I don't know much about Rongotai other than Julie Anne Genter standing there, certainly looks like a lot of options - 9 candidates. I wasn't aware that the New Conservatives were still going. Presumably an electorate with many public servants.
Sep 19, 2023·edited Sep 19, 2023Liked by Nick Rockel
It may be that he's thinking the reverse of the Greens who have traditionally been wary of two-tick campaigns as there's evidence they end up suppressing the all important party vote. In Raf's case if he asks for both he may be worried he'll suppress his personal electorate vote as that is their best chance right now.
New Conservatives is most definitely still a thing, although weirdly their former leader Leighton Barker is also running in a party with the catchy name of the Leighton Barker Party.
I heard a NC candidate the other night. They seem to exist in some upside down world where they are concerned about things that likely don't exist (children being forced to change their gender in school) and very relaxed about existential crises that definitely do exist. They are the only party I've heard who come out directly with absolute denial of anthropogenic climate change. And Nick if you are wondering why you've been having all that rain up there - well it's the Tongan volcano....
I'm looking forward to seeing Michael Woodhouse actually have to tout for votes. It is expected that Rachel Brooking will beat him soundly. It is a little hillarious that he spat the dummy when Luxon put him down low on the party list. He is contesting what used to be Dunein North, is now just Dunedin. Ingrid Leary- the current candidate for the Taieri electorate in which I vote ( formerly Sth Dunedin) has had to work hard to engage the voting population since the change in electoral boundaries. The former Sth Dunedin electorate now extends to Balclutha, and brings in rural voters. She takes a small team regularly to Balclutha to be available to the community.
HILLARIOUS NICK!I wonder why the Greens are not standing anybody in Hamilton. Per haps there was nobody suitable- not somethig the Nats care about. Their quality control for candidates is decidedly slipshod. My sister is disappointed that the Greens are not standing a candidate in the Waimakariri region this election. She has decided to vote Green- a first for her. I pointed out that she can still give them her party vote-and maybe vote Labour for the electorate. We weren't sure who the Labour candidate is- doesn't seem to have much of a profile.
I can't speak for the Greens but my view has always been those on the left should give their party vote to the party whose policies they like the most and the electorate vote to the left candidate most likely to win, usually Labour. For example Chloe can win a seat for the Greens somewhere like Auckland Central, but there would be no chance for them in Hamilton East so why split the vote?
I don't know about Waimakariri but I'm guessing it's not likely to deliver a Green winner. Although the line up should help Labour there with only them on the left and then on the right, or outer space, the Leighton Baker Party, ACT, National, and Democracy NZ. Not a lot of other options for the left inclined, not even NZF.
Ultimately though, for most seats, who wins the electorate doesn't impact the overall result so maybe useful for you Sister to bear in mind that it's only really the Party vote that matters almost all of the time.
Usually it's due to member/volunteer capacity. I'm not sure about Hamilton, but Waimakariri (which is part of a branch combined with nearby Selwyn) has only a small number of members. Finding and supporting a candidate takes some considerable effort, especially these days when sadly it's not safe for candidates to attend public events on their own. The amazingly dedicated people in Selwyn/Waimakariri have decided instead to go all out on Party Vote this time. Candidates in nearby urban electorate are helping out when they can.
Thanks Nick that was informative and entertaining. Look forward to the next electorate break down of candidates. Gives some background colour to the election
I am SO disillusioned with the major parties, having alway been a Labour supporter. National wants to sell us out to the Chinese and Labour to BlackRock. I will give my vote to NZLoyal , don’t agree with some of their policies but they aren’t going to sell kiwis out to overseas entities. David Lange made a stand against the US nuclear ships and our country suffered trade embargo from the US. Yes we suffered but the little antipodean country stood up against the dictatorial might if a super power and we were respected around the world. We are a proud nation and I don’t want the bullying tactics of another country to destroy us
I cant believe that those Parties are actually real, let alone the Hamilton candidates described ... I'm sure they're characters in a Monty Python skit 😆
Wonderful , so much for the Nats selection process.
Who would have known that a selection process apparently based on giving Murray McCully a firm handshake could go so wrong?
This is great Nick. There have been some amazing electorate MPs over the years, some who have been really impactful locally even for people who would never vote for their party.
Having said that I found it was difficult to make a clear choice. In my electorate only two of the six candidates are seeking the electorate vote and (I think perhaps understandably) much of the discussion in meetings is about wider issues on people's minds (tax, inflation, climate). It was almost as if we needed a separate debate just for the electorate seat. Incumbents do have an advantage as they can (usually credibly) talk about the things they've already done and so electorate seats often change when there's a vacancy.
If you are looking for nominations I would suggest Rongotai (may change the way one smaller party things about "two-tick" campaigns) and Ilam (TOPs only real chance) as good candidates. I went to a meeting in Ilam on Sunday. I was very surprised to hear Raf Manji say he only wanted the electorate vote. WTF? What about the rest of their list? But he's a smart guy and I assume he knows what he is doing.
That is odd. I guess he wants to send the message - vote for the party you want, and get an added bonus of me with your electorate vote. But it essentially means he is running as an independent. Odd considering if he did win they'd probably get at least a second MP based on polling. I don't know much about Rongotai other than Julie Anne Genter standing there, certainly looks like a lot of options - 9 candidates. I wasn't aware that the New Conservatives were still going. Presumably an electorate with many public servants.
It may be that he's thinking the reverse of the Greens who have traditionally been wary of two-tick campaigns as there's evidence they end up suppressing the all important party vote. In Raf's case if he asks for both he may be worried he'll suppress his personal electorate vote as that is their best chance right now.
New Conservatives is most definitely still a thing, although weirdly their former leader Leighton Barker is also running in a party with the catchy name of the Leighton Barker Party.
I heard a NC candidate the other night. They seem to exist in some upside down world where they are concerned about things that likely don't exist (children being forced to change their gender in school) and very relaxed about existential crises that definitely do exist. They are the only party I've heard who come out directly with absolute denial of anthropogenic climate change. And Nick if you are wondering why you've been having all that rain up there - well it's the Tongan volcano....
Ha Ha - the Tonga Volcano, well I never.
Thanks. A worthwhile read
I'm looking forward to seeing Michael Woodhouse actually have to tout for votes. It is expected that Rachel Brooking will beat him soundly. It is a little hillarious that he spat the dummy when Luxon put him down low on the party list. He is contesting what used to be Dunein North, is now just Dunedin. Ingrid Leary- the current candidate for the Taieri electorate in which I vote ( formerly Sth Dunedin) has had to work hard to engage the voting population since the change in electoral boundaries. The former Sth Dunedin electorate now extends to Balclutha, and brings in rural voters. She takes a small team regularly to Balclutha to be available to the community.
HILLARIOUS NICK!I wonder why the Greens are not standing anybody in Hamilton. Per haps there was nobody suitable- not somethig the Nats care about. Their quality control for candidates is decidedly slipshod. My sister is disappointed that the Greens are not standing a candidate in the Waimakariri region this election. She has decided to vote Green- a first for her. I pointed out that she can still give them her party vote-and maybe vote Labour for the electorate. We weren't sure who the Labour candidate is- doesn't seem to have much of a profile.
I can't speak for the Greens but my view has always been those on the left should give their party vote to the party whose policies they like the most and the electorate vote to the left candidate most likely to win, usually Labour. For example Chloe can win a seat for the Greens somewhere like Auckland Central, but there would be no chance for them in Hamilton East so why split the vote?
I don't know about Waimakariri but I'm guessing it's not likely to deliver a Green winner. Although the line up should help Labour there with only them on the left and then on the right, or outer space, the Leighton Baker Party, ACT, National, and Democracy NZ. Not a lot of other options for the left inclined, not even NZF.
Ultimately though, for most seats, who wins the electorate doesn't impact the overall result so maybe useful for you Sister to bear in mind that it's only really the Party vote that matters almost all of the time.
Usually it's due to member/volunteer capacity. I'm not sure about Hamilton, but Waimakariri (which is part of a branch combined with nearby Selwyn) has only a small number of members. Finding and supporting a candidate takes some considerable effort, especially these days when sadly it's not safe for candidates to attend public events on their own. The amazingly dedicated people in Selwyn/Waimakariri have decided instead to go all out on Party Vote this time. Candidates in nearby urban electorate are helping out when they can.
Thanks Nick that was informative and entertaining. Look forward to the next electorate break down of candidates. Gives some background colour to the election
I am SO disillusioned with the major parties, having alway been a Labour supporter. National wants to sell us out to the Chinese and Labour to BlackRock. I will give my vote to NZLoyal , don’t agree with some of their policies but they aren’t going to sell kiwis out to overseas entities. David Lange made a stand against the US nuclear ships and our country suffered trade embargo from the US. Yes we suffered but the little antipodean country stood up against the dictatorial might if a super power and we were respected around the world. We are a proud nation and I don’t want the bullying tactics of another country to destroy us
I cant believe that those Parties are actually real, let alone the Hamilton candidates described ... I'm sure they're characters in a Monty Python skit 😆