Electorate Watch: Port Waikato

The by election that nobody wants.

You might remember the Electorate Watch newsletters I wrote leading up to the election. I quite enjoyed writing those, finding out things about the lesser known candidates that weren’t covered in the media.

But I hadn’t thought I’d be writing one for quite some time. Sure there’s the possibility that this shotgun menage of a coalition might lose one of its members before the next term’s up. But in all likelihood I thought it’d be three years before I was writing about electorate contests again.

Having written about tight contests at the election I hadn’t considered Port Waikato (PW), which was a forgone conclusion. Let’s put it this way if the people of Tauranga would elect a fencepost in a blue jacket, or even Sam Uffindell, the good citizens of PW would elect a pile of manure with a blue rosette in it - by a landslide.

Of course we’re here because the ACT candidate for PW, Neil Christensen, sadly died during the campaign. This despite local incumbent, Andrew Bayly, declaring after the fact that he thought Neil looked “very lively”.

I’m going to say the next bit quickly, because I find it quite annoying. So even though everyone knew Andrew was going to win by a landslide, and despite ACT, the disadvantaged party, choosing not to even stand a candidate, here we are again with a by election in two weeks, advance voting starts Monday.

The candidate list is possibly the grimmest set of options ever assembled in the history of putting things together, and if you think sounds like hyperbole, take a look at this lot!

See what I mean? A couple of readers who live in the electorate certainly have, and have contacted me saying - “OMG who on earth are left wing people supposed to vote for?”

Before we get into it I usually put some personal connection in, but I really can’t recall spending much time in PW.

I did once eat the hottest curry of my life in that electorate. The Englishman who was the best man when Fi and I got married loved a curry. Having emigrated to New Zealand, we’d worked together in the UK before that, he took great delight if we went to a curry house and when he’d ask for something hot the waiter would ask if he meant “english hot”?

Anyway he had a mate who settled in Waiuku, with his British Indian wife who was an excellent cook. I can still recall the evening we stayed there, seeing the tears of laughter rolling down his cheeks, to go with the rivers of perspiration on my forehead, as he smirked “like a good mild curry do you Nick?” While I grimaced on my Vindaloo.

Port Waikato is a large electorate immediately to the south of Auckland. Think the Glenbrook Steel Mill belching into the otherwise rural air, Meremere and Hampton Downs for the petrol heads, Spring Hill for the convicts, the porky delights of Pōkeno, the cheesier ones of Mercer, and the bright lights of Pukekohe.

It’s a pretty unremarkable electorate in terms of demographics, being by and large what you’d expect. A bit older and whiter than urban electorates but a lot more diverse than many further south. The place is almost remarkable in it’s averageness, with pretty much every indicator sitting mid table.

The 2018 census indicated that 6,024 people drove a company car, truck or van to work in PW, more people than any other electorate in the country. Conversely almost nobody rides a bike to work - just 81 individuals in the entire electorate!

Although that’s more than got to work by public bus, which was only 72 people. And both of those are large numbers compared to the six people who claimed they caught a ferry to work. To be honest I’m not entirely convinced there even is a ferry.

The electorate has had a few boundary and name changes over the years - Hunua, Franklin, and now Port Waikato. In the Labour landslide of 2020 National’s Andrew Bayly won the seat by over 4,000 votes, prior to that in 2017 he won by a huge majority of almost 20,000. It isn’t difficult to work out who’s going to win it this time, so we might as well start with Mr Bayly.

BAYLY, Andrew - National Party

In the October election the National Party received over 21,000 party votes in PW, over 13,000 more votes than the next placed party. Andrew has got this one in the bag.

Incoming Prime Minister Christopher Luxon (C), with Nancy Lu (L) and MP Andrew Bayly (R) at a media standup in Port Waikato. Photo: RNZ / Lucy Xia.

Here he is campaigning yesterday. It’s funny I always thought he sloshed and slurred his words in parliament due to an awful lot of Gin for lunch. But seeing this photo I wonder if he just forgot to put his teeth in.

That’s a bit unkind, I’ve actually been told that for a tory he’s not a bad local MP. I hope for the locals that’s true because he is definitely going to win.

Even if he is is standing on a manifesto that is now null and void. The current coalition negotiations no doubt meaning some of the policies he’s running on have already been abandoned, as those discussions enter their 5th week since the election.

BRIGHT, Scotty - Democracy NZ

Democracy NZ (DNZ), or as you’ll know it Matt King’s new party for parliament precinct campout cookers. DNZ received a total of 232 party votes in the electorate on the 14th so I’m not predicting an upset. In fact the cooker parties all did dramatically worse than the people involved with them had predicted. Orders of magnitude worse, more on that in a bit.

You can hear about Scotty in his own words here:

COSTELLO, Casey - New Zealand First Party

I wrote about Casey in my newsletter on the new inductees to parliament. That the number three ranked MP on the NZF list has been a long term spokesperson for anti-Māori hate group Hobson’s Pledge, and is the former chair, and a board member, of the Taxpayers’ Union.

If any lefties were thinking NZF might be the least worst of a diabolical bunch you might want to keep her enthusiasm for the objectives of those organisations in mind.

DICKSON, Gordon John - Independent

Gordon was not a candidate in the original October 14th field, a by election chancer. An interloper if you will. Gordon was actually standing as an independent in the East Coast electorate a month ago, where he received 66 votes, and came last. Still onwards and upwards elsewhere.

Previously he ran in the Hamilton West by election (receiving 26 votes). Prior to that he was a candidate in the Tauranga one, earlier in 2012 (receiving 9 votes). Here’s his return from that one, where he makes it clear that it’s all Jacinda’s fault. Again.

Look out for Gordon, probably coming to a by-election near you soon.

NGARO, Alf Metuakore - NewZeal

Alf, or as you might know him Alfred, was a former National Party Minister. I’m not sure what the name change is about but to be fair if I’d said and done some of things Alfred has over the years I’d probably be distancing myself as well.

Be it “allegedly” punching an atheist teacher at his son's school for not bowing his head during a prayer. Telling people they would lose government funding if they criticised National. Or referring to the “holocaust”, note this was nothing to do with Nazis or Gaza, this was about abortion.

Alfred asked and answered the following question on the topic, posting “Has any woman actually ever been made to feel like a criminal? Absolutely not.” He then added, “Abortion is not an 'issue'. It is a travesty of justice and has become an unholy holocaust in our nation.”

I used to have the delight of regularly driving by Alfred’s grinning face on his electorate office in Te Atatu, before National gave him a low enough position that he didn’t continue to get in off the list. He’s now the leader of the NewZeal party, religious fundamentalists who don’t just want their beliefs, but want to tell you how to live your life too - goody.

Here he is giving my daughter Thea an award for winning the year five speech contest at our local primary school a few years back. She’s the one in the red and white jacket.

Photo: Matipo Primary.

OVENS, Jill Annette - Women’s Rights Party

The WRM party received a total of 29 votes in PW in October, but Jill was not standing as a candidate, so another interloper. Joking aside when I read about Jill’s background I found much to admire in her union work.

Women’s rights sound like something everyone should be behind, and some of the party’s policies such as addressing the wage gap make absolute sense. But most of the policies are those of an anti-transgender party. Their top “priorities” are listed as:

• Sex is binary

• Human beings cannot change sex

• Women are adult humans of the female sex

The newsletters I wrote about Posie Parker received a lot of very heated, and pretty unpleasant discussion, and I’m not looking to re-open that can of worms. Jill resigned from the Labour party to form the WRM on the night of Posie’s protest in Albert Park.

I find this whole issue incredibly sad. Of course I fully support rights for all people, but I also know women who feel similarly to Jill, people I care about greatly. It’s not as simple as right and wrong, as easy as that would be.

But, you know, human rights matter - so don’t vote for the WRM if you think that includes the Trans community as well.

RIPPON, Anna Joy - Animal Justice Party

If I was going to vote for any of these people it’d be these guys. I’m not a vegan myself but some of the people I love are and I’ve no moral objection to it.

Isn’t that a weird thing to say? Not having a moral objection to a lifestyle choice that is healthy, good for the plant, and good for animals? But for some weird reason there are a group of neanderthals in this country who feel their manhood is threatened by vegans and cyclists.

Don’t get me wrong, I completely understand the abhorrence of middle aged men wearing lycra once they get off the bikes and start wandering about cafes sweating heavily, with mysterious bulges protruding from their pants. But while they’re on the bike they’re fine with me. Provided they’re riding in single file, obviously.

Anyway if you’re a leftie in PW then this is your best bet, your only bet, to register some sort of protest vote. Plus they’ve got a really cool logo.

I do understand not everyone associated with this party is necessarily a vegan, but I’m sure that most of them have at least given it a go. At least until they tasted the cheese anyway. Rest assured these good people are also opposed to things like Rodeos, the Melbourne Cup, and Greyhound Racing.

SUDHAMALLA, Vijay - Vision New Zealand

In case you’ve forgotten, Vision is part of the overall umbrella of hate, ignorance, and bigotry that is Brian Tamaki’s Freedoms NZ (FNZ). When you consider that FNZ received fewer than ten thousand party votes, across the entire country, at the general election, I don’t imagine Vijay will be threatening the National Party record here.

Casey, Anna, Alf, possibly Scotty, Jill, Vijay, Kim, and some other bloke. Absent Gordon and Andrew.

TURNER, Kim - New Zealand Loyal

New Zealand Loyal (NZL) is the third cooker party in this by election, after Vision NZ and Democracy NZ. This being the Liz Gunn one, that leader wildly predicting they’d receive over two million votes at the election! In fact they got fewer than 35 thousand in total, nationwide. Talk about a disappointing turnout!

This was Kim’s view on current parliamentarians, that she posted two days ago. “They tell us what we should be doing each and every day screwing our livelihoods and being the hypocrites they are. Lets get rid of these imbeciles and bring back honesty, integrity and respect for our fellow men and woman. Yes Men and Woman!!!”

Personally I always find, when I’m thinking of bringing back respect for our fellows, that calling people imbeciles is the way to go.

If you ever want to prepare a list of conspiracy theories you can find most of them on Kim’s Facebook page, as advocated by her.

Normally at the end of these newsletters I talk about who might win, and the factors in play. But Andrew’s going to win and the whole thing is utterly pointless. I appreciate it’s a fine line between applying common sense and totalitarian rule, but I do think on this occasion there wasn’t really any need to cast votes.

While Andrew Bayly may come across in parliament as not having done much in the way of thinking, before talking. In this electorate he is far and away not the worst candidate. He should win by an absolute landslide.

Port Waikato contains the highly regarded Revolver Studios, who have recorded a veritable who’s who of Kiwi musicians. Including this track by one of our greatest songwriters, Dave Dobbyn, with Tim Finn on drums and Neil Finn, who suggested rocking the track up a bit, producing.