Game on!

On Thursday the latest political poll was released showing National and ACT together on 47%, in practically a dead heat with Labour and the Greens who had 46%, the Maori party holding the balance of power.

Much of the media did not treat the result as being neck-and-neck; they were popping the champagne corks. After four years of National looking unelectable with their infighting, lack of leadership, and absence of policies they were back in the game. All it had taken was to put a wealthy middle-aged white man in a suit in front of the camera intoning “now is the time for tax cuts”.

Many of us looked on stunned, perhaps a bit down heartened. After all Jacinda has done for us through terrible events, a worldwide pandemic, providing world class leadership, we’re going to repay her like this? Surely we’re better than that – aren’t we?

Is that who we are as a people, are we that motivated by a few dollars, and have such short memories of what she has done, that we’re going to make THAT guy our next leader? Next time there is a major event that needs careful handling we want THAT guy in charge?

Sure it was only a single poll following a week of fairly calamitous external factors beyond the government’s control, no need to panic. But it is time for Labour to get into electioneering mode and what better place than drawing a line under some Covid restrictions which have done their day.

When there was an elimination strategy there was merit in waiting until the latest results were known before confirming a decision, that isn’t the case now. Too many times we all know what the government is about to announce because they could have done it the previous week.

For example removing the need for kiwis to isolate was such a no-brainer to all, there was no logical reason to have it given the number of community cases, that it became insulting to members of the public when the government dragged it out rather than just doing it.

Protections at the border served us well but it would really help now to let people know when borders for international tourism will reopen. With the very clear proviso that a new more deadly variant could see a return to the use of MIQ.

Maybe front foot a decision for a change? Make an announcement that the opposition hasn’t been whining about for weeks as they can see it is about to happen anyway and would like to take the credit.

How about drop the traffic light signal to at least orange, possibly even green? Would telling people they can go to a rugby game, or a music festival, really change much in terms of Covid at this point? Keeping restrictions where people can’t do these things, even after contact tracing has been abandoned and we have this level of community spread, doesn’t seem to serve any benefit and it really pisses voters off.

This election is going to be fought in the middle, as most elections are. The middle voters who gave you the election in 2020 in gratitude for saving the life of granny are exiting stage right as the leader of the opposition says come on over, have a little tax cut - first hit is free.

Hip pocket economics are set to be the topic for the election next year. National have proposed tax cuts that would see those on the lowest incomes get a couple of dollars a week but people on high incomes get more than $150 a week.

The old theory of “trickle down” economics that would have us believe if we give the well off more money they will spend it providing a boost to the economy.

The problem with this is they don’t which is why it has failed every other time it was used. Give someone on a low income a bit more money and they’ll spend it on goods and services, give it to someone on a high income and they’ll use it to buy assets or pay down debt. It is essentially a wealth transfer to the wealthy - a “trickle up”.

If Labour, rather than changing all tax brackets and getting rid of the highest one for income over $180,000 as National propose, were to just raise the lowest threshold, the tax free one, by 10k that would see all earners with an extra $20 per week. This would cost roughly the same amount as National’s tax bracket adjustments.

Of course it is crazy to be proposing tax cuts at a time when the government needs to invest money in health, infrastructure, helping businesses recover from Covid, etc. But National know people won’t do the sensible thing in the ballot box, they’ll vote for that tax cut without consideration of the cuts in social services required to pay for it, or the fact that most of it goes to people earning far more than them.

No question prices have risen, but the cost of living that is causing the most difficulty isn’t the price of petrol, it isn’t the much reported price of an out of season head of cauliflower - it is housing, everything else is irrelevant by comparison

Finally the housing market seems to have reached a plateau and in the absence of a major political party prepared to intervene to actually lower prices a flattening of, or even a small decline in, real estate prices over a long period is the best to be hoped for.

So what does National want to do? Lower the bright line test and return interest deductibility on rentals, both of which will fuel property speculation. Which is great if you own seven houses like Christopher Luxon, but if you need to not purchase literally thousands of servings of smashed avo and flat whites per year to get anywhere near the bottom rung of the property ladder - not so much.

What about strategies for dealing with the other parties and those who would vote for them?

For starters discourage people voting for TOP, they have no money, no one even knows who their leader is, and they have no chance of getting in. It would be a disaster for the left if ACT/National narrowly win and 2% of voters waste their vote on TOP.

Can you do a deal with the Maori Party? If so perhaps come to an accommodation in Waiariki to remove the threshold concern that could also see 2% of largely left wing votes wasted. If not make it clear to voters that a vote for the Maori party could actually be a vote for ACT and National - is that what they want?

Encourage supporters who live in Auckland Central to give their electorate vote to Chloe. They can party vote Labour all day long, and Helen White gets in on the list. Make sure Auckland Central becomes a safe Greens seat removing the scare tactic the media will use yet again if even a single poll shows the Greens close to the 5% threshold.

New Zealand First – yeah nobody wants them back deciding the next government. Regardless of who wins the election the dog whistle populism of Winston Peters, now resorting to trying to get the votes of the lunatic fringe, means having NZF First return to parliament would be a bad thing for Aotearoa.

Keep reminding prospective National voters that they are in essence voting for an ACT/National coalition, they might want National but do they really want the policies that ACT would bring with them?

There should be relentless attacks on the austerity that National’s tax less and borrow less approach would mean in terms of cuts to public services and welfare. Let alone what it would mean if ACT were helping set the direction of the next government.

Time to clean house and get rid of initiatives that look bad, for example public transport to the airport. The fact that it still feels like nothing has been done, it is hugely expensive, and it seems like connecting to the existing heavy rail network would’ve been the better option anyway, is a debacle 18 months from an election. Take the flack now and do something about it.

Do you really want to lose an election because of Three Waters? It might be the right policy, a smart thing to do, but it was one to achieve within a term not have lingering, with no benefit realized, at the time of an election. This one is a vote loser because of the level of disinformation that will be fed to voters about it.

Don’t under estimate Luxon he is slick, he will play the tunes people want to hear, and just ignore anything complex. Based on current evidence he will be given a free ride by the media to do so.

When it comes to the election debates next year Ardern and Robertson will no doubt walk all over Luxon and Bridges. They will have sensible solutions to complex problems that they can articulate well and which will benefit the majority of New Zealanders – but is that what kiwis want?

The problem is how many will take notice of that rather than just looking at the infomercial, or the meme, with the great smiley leader (2.0) grinning to camera and saying “LOL lets have some tax cuts” as they think – oh look John Key is back.

So imagine if you will election night 18 months from now.

We cross to the Sky City auditorium where Nicola Willis is announcing to the crowd “ladies and gentlemen we have a Prime Minister – Christopher Luxon”. A million blue balloons, each containing the hopes and dreams of an underprivileged child, are released and gleefully popped by the party faithful.

Meanwhile across town Jacinda is addressing a rather more somber crowd telling them we are proud of what we achieved together. A tear in her eye as she announces her resignation from politics, the crowd shaking their heads in utter disbelief.

Fuck that!