On Thursday the latest political poll was released showing National and ACT together on 47%, in practically a dead heat with Labour and the Greens who had 46%, the Maori party holding the balance of power. Much of the media did not treat the result as being neck-and-neck; they were popping the champagne corks. After four years of National looking unelectable with their infighting, lack of leadership, and absence of policies they were back in the game. All it had taken was to put a wealthy middle-aged white man in a suit in front of the camera intoning “now is the time for tax cuts”.
It’s easy for the media to peddle this rubbish when a growing sector of our population is profoundly ignorant about how NZ democracy works. During the gun law debate we had people braying about their Second Amendment rights. Chantelle Baker was wittering about her father’s “right to a phone call.” A surprising number of people think we vote for a PM, encouraged in that belief by the daft “preferred PM polls.” The protesters were told by their masters that they were “ embargoed” from emailing or seeing their MP’s. If we are ever going to slow the tide of political misinformation we need to start with better civics education for our up and coming voters, before it’s too late.
Sorry to say it Pat, but most of the youngest generation are info-gullible due to a childhood spent watching cultural excrescences about how to cook bread and join circuses, on TV....so now they mentally live mostly in the world of their cell-phones, which are a direct link to all that is worst about American Culture.
Prescient words Nick - the outcome of this toxic triumvirate was always there in open sight - it didn't take much imagination :/ "Don’t under estimate Luxon he is slick" - he's slick indeed, like a damaging oil spill and becoming slicker every week at dodging questions, even at putting in time in Parliament!
Interesting to look back Nick. I beg to disagree with your decision to encourage the (then) government to capitulate to business regarding Covid. They did, slowly, and now we have no community action against Covid at all - with 51 deaths last week. Masks and clean air in public spaces could have been a lifesaver…
The difference between what is best, and what the public will accept. The restrictions I talked about were Kiwis returning to NZ and having to quarantine despite negative tests, even though there was widespread community infection.
I completely agree with your comments and it's at odds with yesterday's newsletter. Yet it was clear at the time that public sentiment was moving rapidly and Labour failed to keep up with that. They seemed slow to respond and they lost a fair chunk of the public.
Spot on, Nick...I remember muttering to myself, worrying about that, saying careful you guys, it is a hell of a lot easier to stop any process or development than it is to get it up and running again...
Amazing how predicted so well those things that have come to pass Nick. Sadly the outcomes are even worse than you predicted as this pathetic excuse for a Govt continues its relentless attacks on those least able to respond.
A study done after the last election showed that people are no longer voting along traditional lines. Many are practicing "aspirational voting" - voting for the party offering what they would like to be rather than the one that offered the most current benefits. So yes - they ARE hoping to be Luxon/Key/Trump. Sigh.
If that is so, then we are all doomed, to be inevitably forced to trying to rediscover the will to live, whilst trapped in a culture that knows the price of everything and the meaning of absolutely nothing....
On point as usual Nick! I have to say - it all defies belief really. I'm at the point of not wanting to see what they're going to do next, to avoid suffering a depressive mood. So many (except the wealthy of course) are doing it hard out there. Loss of jobs, seeking ulterior living arrangements as a means of being able to survive etc. A lot has been taken off them, costs are escalating all around, (including rates, local and regional) businesses/retailers are feeling a negative impact and even farmers are saying they are only marginally better off. The trio have sabotaged any good done by our past government and are slowly annihilating our beautiful country. We need a strong rebellious Labour (Labour/Green) uprising.!
If I was Luxon I would be a bit itchy between the shoulder blades about now. The knives will be starting to circle. We all know that those in the "born to rule" side of politics all want to be the ruler. It is early though. Another couple of similar polls will seal his fate. Could this be a one term National led government? Remember NZ history. No replacement PM has ever won a subsequent election in New Zealand since 1943 when Peter Fraser got re-elected after Savage died in 1940. Labour needs to focus hard, ask those tricky questions all the time. Don't let up.
Of course we're those people. We've always been those people. That's why they know they can trot out those lines: 1) the last government wasted your money on dole bludgers; 2) we will give you a tax cut.
They wouldn't use it if it wasn't a 100% successful strategy.
Yes it was good but I missed it being dated and kept asking myself ‘this draws a picture of prior to the last election.’ Perhaps it is me and my recent health problem…. Whilst I am talking, I admire your writings and opinions. Mostly assimilate with them. All the best and wishing you much strength.
Hi Penny, no it was more that I didn't have anything to send out this morning and I thought people might be interested to look back. I take no credit for seeing what was going to happen, sadly it wasn't hard to see.
I assumed, rather, that Nick's latest work is actually a case of revealing how easy it was to predict that this political fiasco we are in could happen, and chiding Labour for not being politically astute enough to also foresee it. In my view it was a case of the Labour party being taken over by 'the woke crowd', with consequently not enough old-timers with political savvy still having their steadying influence...and then when Chippy stepped in and proceeded to ride towards the slightly right of middle, I knew we were going to be forced to suffer a NAct government.
What is at risk summarised in one sentence
"A million blue balloons, each containing the hopes and dreams of an underprivileged child, are released and gleefully popped by the party faithful"
Its an absolutely perfect line isn't it!!!
It’s easy for the media to peddle this rubbish when a growing sector of our population is profoundly ignorant about how NZ democracy works. During the gun law debate we had people braying about their Second Amendment rights. Chantelle Baker was wittering about her father’s “right to a phone call.” A surprising number of people think we vote for a PM, encouraged in that belief by the daft “preferred PM polls.” The protesters were told by their masters that they were “ embargoed” from emailing or seeing their MP’s. If we are ever going to slow the tide of political misinformation we need to start with better civics education for our up and coming voters, before it’s too late.
Sorry to say it Pat, but most of the youngest generation are info-gullible due to a childhood spent watching cultural excrescences about how to cook bread and join circuses, on TV....so now they mentally live mostly in the world of their cell-phones, which are a direct link to all that is worst about American Culture.
Prescient words Nick - the outcome of this toxic triumvirate was always there in open sight - it didn't take much imagination :/ "Don’t under estimate Luxon he is slick" - he's slick indeed, like a damaging oil spill and becoming slicker every week at dodging questions, even at putting in time in Parliament!
Interesting to look back Nick. I beg to disagree with your decision to encourage the (then) government to capitulate to business regarding Covid. They did, slowly, and now we have no community action against Covid at all - with 51 deaths last week. Masks and clean air in public spaces could have been a lifesaver…
The difference between what is best, and what the public will accept. The restrictions I talked about were Kiwis returning to NZ and having to quarantine despite negative tests, even though there was widespread community infection.
I completely agree with your comments and it's at odds with yesterday's newsletter. Yet it was clear at the time that public sentiment was moving rapidly and Labour failed to keep up with that. They seemed slow to respond and they lost a fair chunk of the public.
Spot on, Nick...I remember muttering to myself, worrying about that, saying careful you guys, it is a hell of a lot easier to stop any process or development than it is to get it up and running again...
Everything that whizzes around in my head… written so well .. Thank you 🙏
Amazing how predicted so well those things that have come to pass Nick. Sadly the outcomes are even worse than you predicted as this pathetic excuse for a Govt continues its relentless attacks on those least able to respond.
Why is it that left parties are so bad at winning votes when it comes to $. Is it that everyone hopes they can become Key Luxon Trump?
A study done after the last election showed that people are no longer voting along traditional lines. Many are practicing "aspirational voting" - voting for the party offering what they would like to be rather than the one that offered the most current benefits. So yes - they ARE hoping to be Luxon/Key/Trump. Sigh.
If that is so, then we are all doomed, to be inevitably forced to trying to rediscover the will to live, whilst trapped in a culture that knows the price of everything and the meaning of absolutely nothing....
Oh yes. Its the US myth that is we're all just "temporarily embarassed millionaires". Such utter tosh.
On point as usual Nick! I have to say - it all defies belief really. I'm at the point of not wanting to see what they're going to do next, to avoid suffering a depressive mood. So many (except the wealthy of course) are doing it hard out there. Loss of jobs, seeking ulterior living arrangements as a means of being able to survive etc. A lot has been taken off them, costs are escalating all around, (including rates, local and regional) businesses/retailers are feeling a negative impact and even farmers are saying they are only marginally better off. The trio have sabotaged any good done by our past government and are slowly annihilating our beautiful country. We need a strong rebellious Labour (Labour/Green) uprising.!
Well written, and yes to your last comment!
If I was Luxon I would be a bit itchy between the shoulder blades about now. The knives will be starting to circle. We all know that those in the "born to rule" side of politics all want to be the ruler. It is early though. Another couple of similar polls will seal his fate. Could this be a one term National led government? Remember NZ history. No replacement PM has ever won a subsequent election in New Zealand since 1943 when Peter Fraser got re-elected after Savage died in 1940. Labour needs to focus hard, ask those tricky questions all the time. Don't let up.
Of course we're those people. We've always been those people. That's why they know they can trot out those lines: 1) the last government wasted your money on dole bludgers; 2) we will give you a tax cut.
They wouldn't use it if it wasn't a 100% successful strategy.
It's very sobering to read. I tried to say how dangerous Act would be or worse Peter's. Populism is hard to counteract.
Yes it was good but I missed it being dated and kept asking myself ‘this draws a picture of prior to the last election.’ Perhaps it is me and my recent health problem…. Whilst I am talking, I admire your writings and opinions. Mostly assimilate with them. All the best and wishing you much strength.
Thanks Gloria, and apologies that wasn't clear.
Prophetic!
Weird newsletter Nick it’s not clear that you’ve recycled one from two years ago. Is it a case of crowing I told you so?
Hi Penny, no it was more that I didn't have anything to send out this morning and I thought people might be interested to look back. I take no credit for seeing what was going to happen, sadly it wasn't hard to see.
I assumed, rather, that Nick's latest work is actually a case of revealing how easy it was to predict that this political fiasco we are in could happen, and chiding Labour for not being politically astute enough to also foresee it. In my view it was a case of the Labour party being taken over by 'the woke crowd', with consequently not enough old-timers with political savvy still having their steadying influence...and then when Chippy stepped in and proceeded to ride towards the slightly right of middle, I knew we were going to be forced to suffer a NAct government.
12/3/22 - why send this dated piece now?
I didn't have anything to send out this morning and I thought people might be interested to look back at two years ago.