Is It Getting Better?
TVNZ Poll shows only 30% think it is.
UPDATE: This newsletter was previously paywalled but is now public and available to all. Thank you kindly to the paying subscribers of Nick’s Kōrero. 🙂
Is it getting better?
Or do you feel the same?
Will it make it easier on you now?
You got someone to blame
Songwriters: Paul David Hewson / Adam Clayton / Larry Mullen / Dave Evans
It's polling day from TVNZ. We don’t get many polls these days. Of course, they don’t mean a lot compared to election day, but they provide insight into the electorate's mood based on recent events—something a bit more scientific than the views of those delivering the news.
This morning, Maiki Sherman announced on Breakfast that today marks one year since the election in which Kiwis voted for change.
Well, they certainly got change. Although I don’t recall the political advertising before the vote saying the change would be laying off public servants, damaging social services, and all the other delights we’ve discovered subsequent to their election.
Breakfast had a wee glimpse before the poll proper, indicating the nation's mood...
Considering that, as Maiki said, New Zealanders voted for change, it’s hardly a ringing endorsement that only three out of ten Kiwis feel better off a year later.
Even then, I’m sure some of those saying the country was in better shape were not necessarily finding it any easier. Perhaps some were reluctant to say they got it wrong when they voted. I suspect fewer than 30% of Kiwis genuinely feel they’ve gotten ahead in the last year.
The new government has made a lot of noise about cleaning up after the last one. But even those who believe their claims about the now opposition will, at some point, expect them to stop pointing fingers and actually take responsibility. Admit they are now in charge and accountable, and this is on them.
Aside from anything else, the claims that the last government spent too much money are pretty hollow if you then turn around and give away billions in tax cuts. Which is it? Are we broke or doing okay? If it’s the former, then why the hell did we blow billions on tax cuts?
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We have a government that has spent more than the last lot, is increasing our debt, is steering our public services into a ditch, and then says Labour did it. People aren’t idiots… not forever. Fool me once and all that.
At some point, they will say enough. That all the claims of necessary cuts and bloated public services sound pretty hollow juxtaposed against those tax cuts.
The freeze on health spending and the cuts across other services will leave us with huge problems down the line, as programmes intended to address things at the top of the cliff are replaced by an ambulance at the bottom. Needless to say, they aren’t funding the ambulances either. So you might have to wait at the bottom for some time, in more ways than one.
Luxon said there were green shoots, which is their go-to phrase to imagine things are better. He said the last government put the country into a ditch. Cool story, bro. How many more years are you going to spin that one?
Chippy said that the country had gone backwards over the last year under the “Coalition of Chaos”. He said unemployment was up, health services were further into crisis, there were worsening race relations, and “New Zealanders aren’t getting what they voted for”.
John Key and Michael Wood appeared on the Breakfast Show to comment. Key said the numbers were to be expected, and he was not surprised people were feeling worse.
Wood pointed out the same issues as Chippy, including that we have an entire Eden Park full of additional unemployed people now. He also said that the Key government was up 10% at the end of its first year, and the Ardern government was up 8% after a year. Meanwhile, with Luxon, people are already questioning things.
Key was there to say, “Nothing to see here,” and “No one really cares.” He said the government was “doing absolutely the right thing”. That they were on the right track, and Luxon has “proved he is an action man and gets things done” - whatever the fuck that means.
When asked to rate the leaders, Key said he couldn’t give Luxon a ten because it would go to his head, so he gave him a nine. He rated Winston a seven or eight for longevity and Seymour an eight, Key saying he was a “good guy.”
Wood said the two minor parties were really pushing divisive subjects and gave them both a four. Michael said Luxon wouldn’t have planned to spend so much time on firearms, tobacco, and Māori crown issues and gave him a four or a five.
Key blamed MMP for Luxon’s position, not his weak negotiating with seemingly no bottom lines or principles in play. Then took a moment to mansplain to Maiki, how coalitions work. What a guy.
It made me wonder - why the fuck do they get him on just to spout meaningless bullshit and obfuscate reality?
Who benefits from rolling Key out for these things? He never says anything interesting or impartial; he just parrots the line that National is doing what’s needed. It doesn’t serve National well either, highlighting that while Luxon is Key-like in his lack of interest in the non-wealthy, he lacks the former PM’s charm, which is grim.
The Results
The actual poll results this evening weren’t particularly interesting. There was some minor to-ing and fro-ing and a bit of a drop in preferred PM for both major party leaders.
If we compare the results to a year ago, National (election night 38.06%) is down one, Labour (26.91%) is up two, the Greens (11.6%) and ACT (8.64%) are essentially the same, and NZ First (6.08%) is down one to sit right on the 5% threshold.
The coalition would still comfortably form a government on these numbers, but Luxon’s deputies look increasingly problematic. At his Party Conference, Winston came across as unhinged and Trump-like, appealing to the basest ignorance of those disaffected and deluded over Covid precautions.
Seymour will continue trying to eat National’s vote by appealing to those threatened by any semblance of equality for Māori or who think public services need to be cut further, as given voice by their ghastly media arm, the Taxpayers’ Union.
Winston will know policies like keeping tobacco in the lungs of voters and some people from using certain bathrooms will only hold his mob for so long.
The Covid enquiry will not satisfy - surely sanity will prevail, and the outcome will be - “mostly excellent with a few things that could’ve been done differently with hindsight”, rather than the burning at the stake his supporters crave.
Peters will have to use his power—that means returning the handbrake. A taihoa on the carnage being carried out as the degree of separation for most people in this country from someone whom this government has hurt approaches one.
Seymour and Peters have played nicely to date, but you just know their feud is festering, and they can’t stand each other. When it all blows up, do you think Luxon will manage things well? It sure doesn’t look like it so far; they’ve walked all over him.
Is this poll the beginning of the end? It's hard to say, but you could certainly say it’s the end of the beginning.
The honeymoon period for this government, such as it has been, is well and truly over. Claims it’s all Labour’s fault will ring less and less true with people who can see things worsening due to the government’s actions.
The opposition's challenge will be convincing people that this government doesn’t have their interests at heart and that there is a better alternative with properly funded public services, people paying their share, and an economy at least as strong as under National—but run for everybody.
As it stands, things are going in the wrong direction for many.
Before anyone mentions that I don't send a newsletter on a Monday, I could have held this back and sent it in the morning, but it made more sense to send it while the news was fresh. So tomorrow is the new Monday 😉 At least this week.
If this gets to 100 'likes' I'll open it up. 🙂
I'm still pissed, and shocked, that ANYONE is still supporting this abomination 😳