Kingmakers II.

"A Lot Of Dudes On The Dancefloor."

Last night saw the second third party debate, between ACT's David Seymour, Te Pāti Māori's Rawiri Waititi, the Green Party's James Shaw, and NZ First's Winston Peters.

In my opinion the first third party debate, hosted by Rebecca Wright on Newshub, has been the pick of the debates to date. Certainly in terms of drama, if not policy detail. It saw Winston and David at opposite ends of the stage, befitting their status as highly reluctant bedfellows, and Marama and Debbie in the middle, high-fiving.

This time it would be the male co-leaders, James and Rawiri, with the debate hosted by Jack Tame on TVNZ. I was hoping it’d be a lot better than the first one on that channel, hosted by Jessica Mutch McKay.

At least the audience looked a little more alive than that one, although ugh - there was the Newstalk ZB village idiot in the front row. Still at least Jason didn’t get to ask any of his notoriously stupid questions here. Speaking of a bit more life - this time they placed Winston and David in the centre, right beside each other.

Letsssssss go!

The beaming host began by telling us more than two hundred thousand kiwis had already cast their votes. Jack then took a moment to acknowledge the passing of Rawiri’s mum. Then lightened the mood saying there were “a lot of dudes on the dancefloor”.

The candidates were asked to describe the values of their party. Winston said NZF’s values were like their name, they believed in putting NZers first and were not globalists. Shout out to all the conspiracy homies!

David said we can’t just choose between more of the same, or instability. Ouch, take that Winston! Inevitably he criticised initiatives to address inequalities on race. David is loudly and proudly in the camp that think Māori are doing just fine, and if there’s anyone we need to help it’s clearly the billionaires.

Rawiri was next looking very relaxed with a black t-shirt under his jacket, stylish glasses, and the ever present cowboy hat. Sorry Winston, he wore it better than you - but don’t worry, looking at the last 40 years you’re definitely the bigger cowboy!

Waititi said “what does an Aotearoa home look like to us, it looks like how we’d treat you on out marae. We would feed you, we will house you, we will love you, we will care for you. Those are the fundamental values of Te Pāti Māori.”

Finally James began by expressing his condolences to Rawiri before explaining the Greens stand for everyone having a warm, dry home, as well as dealing with issues like climate change and how we treat the environment.

Back to Jack who said between them the four parties were on track to attract a greater third party vote than has happened in the last twenty years. He asked them why?

Seymour had borrowed his mate Christopher’s chicken suit and gave it his best “the sky is falling”. Blah blah government waste blah de blah erosion of democracy blah blah blah back to a country where it’s safe to go to a dairy… It made me think, damn - how bad are things in Epsom that people can’t even go to the dairy!

Jack moved to coalition discussions and to Winston, the man who threatened his job in the weekend for daring to ask questions. He listed three times that a coalition with Winston has ended in bitter acrimony. Then asked if it’d be a nice change starting off with such ill feeling right from the beginning?

I’m kidding. He didn’t ask that last bit, but I bet many viewers were thinking it. He asked why NZers should trust him to be a stable coalition partner. Winnie said “people were looking for a better government, but they didn’t want a hard lurch to the right and all the punishment that is being offered in some of these policies”. Back at you Seymour - Thwack!

Tame returned to Seymour and asked him directly if he trusted Winston Peters. The first word out of his mouth was not “yes”.

David said, “well the problem is I don’t know where he stands on any issue”, before listing gun owners, farmers, and those opposed to co-governance, as having been let down by Winston, who was unimpressed and start talking over David to stop him. Tame repeated the question and Seymour confirmed “No, because I can’t tell where he stands”.

I tended to agree. Winston’s been playing both sides ever since we moved to MMP. You can’t do that, then expect people to have confidence in what they’ll get from you.

The two of them, Seymour and Peters, argued back and forth before Jack asked Winston the same question, and he said “it’s not my job to trust him.”

This is a joke. Important negotiations require a degree of good faith to reach the best outcomes. These two can’t stand the sight of each other, and we’re supposed to believe that they’re going to agree the policy priorities of a future coalition?

Shaw was asked, having been through government with Winston Peters between 2017 and 2020, whether he’d have any advice for those entering such an arrangement. James grinned like the cat that had swallowed the canary. He motioned at Seymour and Peters saying “if you’re voting for the National Party, this is what you’re voting for”. Which received the first applause of the night.

To be fair to James he was quite magnanimous, because that’s the sort of person he is. He said he and Winston had a very cordial relationship during that time, and while they certainly didn’t agree on everything they made it work for the good of the country.

Jack told him that with the latest poll National and the Greens could govern together. Arrrghhh, the bane of my existence this week has been people asking if the Greens would go with National and having to explain that no, the party’s member have to approve any coalition and that’s never going to happen with a deal involving National.

Besides which the policies of the two are so far apart it makes no sense. National and Labour are actually closer in terms of policies, competing for the same centre voters, but people wouldn’t suggest they’d form a coalition.

Anyway, enough venting. Let’s see what James had to say in response. “It’s important for people to know that if you’re voting for the Green party you’re voting for more Green Ministers sitting around the cabinet table with Labour.” Hallelujah brother, you can’t be clearer than that.

Jack moved to Rawiri saying TPM have made it clear that working with either major party was not their priority, so what’s the point in being in parliament? Rawiri said “they’d been in opposition since 1840, and look what happened to the coalition back then” - which got the first laugh of the night.

Going into the ad break each party leader was asked what their top priority would be in the days after the election. James said a fairer tax system to pay for the things we need. Seymour said cutting government waste, which is a nice euphemism for sacking public servants. Winston said it was to form a stable government and return our democracy to what it once was - whatever the hell that means? Rawiri said it was about getting the best gains for their people, whether in government or in opposition.

A quick fire on whether it was ok to lie. Rawiri said never. Winston said if you’ve got any brains you’ll tell the truth or you’ll be found out through your body language - which didn’t seem like it was the best reason for choosing to tell the truth. David said - no, it’s not, and James said integrity is critical.

The next segment was on Climate Change. I’m not going to say much about that having already written about the climate change policies of the parties this week.

There was a video of interviews with mainly younger people talking about how important climate change is. It finished with one lady saying “it’s impossible under an MMP government to get true change”.

Winston said that climate change has been with us for millions of years. A second shout out to his tin foil whanau, although to be fair if anyone was going to remember, it would be Winston.

James pointed out that ACT’s policy of setting the price for the ETS was the sort of interventionist approach that Muldoon had taken, he was surprised that David didn’t have more confidence in the market. Which left Seymour gulping like a fish out of water and got a laugh from the audience. Then David started to talk over him, to which James said “Do you remember when I asked you for your opinion? No, neither do I”, which got more applause.

Seymour tried to make a joke at James’ expense by saying he called him James Offshore due to his attendance at international meetings. Tumbleweeds could be heard rolling by. James retorted that “David, you can say something stupid once in a while, but you’re really abusing the privilege mate”. There was loud laughter.

Next up was the treaty of Waitangi and co-governance. Rawiri listed a number of ways in which the commitments in the treaty have not been met by the Crown. Winston was asked if he agreed but said he agreed with Sir Peter Buck who wrote this book a hundred years ago, holding up what looked like a first edition that had been well read.

Winston accused Te Pāti Māori of being racist and separatist, and not representing common Māori. Which seemed a bit rich from someone willing to say the first people of this land aren’t indigenous in order to gain votes from people opposed to Māori aspirations. I couldn’t help thinking - what has Winston ever done for Māori?

David claimed he wanted every child born in New Zealand to have the same choices and chances in life, but that couldn’t be achieved by treating people differently, which had never worked anywhere in history. Quite a big call if you think of affirmative action in the US, not to mention the progress of Women’s rights.

David of course had the same answer he always has - Charter schools. Yep, the answer to Māori achieving better outcomes is packing them off to a for-profit school, not subject to the same standards as the rest of the education system. Look, I’m sure those places are good at enforcing discipline, but raising a people to overcome generations of unequal treatment? Not so much.

James said “there has never been one rule for all, ever since colonisation. Ultimately the ability of government to work with Māori organisations to provide public services to Māori, to those communities, to ensure they are able to get those chances in life is a good thing. I do not think it is scary, I do not think it is divisive, it’s just doing what works.”

There were more interviews with the public showing really well considered opinions and views - more of this TVNZ!

I’ve never understood why people are so worried about Māori sharing a bit of the power. What do these people imagine they’re going to do? Watching this it made me realise - they’re worried that if Māori do get some power they’ll act the way they themselves act, and that’s a bit of a depressing thought.

Rawiri listed positive initiatives like Kōhanga Reo and Kura Kaupapa, saying these things haven’t hurt anybody and spelling it out that co-governance initiatives won’t hurt anybody either.

There was discussion about ACT’s policy of having a referendum on the treaty. Not even Christopher Luxon, to his credit, will have anything to do with that. It’s utterly deplorable and would lead to division in this country like we have never seen. I felt a bit sick just thinking about the campaign that would accompany such a move.

Jack told Winston that 17 Māori and community leaders had submitted a letter to politicians calling out race baiting in this election. They specifically noted the language used by NZF candidate Rob Ballantyne who talked of the “virus of co-governance”, a “disease”, and said “elite Māori should be buried”. Winston claimed he’d meant something else, and said he backed his candidate 100%.

Law and Order, the next topic, has been done to death. Earlier in the campaign it felt like the right were talking about nothing else. Except perhaps potholes.

David still wants us to prepare to lock up a whole lot more people, perhap preempting the effects of his policies on many.

Rawiri was asked what causes crime and answered - poverty. This stuff isn’t hard, and James agreed with him. Winston said it was criminal intent, and he seemed to be serious despite Jack’s amusement at the answer. Apparently back in Winnie’s day people knew how to behave. Coincidentally, back in the day, we didn’t have the enormous disparities in wealth that we have today, either.

James began to speak before immediately being spoken over by Seymour. Shaw said “you know I’m starting to realise that the people that can tolerate you are the real heroes here, you know that?” Everyone was laughing at this point, well nearly everyone.

In another moment reminiscent of the earlier third party debate Winston bizarrely starting talking about Seymour needing to wear long trousers. Before telling us about his glory days with the wine box inquiry - which was thirty years ago!

Next up was the age of superannuation eligibility, which only David wanted to raise. James did a good job explaining how an increase in the age of eligibility would most impact the poorer members of our community, who die younger, do more physical work, and are less likely to have significant retirement savings.

The debate moved to the cost of living and ACT’s intention to layoff 15,000 people to reduce government waste. Or to put it another way, approximately 50,000 kiwi homes would lose an income for some length of time. No doubt some of those people would struggle to find jobs on similar incomes, or even a job again at all.

Jack asked for one policy the leaders wanted to make sure they mentioned before the finish. Rawiri’s was maintaining the Māori seats. Winston’s was an enquiry into Covid spending.

Good grief, what a waste of money. Our government made the best decisions they could at the time and were regarded, by comparison with most other nations, to have done a good job. What a complete waste of money holding an enquiry into it would be.

In another shout out to his tinfoil constituency Winston said we couldn’t just trust that the podium of truth got it right. Ignoring the fact that he was one of the people on that podium during the worst of Covid.

Seymour rabbited on once again about government waste, and there needing to be consequences for criminals and rights for victims. Or to summarise - build more prisons, which was somewhat at odds with reducing wasteful government spending. James said free public dental care, funded by a fairer tax system.

So was the debate any good? Well it was at least half an hour too long, the Newshub one benefited from sticking to an hour. You might say - that’s a bit rich Nick, have you seen how long this newsletter is? You might have a point. Congratulations on getting this far, we’re nearly done.

Jack Tame was much better than Jessica had been, the questions were more open ended and he spoke a whole lot less than she did. But he did a poor job at moderating, Seymour constantly spoke over the top of the others and there were numerous times that David repeated the same points about government waste and co-governance.

Winston on the other hand didn’t really seem to have anything new to say. It was just the same old routine, and it’s not as sharp as it once was.

If I was to pick someone who improved what people thought of them, I’d go with Rawiri. He made some excellent points, which were well received by the crowd. Some Kiwis won’t like what he said, and his policies won’t be for everyone, but I suspect others will have warmed to him and perhaps decided he isn’t so scary after all.

But for me the winner was James Shaw. He was relaxed, had a few genuinely funny lines, and I thought presented himself as being mature and very much on message.

The Greens haven’t always done a good job at communicating what their priorities are, but they have this time. Next to the chaos that would be Winston and Seymour in a coalition, James sounded like the adult in the room.

The biggest takeaway for me was the debacle that a National/ACT/NZF coalition would be. That must surely be weighing on the minds of those who have not yet voted.

As Jack said, there sure were a lot of dudes on the dancefloor.