Little By Little.
Is Luxon's change of heart too late?
We the people fight for our existence
We don't claim to be perfect but we're free
We dream our dreams alone with no resistance
Fading like the stars we wish to be
Normally summer’s quiet politically, there’s not much going on and little that’s contentious - but not this year.
We’ve had some lovely days recently, the blue skies and warmth those of us in the north missed last year. It’s felt like summers of old, except unusually for the season there’s been a lot of political news.
I can't recall a government making such a hash of things in such a short time. The race based announcements have been sadly predictable after the campaign we saw. Although we perhaps hadn’t realised what a priority cracking down on Māori was going to be for the new government. As for the whole tobacco thing, I seriously didn’t see that one coming, like actually WTF?
We’re fortunate in lots of ways, many of us are grateful to live in this beautiful country, despite the blokes currently in charge. But it does feel that little by little many things are getting worse. Things that were good are being cancelled, things that aren’t good are being introduced.
That’s how it was feeling until Christopher Luxon finally stood up to David Seymour over his bill and said “please sir, if you don’t mind, can I look like I’m in charge for a bit?”
Over the last two days the Prime Minister has increasingly distanced himself from ACT’s bill. He’s backing away from it so fast, reversing his position at such a rate of knots, that it’s reminiscent of the Labour Party fleeing a progressive tax policy.
Sorry. Too soon?
Perhaps it is. But is the timing right for Luxon to wash his hands of the whole sorry mess that is the Treaty Principles Bill? Or is that too little, too late?
You know I didn't mean
What I just said
But my god woke up on the wrong side of his bed
And it just don't matter now
In my opinion, it is. If the next year turns out to be as grotesque as many of us suspect it will be then that damage done will sit entirely with the Prime Minister I reckon.
This might be David Seymour’s baby, but it never should’ve seen the light of day. Sorry this is turning out grimmer than I imagined, but hold on tight for the next bit. While the ACT leader may have planted the seed (I’m so sorry), it’s been the Prime Minister who has ushered this abomination into the world.
In my view the stain this discussion will leave on our country is 100% on Luxon. Whether he’s currently saying yes, no, or maybe. As I wrote in the following newsletter recently:
'Cause little by little
We gave you everything you ever dreamed of
Little by little
The wheels of your life have slowly fallen off
Little by little
Jenna Lynch from Newshub said cracks were appearing in the Coalition. With Seymour claiming that Luxon was spooked into ruling out support for his bill after Waitangi last week.
Poor David, perhaps he doesn’t understand that not everyone is used to being welcomed like a swimmer discovering a floating reminder of why the beach is closed.
Seymour said he doesn't believe Luxon would hold that promise if there was a groundswell of public support for the bill. For once I agreed with him.
That’s the thing, ACT know this is a winner. There’s a constituency who will latch on to the simplicity of Seymour’s argument that we should all be equal, especially with a little massaging of the messages they’ll receive.
Now I’m with him on equality, but unfortunately David is not promoting socialism. All he’s promoting is the idea that initiatives which seek to improve equality, are in fact a threat to equality. So we should get rid of them, so we can carry on not being equal. All in the name of equality.
Gee it’s little wonder people are so readily confused.
Luxon said:
“The National Party position is rock solid.”
It's our long-held position, we have positions on things and policies on... a range of topics that the public may have a different view on but that's what we believe.”
Yet again there are words claiming long held positions and policies, but little to no evidence of such. All I see so far is a Road to Damascus realisation from Luxon that this is playing out badly and he wants to stem the bleeding away of trust from him, and his government.
Hmm. Is D- a blood type?
True perfection has to be imperfect
I know that that sounds foolish but it's true
The day has come and now you'll have to accept
The life inside your head we give to you
Meanwhile Thomas Coughlan from the Herald was rather more dubious about Luxon’s ability to put the genie back in the bottle.
In his article Thomas makes a comparison between former UK Prime Minister, David Cameron, and the situation that Luxon is in.
Cameron lost his career because he supported a referendum that he didn’t want, or think would pass, because it was politically expedient to do so. Then it blew up in his face. That was the disastrous vote on Brexit, which surely more than anything else demonstrates that some topics should not be put to the public.
I’m sorry, I know that sounds terribly elitist. The idea that the public are incapable of having a mature, well informed discussion on something so open to misinformation or the appeal to base prejudices, as Brexit. Or, of course, the redefinition of the principles of te tiriti.
I’m kidding. Of course the public shouldn’t be trusted on those things. Good grief, just look what happened over in the UK. Cameron made a right pig’s ear of it, and the referendum unleashed small minded racism and anti immigrant sentiments that would’ve been better off left unheard. Not given voice and legitimacy at the ballot box.
Thomas notes the following:
“Luxon and many observers may think that the hardening of his language against the bill this week - he’s now unequivocal: National won’t be backing the bill past select committee - might be enough to put the issue to rest. He couldn’t be more wrong..
..this is the challenge for Luxon. During the exposure draft phase, Seymour, much like the pro-Brexit crowd in the UK, will be able to reach over the head of Luxon, urging National voters to lobby their MPs to at least not bring the bill up for debate and allow the public to have a say at the 2026 election.”
One News was also realistic, albeit a tad cynical. Their report suggested that Seymour had gambled all along that once the public started frothing at the mouth over this one, and the level of support was clearer, then Luxon would follow David’s dog whistle and get in behind.
The danger of course for Luxon is that in ruling out the bill he could end up on the right side of history, but the wrong side of public opinion.
Mike Hosking didn’t think ACT would be overly concerned by Luxon’s apparent change of heart either, saying:
“That is all ACT want to do - debate it, not rewrite it.
You could argue that if this goes nowhere it's a lot of energy for nothing, especially given the state the country is in elsewhere. But as the Curia poll showed, 60% of us broadly like the idea.
I think ACT are onto something.”
That’s the ugly truth. ACT are happy to have this debate even if it goes nowhere. Although I’m sure they still believe that the money, which is no doubt behind this, will speak loudly when the time comes.
It’s hard not to draw the conclusion from this that Seymour has played Luxon, and that he has won.
All Prime Ministers lose the public’s support in time. It came to Key, and to Ardern. It will come to Luxon too. It’s inevitable, whether leaders go out on their own terms or in defeat. But usually a new leader wants to ease into things, to build on their popularity before making important, but unpopular, decisions.
But Luxon isn’t taking it little by little in terms of burning through his political capital. He’s been going ahead in leaps and bounds with his inflammatory behaviour, and it has alienated many.
If he plans to continue beyond a single term then he’d better slow down. The way things have been going you’d have to wonder if his coalition will even last for one.
Neither he, nor we, have heard the last of this bill. This will be with us for quite some time, and all because Luxon was willing to allow it to happen in return for power. Despite his “long held position”, whatever that is.
Some of you will have picked today’s song. I’ve been listening to Oasis a bit lately, rediscovering them after many years. That Noel bloke’s not a bad songwriter.
Do you know what I mean?
Another great piece, Nick. I agree with much of what you say (the comparison with D Cameron over Brexit is apposite - wish I'd thought of it). My abiding view is that Luxon is well out of his depth. We saw that before the campaign started, because he was absolutely not on top of his policy brief and sounded like an amateur. He thinks politics is like business - and he is wrong about that, too. He doesn't know how to handle his coalition partners, who are far more experienced than he is. He is obviously a crap negotiator, as the impossible coalition agreement demonstrates. (Why did he not just hang tough over the Act Treaty bill idea, if it's a 'long-held' position?) I believe he is a liar (we've seen examples already) and a hypocrite (yes, that too). My principal hope is that the coalition will not be able to survive its internal contradictions, and we will be going to the polls inside the year. The alternative is that we all take to the streets to protest - and Luxon should watch out for that. I lived through Muldoon as a teenager and I'm an experienced protester and organiser. The Springbok Tour in 1981 nearly did for Muldoon (he got fewer votes than Labour with just enough seats - which is why we subsequently went for proportional representation, because the left was outraged). Under MMP, angry street protests will do for Luxon and the whole government will fall. If he wants to know what happens to a party when the leader comprehensively fails, he should look to the UK. The Tories look to be out of power for a generation. The failed leaders are a national joke.
Anyway, see you at the Treaty marches, Nick. I'll be there, carrying a banner saying 'It's our Treaty too!' Or perhaps 'Ka whawhai tonu matou - ake, ake ake!' Although I'm not sure he would take the point (we don't know how many of those state-funded lessons in te reo rangatira he took).
Obviously Seymour is evil and can run rings around the man who used to run an airline. But, he too is just a pawn (albeit an effective one) in the big game - the survival of super capitalism. The Atlas Network and their operatives/enablers are on a bit of a roll internationally…