Nauseously Optimistic
America decides: Kamala Harris or Donald Trump.
I am woman, hear me roar
In numbers too big to ignore
And I know too much to go back an' pretend
'Cause I've heard it all before
And I've been down there on the floor
And no one's ever gonna keep me down again
Songwriters: Ray Burton / Helen Reddy
It was an unusual campaign.
How crazy has this election been? The 2016 contest between Trump and Clinton seemed like madness, but this one has been absolutely bonkers. Crazy stuff.
It was an election campaign that was pretty much without primaries, with both parties standing their candidate from the 2020 election. A re-run, Biden vs Trump. Yet as each month passed, the man who had defeated Trump the last time out looked older and less able to focus.
It seems extraordinary now to think how long Biden was in the running until that dreadful debate when it became obvious Trump would win by just standing there and letting Biden’s behaviour and words speak for themselves.
I don’t doubt that if Biden were on the ticket today, Trump would win. It is shocking how long it took the Democratic party to change candidates; it should never have come to what we witnessed and to see a good man left hanging, clearly incapable of running but also unable to see it and make the call himself.
Then, from Trump, good lord, where do you even start? The court cases, charges, and convictions - are they really about to elect a convicted criminal? The eating of the cats and dogs, holding opposing positions on women’s health concurrently, depending on the audience he was playing to.
The accusations that Kamala would “kill all the cows” and calling her every name under the sun. Juvenile schoolyard name-calling by the nastiest bully in the schoolyard - yeah, let’s elect that guy.
The vile rhetoric against immigrants, the preposterous claims from saying he saved the US from war with France to the absurd notion that he can put tariffs on everything without increasing prices to consumers.
Right through to the threats not to accept the result if things don’t go his way, he is obviously willing to manufacture a false scandal that his followers will lap up no matter how insane it sounds.
And then Kamala. Decent, strong, well-spoken, intelligent, black, Asian, female, the opposite of Trump, who appears to be the last hurrah for white supremacy, or at least for the old world where a man could grab a woman as he wanted and use the words that people say are offensive now.
How are we feeling?
Last night, I posted the following; below are some of the replies with the names changed: “One more sleep. How are you feeling about the US election tomorrow? Any predictions?”
Megan: “Nervous, I really can't bear the thought of another four years of Trump. Fingers crossed Kamala wins.”
Graham: “Perhaps a late surge of women voters will swing it for Kamala..here's hoping”
Winona: “If Kamala wins, many will be concerned about a repeat of the violence and rioting following Trump's last defeat. But I don’t think he has it in him to rally the troops. He appears exhausted and is reliant on rambling his usual litany of grievances.
That's not to say his henchmen (and women) who are reliant on his success for jobs won't do it for him - but that would be career suicide. I hope to hell there are more sane Americans than cult followers.”
Angela: “It is frankly unbelievable and a sad indictment on humanity that it is even close.
Trump is unhinged. I wouldn’t put him in charge of a cat. If the public somehow let him win, I’m of a mind that they deserve the forthcoming. In some respects, it might be good, as it might just break capitalism for good and highlight to the world faster than is happening now that greed is destructive and will kill us all.
I’d be buying up supplies as if preparing for a cyclone if I lived in the US. Would not want to leave the house if Trump loses. Which I do think is most likely, but I wouldn’t bet my house on it, as it’s utterly bizarre that it is even close, so anything is possible.”
Niki: “I think women will bring it over the line for Kamala. And sadly, I also feel there may be another Jan 6 debacle because the orange man can't handle losing, let alone to a woman.”
Bob made the following predictions:
Trump wins, beginning a process that turns the world into an uncontrollable nightmare culminating in the end of most mammalian life.
Harris wins; her first challenge is an armed insurrection, which may or may not plunge the USA into anarchy depending on which side the military decides to support.
Donald concedes defeat, steps back and a new president, a female! Of colour! Takes office. There is a flypast of democrat pigs; Jesus descends on a golden escalator to applause from Easter Bunnies, tooth fairies and Coca-Cola Santas.
I suggested #3 would be the best option, but he assured me it was “as likely as a resurgence of common sense.”
What happens next?
As I’m writing this, I can see the reports of bulletproof glass and barbed wire around polling places in highly contested areas and officials with bulletproof vests and panic buttons. There is a discussion of some places using snipers on rooftops.
Both sides have talked about Freedom a lot during the campaign, but it feels like anything but that those measures are necessary.
The US election system is somewhat similar to our old First Past the Post system in that each state, like each of our electorates, essentially runs its own contest to select its representative for the Electoral College. The side that wins the popular vote doesn’t always win the election.
Many states are foregone conclusions; for example, Trump is unlikely to win a liberal state like California, so the overall result is determined in a handful of swing states.
You’ve probably heard about the seven states that are the key to this election. The focus of much of the campaigning, and all eyes will be on them tonight, with the prospect of an unexpected result in any of the other states highly unlikely. They are:
Pennsylvania (19 Electoral College votes)
Georgia (16)
North Carolina (16)
Michigan (15)
Arizona (11)
Wisconsin (10)
Nevada (6)
The polls close at 1 pm NZT for Georgia, 1:30 pm for North Carolina, Michigan and Pennsylvania, close at 2 pm, Arizona and Wisconsin at 3 pm, and Nevada at 4 pm. Depending on how close things are, we should have some sort of idea by late afternoon.
We have become used to exit polls in recent elections, giving us a pretty clear steer regarding who has won early on. It is unlikely such clarity will occur tonight. Given the electoral college system and the closeness in the polls of the seven swing states, there may well be changes in momentum throughout the evening.
Some of you might recall the election in 2016, where early on, it appeared that Clinton was heading for a win before it dawned that things were getting closer and closer until it became undeniable that Trump was going to win.
If Trump wins enough of those battleground states, then it could be over tonight. Still, if Harris wins by anything other than a landslide, which seems highly improbable given all of the polling taken, it may be quite some time before we have certainty of the result.
That is, of course, without the additional threat of some sort of resistance to accepting the result, even if it is decisive.
A great day to bury news
A couple of days ago, I commented that the middle of this week would be a great time for the government to release unpopular news. In the same way, they sometimes choose to release things on a Friday afternoon, as people’s interests are elsewhere.
Sure enough, this last night…
Even as the Waitangi Tribunal released a second report on the bill, finding if the bill were enacted, “it would be the worst, most comprehensive breach of the Treaty/te Tiriti in modern times”.
How cynical is it to announce that you are bringing forward this highly contentious piece of legislation the day before the biggest political event of the year and that the debate will begin just the day after the election? Every time I think, my impression of David Seymour has hit rock bottom and couldn’t get worse, he goes and outdoes himself.
More on this, no doubt, in the coming days, but this is pretty shameful behaviour, even for Seymour.
The verdict.
One would hope that sanity would prevail after all of Trump’s hateful rhetoric. The attacks on women, academics, journalists, immigrants, left-wing politicians, and right-wing politicians.
After the court cases and convictions and all of the things he has said during the campaign and over many years, the American public would finally say enough of this insanity - this man is not suited to be the leader of our country and the free world.
Yet I would be less surprised if he wins today than I was when he won in 2016. Then, it seemed so far-fetched, so beyond the realms of possibility and decency that it was incomprehensible, and now it is not.
The vagaries of the US Presidential election system mean that a relatively small number of Americans will decide who wins. At the same time, the votes of the majority, who live outside of the seven swing states everyone is watching, are basically meaningless.
So who wins? I so hope that it is Kamala, and yet, as I said yesterday, it is hard to be fully enthusiastic, given her unwillingness to take a stand against the ongoing murder of Palestinians by the Israeli state.
But I desperately hope she wins and becomes the first female President of the US; that is so overdue. She will be better on many issues, from equality to health to all the standards of decency and respect for other human beings that Trump represents a departure from.
Yet, on the occasion of this most important of elections, there is no hope for the Palestinian people, no result that will see an end to their suffering.
More than that, I see little from the Democrats that will address the concerns and the pain of those who have seen in Trump something other than the establishment who have let them down and left them behind for decades.
If the Democrats win, they must actually improve people's lives. Folks have had enough of grand speeches and fine words.
They need what our great leader Norm Kirk said people wanted: “someone to love, somewhere to live, somewhere to work, and something to hope for.” If they can’t make a meaningful impact to help deliver those things, then there will be another Trump before long, latching onto that dissatisfaction with ugly populism.
My gut feeling is that Harris will win and that American women will support her in numbers so high that Trump is defeated—and that is good. But for goodness sake, do something with it so that this sort of threat to all that is decent, and even to democracy itself, doesn’t happen again in a few years.
Have a good one, all you lovely people. You’re most welcome to comment below throughout the day on results or how you feel. And C’mon Kamala!!!!
Numbers too big to ignore sound good to me, bloody good. It is way beyond time for a female President of the USA.
I so hope Kamala wins and the orange man just disappears. However, sadly I concede your summary is correct. So fingers crossed the voters are sensible
😭
In relation to Seymour, yeah sadly I don’t think there is a level he wouldn’t sink to. However, releasing the information before the proposed day and activation, I think is just premature (ejaculation?) 😳
Seymour is so focussed on himself, he doesn’t recognise the existence and strength of finding other ways to overcome. More stupidity and selfishness will create better and stronger reactions elsewhere. Toitu Te Tiriti 😀
Someone said to me the other day, 'the Americans will get the president they deserve'. I'm not sure this is true, but my question would be how do we stop the rot world wide? How can sanity and commonsense win against these determined and quite evil in some cases people. I don't know the answer but I hope someone comes up with one soon or we are all fckd.