Oil Shortages

Energy insecurity and the coalition.

An international war criminal
Situation is typical
Weapons of destruction
They're just gasoline and petroleum

And are you sticking around to see what happens?

Songwriter: Victor J Ruggiero.

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Dire Straits.

It’s quite evident to everyone now, except for Donald Trump’s close circle of dull-witted cabinet ministers and Fox News, that the President of the United States has no idea what he is doing in Iran, why he went there, or, more importantly, how he plans to extricate himself from the situation without causing the world’s economy to collapse.

There is no evidence of Weapons of Mass Destruction, and if that was the objective, the targets to date do not support it.

Or was the targeting of schoolchildren, almost certainly carried out by America, a war crime the US was willing to commit to ensure that none of the children grew up to be nuclear physicists?

Of course, the US doesn’t have a plan for tomorrow, let alone one for years from now, when I imagine the aftereffects of this ill-considered excursion will still be with us.

Meanwhile, the people genuinely desiring conflict, Israel, are launching pre-emptive retaliation against their neighbours. A population that has been so mistreated for decades that peace seemed unattainable, and so Netanyahu has taken hold of Trump by the Epsteins and begun his plans for a Greater Israel.

I mean, come on, the Israeli forces are currently dismantling Southern Lebanon, so are we supposed to believe that the Lebanese were also developing WMDs?

Meanwhile, oil tankers are burning, and the prices on our petrol pumps are spinning like a fruit machine.

The new Iranian leader is promising to disrupt the oil trade in response to regimes that have attacked Iran. Given the length of the coast surrounding the Strait of Hormuz, the small, fast drones that can be loaded with explosives to target oil tankers, and the laying of mines, it’s difficult to see how bombing Iran will eliminate such threats.

Situation Aotearoa.

The result of all this is that little old New Zealand, sitting at the bottom of the world and at the end of international supply lines, faces the risk of running out of gas.

We already have petrol stations running out of fuel due to “high demand”, which is a polite way of saying “panic buying”. Prices are climbing above $3 a litre, and we haven’t even begun using oil imported since the war.

A bit of a pre-emptive strike by the energy companies themselves, ramping up prices before the higher-priced shipments arrive.

Luxon doesn’t know what to say; he has no plan, despite the clear risk of such an event occurring over the past year. Meanwhile, the man who is supposed to be our Foreign Minister is still focused on conducting Covid inquiries and will probably do so all the way until the election.

Well, might New Zealand First stay silent as they, along with the rest of the coalition, share responsibility for our dependence on fossil fuels, having cancelled the previous government’s initiatives to reduce our reliance on oil and other non-sustainable energy sources.

With petrol prices expected to continue rising, the cancellation of Electric Vehicle incentives appears to have been a particularly shrewd move by this government.

Self-Sufficiency.

EV sales declined after incentives were withdrawn, but now, with rising fuel costs, they are again in demand. Still, how short-sighted and negligent was it to have removed them in the first place, considering our long-term energy security?

On 1 News last night, they said that 96.4% of electricity generated in this country in the last quarter was from renewables, up 2.1 percentage points from the December 2024 quarter. Surely, continuing to develop clean, green electricity production is better than relying on oil imports from a highly combustible region of the world?

With solar energy production increasing rapidly and other clean alternatives available, the government’s prioritisation of a new LNG depot is the wrong decision at a time when we should be reducing our reliance on fossil fuels rather than planning to import more of them.

Sheep graze under the panels at Lodestone’s Kohirā Solar Farm. Photo: NZ Herald.

David Kea, a former refinery manager at Marsden Point, told RNZ, “If I were running New Zealand, we should use this as the impetus to move us to energy self-sufficiency. Most other countries around the world, outside MAGA US states and New Zealand, are doing that now at pace. For some reason, New Zealand's going down the 1980s path.”

In case you forget, there are also other reasons to reduce our dependency. Non-renewables will eventually run out and become increasingly costly, and there is also the issue of climate change, which they play a significant role in causing.

For a small country on the periphery of the world like ours, the future must be green and as self-sufficient as possible, reserving oil for uses that are difficult to replace.

Car-less days?

Nicola Willis says we don’t need to move to car-free days or rationing because our current orders haven’t been distributed.

Which is much less reassuring than it seems, considering reports that South Korea, from which we import half our oil, is considering a ban on petroleum exports.

So, a return to car-free days?

Photo: NZ Herald.

I’m a bit sceptical that would work these days. The coalition has whipped a proportion of the population into a frenzy with misinformation about Covid lockdowns. Good luck telling those people they can’t use their cars on a particular day of the week because the state says so.

The Fuel Emergency Level System.

To that end, I couldn't help but laugh when I saw Nicola Willis’s colour-coded diagram showing how we’re tracking and whether we need stricter measures.

Ah, how the cookers and the self-focused will react to the idea of behaving reasonably in a civil society as they suffer Covid flashbacks.

The boot could be on the other foot. Don’t stay at Level 4 for too long, Nicola, there might be an inquiry, or three.

Realistically, though, how long before Nicola begins to blame Labour for the economic fallout? Perhaps she should address her concerns to those responsible for creating this mess.

All this economic damage has been caused by the US and Israel, despite no real threat of an imminent attack or convincing story of WMDs; perhaps the rest of the world should follow Trump’s approach and start imposing significant tariffs on these two nations until they settle their debts.

I’m guessing Nicola will find someone to blame, but it won’t be anyone who is responsible.

For example, the leader of a remote country who actively worked to ensure ongoing reliance on fossil fuels and did nothing to prepare for an event that has been a matter of when, not if, since Trump was elected.

Christopher Luxon and Donald Trump. Photo: Whitehouse.gov.

I’ll leave it there for today. If you'd like to subscribe, gift a subscription, or become a patron to support Nick’s Kōrero, please click below. Thank you very much for your consideration.

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Have a great weekend, folks, especially those attending the SPACPAC Canterbury Polyfest 2026 in Christchurch today, which looked like a fantastic event on last night’s news.

Also, if you’re interested in seeing Jacinda Ardern speak at the Auckland Writers Festival in May, you can now book tickets here.

Ngā mihi,
Nick.

To end today, here’s The Slackers performing “International War Criminal”, give it a go, it’s pretty catchy with some great lyrics.