Sour Times
The Greens fall as Te Pāti Māori approaches zero.
After time the bitter taste
Of innocence, decent or race
Scattered seeds, buried lives
Mysteries of our disguise revolve
Circumstance will decide
Songwriters: Beth Gibbons / Geoffrey Barrow / Adrian Utley / Lalo Schifrin / Henry Brooks / Otis Turner.
Christopher’s Chrissie Poll.
If Christopher Luxon had one Christmas wish, it would probably have been for a positive pre-festive poll to keep Kiwis saying “what I would say to you is, isn’t it great” over the summer as they queue at cash registers or socialise with like-minded individuals.
And he looks like he got his wish with last night’s 1 News poll ticking his boxes, even if his would-be replacement, Chris Bishop, now appeared in the preferred PM list, ready to pounce should things turn sour.
It was just what the doctor ordered, and just when the PM needed it, almost as if it were too good to be true. Conspiracies aside, political reporter Maiki Sherman looked very pleased with the result.
Across the aisle, Mr Hipkins will be pleased enough with his own gifts, but he’ll be concerned at how little his prospective partners got.
He’s the sort of bloke who worries about others, and it looked like Shane Jones might’ve been Secret Santa, so meagre were the offerings for the Greens and Te Pāti Māori.
With the ongoing rumbles in Te Pāti Māori, it wasn’t entirely a surprise to see them fall, but what likely caught many off guard, and appeared to make Maiki’s night, was the fall of the Greens.
Greens support falls.
For the first time in a while, the party hasn’t been involved in any so-called scandals, no one has needed to be replaced recently, and the various MPs seem to be doing well at holding the coalition to account while offering an alternative, so what gives?
Moana Maniapoto asked on her page, “Why are the Greens down in the TVNZ poll?”
I replied, “Labour are up three and the Greens down four, I guess the announcement of a CGT and the Greens have been quite quiet, imagine we’ll see more from them in election year.”
With Labour now committing to a CGT, much of their increase seems likely to have come from the Greens. There is also the issue that the Greens have less money than other parties for advertising, so they are less able to participate in the current phoney war, the battle of the memes, but I would expect them to gain more coverage next year.
Don’t Panic!
But here’s the thing - Don’t Panic!
This is just one poll; I suspect there will be one or two more from other media outlets before the end of the year, possibly presenting a different picture, and ultimately, when it comes to changing the government, it’s the total support Labour and the Greens receive that truly counts.
Their combined total was 42% in this poll; if they’re going to change the government, that will need to be north of 45%
National may have received a silly season bounce in the polls, with people feeling good about the Christmas break and issues receiving less prominence. However, there are still major challenges for the coalition in 2026, with employment, the cost of living, and healthcare, and this poll is just a snapshot, well ahead of campaigning.
Labour, on the other hand, will be hoping for a revival in the fortunes of their potential coalition partners.
TPM falls to 1%
Earlier in the day, I’d posted, “It’ll be interesting to see how Te Pāti Māori go in tonight’s poll. I was appalled by John Tamihere’s haughty arrogance on the news on Sunday. It’s all about him, and it looks harder and harder for the party to find peace while he’s involved.”
It was disheartening to see Te Pāti Māori at 1% in the polls. I sincerely hope they will be part of the next government; their voice has much to contribute. However, the way they are being portrayed—especially when their party leaders refuse to speak to the media—a fall was to be expected.
Thinking back to the momentum behind TPM a year ago, as the hīkoi reached parliament and it felt like a growing political force, it was sad to think of the power struggle taking place, seemingly led not by an MP but by the president, John Tamihere.
People commented about Tamihere's arrogance when he was with Labour, of “front bums, gays and unionists”; many seemed to have a negative view. Some even compared his attitude to Brian Tamaki's.
Kirsty wasn’t holding back, saying, “Tamihere is the greedy, arrogant narcissistic thug he has always been. So sad for all of us who felt the hīkoi and believed in the promise, finally, of a Te Tiriti-based, shared future for all Aotearoa. So so disappointing that one arsehole’s ego destroyed so much for so many.”
An anonymous account was somewhat more circumspect, “I wasn’t surprised by John Tamihere’s behaviour, he has always been arrogant and power hungry. If he really cared, he would step down and allow them to repair before the next election, but his ego is too big.”
People don’t vote for a party president; usually, such a role exists in the background, far from the limelight. However, given the close relationship between the co-leaders and the president, some of that dissatisfaction was also directed at them.
From 1 News:
“Among Māori, 45% believe the co-leaders need to be replaced, with 33% saying they should remain.”
I very much hope that Oriini, Hana, Debbie, Rawiri, Mariameno and Tākuta can be reconciled, but I struggle to see how that can occur with JT there.
He needs to be the bigger man, to unite people, and I see little evidence that he can do that.
Tania Waikato.
As Labour people were excited recently by the likes of Gary Payinda and Craig Renney announcing they would stand for the party, there was some positive news for the Greens: Tania Waikato, who has been prominent in the campaign to keep te Tiriti in schools, was putting her hand up to stand for the party.
Go well, Tania. It’s going to be a tough battle, but you’re just the sort of person to take the fight to the coalition.
I’ll wrap it up there, other than to say that subscriptions have fallen off a cliff in the last week, so if you are in a position to manage a couple of dollars koha a week, a paid subscription supporting this newsletter would be greatly appreciated.
Geoff Barrow, co-founder of Portishead, is 54 today. Here’s Sour Times to end today:
I wouldn't worry about the Greens. Their vote will come up. They have a pretty consistent following and are led by two very capable women. Worry about that evil old bastard Winston Peters. We can't beat ACT but it bewilders me Peters, even in his dotage is polling so high. It is the populist vote - but the Emperor has no clothes. Once he's gone and surely it must be soon (81 next year, even older than Trump) NZ First will be left with Shane and Casey. My efforts will be on exposing him for the sham he is as "the handbrake" and the damage he has done.
I call bullshit to that poll last night when it comes to better numbers for National, especially their cringe worthy lazy leader - yet more evidence that our fourth estate is well and truly corrupted and paid for by the "big end of town" - Maiki was also nauseating to watch. I really hope TPM can settle their problems soon for their and our sake given election year cometh!