58 Comments
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Darien Fenton's avatar

I wouldn't worry about the Greens. Their vote will come up. They have a pretty consistent following and are led by two very capable women. Worry about that evil old bastard Winston Peters. We can't beat ACT but it bewilders me Peters, even in his dotage is polling so high. It is the populist vote - but the Emperor has no clothes. Once he's gone and surely it must be soon (81 next year, even older than Trump) NZ First will be left with Shane and Casey. My efforts will be on exposing him for the sham he is as "the handbrake" and the damage he has done.

Stephen D's avatar

Our fourth estate is letting us down badly. Where are the investigations into the corruption of the likes of Shane Jones, Nicole McKee, and Casey Costello?

Cheryl Johnstone's avatar

I do hope you're right about the Greens Darien. Tania Waikato will be a positive for them. I'm always amazed that Luxon comes out ahead as leader in the polls. His constant refusal to answer questions ( Brownlee regularly helps him out at QT) and his stupid antics on social media and at openings of a furniture shop (!!!!) I would have thought would put most right minded people off him.

Jean Rockel's avatar

There seems to be a shortage of right-minded people, Cheryl!

Summerhaze's avatar

I think that 'right-minded' here means those who swerve unthinkingly to the right. I think there are too many of them!

Pauline Arnold's avatar

Personally I don't believe it for a second even the Nats voters I've spoken to think he's a joke.

Vicky Fletcher's avatar

I call bullshit to that poll last night when it comes to better numbers for National, especially their cringe worthy lazy leader - yet more evidence that our fourth estate is well and truly corrupted and paid for by the "big end of town" - Maiki was also nauseating to watch. I really hope TPM can settle their problems soon for their and our sake given election year cometh!

Diana Coleman's avatar

John Tamihere has always been a bit of a worry, controversy and dissent follow him everywhere. He seems to have a knack for eventually annoying the people in any organisation or group he’s involved with. He’s not the man for the job right now, I have no idea who would be but they need to be found quickly before TPM sink beneath the political waves, because that would be a tragedy.

Kim Shaw-Williams's avatar

Always thinking about whether he's losing his mana, eh....too politically immature for the job

kathleen Murdoch's avatar

When we get another once in a hundred years weather event the fickle pollsters will revert to green support.

I'm predicting a bad drought this summer and water shortages for the northern North Island.

I do wish John Tamihere would piss off. o recall him from 30 years ago in Waitemata, same spots different stripes

John Farrell's avatar

Notice the 10% who wouldn't say, or didn't know? And the eligible voters who are now living overseas - their opinion wasn't polled. Let National feel they are in with a chance...

Ange Boland's avatar

Will the ones who have left NZ bother to vote? I hope they do 🤞

Gerard's avatar

I'd love to see the Polling Catchment filters and error rate - this seems like quite a small, targeted subset of the population (still with landlines?). I mean Act up to 10%? Really? With all the disasterous events for that Smeghead hologram, WTF?

Keith Simes's avatar

As you say, Labour need their (potential) coalition partners so Labour should be helping them rather than trying to pinch their votes (or even worse seats). Beating Maiki’s mates must be a team game!

Darien Fenton's avatar

Labour is campaigning as Labour. It's trying to win as many votes as possible so it can lead a change of government. It is not trying to pinch votes or seats. It is entitled to stand candidates in seats like Wellington Bays where they have an excellent candidate in Craig Renney or go for the party vote. You could say the Greens pinched that seat and what was Wellington Central off Labour, but they won. The voters decided. The Greens are perfectly capable of campaigning for themselves and I will go so far as to say they would be offended by any suggestion they need help.

Cindy's avatar

✔️💯 As I keep saying everywhere this is brought up - 1) Labour leaders, strategists & candidates are representatives of LABOUR members, who finance them (very little outside $$ compared to the axis-of-evil of the current coaltion) & campaign for them with their time & effort - other parties on the left do the same & "earn" votes for themselves 2) Minor parties on the left will ONLY be in govt if Labour has enough votes/seats to invite them into a coalition. If Labour "earns" former TPM or Green votes that is the voters choice - it is called DEMOCRACY 🤷

Darien Fenton's avatar

Spot on. I cant tell.you how many bbq, sausage sizzle fundraisers Ive been to including in my own backyard when I stood for Helensville!

Josephine's avatar

And that goes for the Māori seats also Darien

Darien Fenton's avatar

Labour will campaign in the Maori seats. They still hold one in Ikaroa Rawhiti. Until last election they held six. The Maori seats belong only to Maori who are registered on the Maori roll and who vote not to a particular party. Remember when NZ First won them all and the tight five?

Jean Rockel's avatar

Well, they sure need help now.

Jeremy Coleman's avatar

I was astonished to hear during the interview with John Tamihere on TVNZ1 news last night, him declare that there was “plenty of time” to fix the current situation within TPM . He, as president of the party should be well aware that there’s very little time to negotiate and navigate to a settlement which suits everyone and steadies very rocky relationships within its members. The bottom line on this is that if nothing radical is done, TPM will vanish without trace and a few new, young, talented, potentially long and successful careers will be lost, over before they really began. Tamihere must realise he is the one to act. If this involves him stepping down, so be it. It would be his sacrifice which could save the party from extinction and launch a new era. That’s what the bigger man would do.

Brian Rathbone's avatar

Intergenerational wisdom is two way…

- older citizens ready to be seeking new pasture need to actively pass the baton to younger people with fresh energy and ideas (having taken the time and made the effort to mentor and encourage emergent leaders); willing to risk more; offer younger leaders trust and respect (especially if these are earned!). If we’re not ready to pass the baton, are we asking ourselves to reflect why not?

- younger emerging leaders benefit from opportunities that are not tokenistic (that they can get their teeth into). They also benefit from opportunities to learn from and listen to older generations; appreciate history; acknowledge the difference between ideal and actuality; explore values clarification with wise heads beside them; understand the need for balance / equilibrium and the constant challenge in reaching for it.

What other perspectives could I learn from our Substack members on this?

Jeremy Coleman's avatar

I agree with you absolutely Brian. I have friends between the ages of around three to over eighty years old. I believe we can learn equally from each other’s experiences and our views on worldly matters. The three year old view is very different today from that of my generation, (boomer), at their age, but each is as valid as the other. The same goes for the generations before mine, not that there are too many left of them now. I feel that the day you don’t want to learn about anything new is the day you give up on life.

Brian Rathbone's avatar

Jeremy - you make an incredible important point. Emergent leadership needs to be encouraged.

As you say, “The bottom line on this is that if nothing radical is done, TPM will vanish without trace and a few new, young, talented, potentially long and successful careers will be lost, over before they really began. Tamihere must realise he is the one to act. If this involves him stepping down, so be it. It would be his sacrifice which could save the party from extinction and launch a new era. That’s what the bigger man would do.”

Jeremy Coleman's avatar

Thanks Brian. The truth/problem is that Tamihere thinks he is the man for any moment and any cause. TPM, under the right leadership, would have a huge contribution to make for this country. A little humility from the few would help the many achieve the dreams that drew them into politics.

Brian Rathbone's avatar

Mmm exactly…humility and awareness are both sorely needed

Brian Rathbone's avatar

I agree Jeremy - re John Tamihere…it’s unfortunately not the first (or last) time that a man insists on puffing out what he thinks are his pectoral muscles to prove only that…he is living with a testosterone overdose. Sickening really. Same old same old tired twit not yet seriously contemplating changing his behaviour. Stuck. Paralysed. Addicted.

Pauline Arnold's avatar

Maybe they should clean out the two at the top as well & start again with a fresh look.

Sally's avatar

The “P” word. Both politicians and polls are fickle and with the amount of squabbling in-house and the wars and weather disasters happening the people are in a constant state of unrest so the polls are dependent on the day. Shit sandwich

Don's avatar

Again I say if the three closely aligned parties to the left of centre insist on defining their differences and shy away from being caught in the negativity towards their potential partners. Labour, Green and Te Pati Maori are closely aligned and each has sound policies beneficial for New Zealand. If they don’t recognise, value and highlight their commonalities and have some core policies declared they risk being drawn into fighting against each other when they will have to work together if the win a majority. (Sadly it is possible that the more and more New Zealanders have given up on climate being an important issue. Many well heeled are eagerly buying new petrol cars with apparent approval of this present Government - wants to ignore the area and disown preparation and avoiding disasters.)

Cindy's avatar

🙋 As Darien said & I commented - each party needs to define THEMSELVES - unless the parties combine & run as a single entity, these "differences" are what convinces voters to choose them to vote for. Leading up to/closer to the actual election date, plenty of effort goes into places such as The Spinoff & dedicated election education sites showing the commonalities & divergences of ALL parties. 🤷

willy de wit's avatar

Sour Grapes (of wrath AKA 'do the Maiki').

Dame Christine Luxon : what I what I would say to you is, isn't this great !

Poll/Schmoll dear reader.

Come 2026..

National WAS Blue.

ACT DROWNED in Pink.

NZ First? 9TH

AND NOW YOU'RE EXTINCT !

Brian Rathbone's avatar

Willy…you’re so clever! My way with words does not even come remotely close! I love how your creative juice is expressed!

willy de wit's avatar

THANK YOU SO MUCH BRIAN I really appreciate it !

Cindy's avatar

👍 Good article once again. I don't know the ins and outs of TPM as an outsider, but I certainly hope they sort it out & regain their place - they have been a valuable voice & with a strong leadership role as you mentioned.

As for the rest of the polling - far too early to mean anything concrete. Unfortunately the MSM leans right & big $$ goes to the right leaning parties, so in 2026 it will need a massive flax-roots effort from those on the left-centre left to expose Luxon et al & all the damage they have done/will do, plus elevate good candidates who could form a majority to make them a one term govt 💪🤞🤞🤞

Jean Rockel's avatar

My prediction is that the Maori party will fall if they don't get rid of John Tamihere and change the leaders. Sorry, but I'd love to see a change of leadership - they've had their time and its come to an end. It will be interesting to see if they stand down voluntarily, because if they don't there may not be a party. I would imagine that those Maori seats will go to Labour if things don't change. I hope things do change.

Ange Boland's avatar

I can’t believe I was compared to Mrs Mangle on your Facebook post Nick, when I said John Tamihere reminded me of Brian Tamaki.

Mrs Mangle?!

Nick Rockel's avatar

Yes, it was a bizarre response from Al, along with others.

Kim Shaw-Williams's avatar

I am increasingly drawn to the view that Proportional Representation was an idealistic Liberal affectation that has proven to have led to small ideological parties causing political/cultural imbalances through gaining too much power....thus being able to advance their 'hobby-horse' solutions way too far. At present ACT/Smirking Seymour is the offender, but I also think the Greens have been able to shift the culture too radically by going far "too woke" too fast. Lots of my old Labour/Green friends in Welly moan about all the "bloody empty bicycle lanes" (in Wellington, which of course is the windiest city in Aotearoa!!!) and "no friggin' parking spaces" around town, making it extremely difficult for them to go to their favourite shops and venues without hiring an expensive taxi. I suspect this type of rampant change is making a lot of older Labour-voting Kiwis reluctant to bother to vote at all...because they certainly can't vote for the Right!!

Cindy's avatar

🙋 Respectfully, what a load of old codswallop 😱 The Greens input has been invaluable in causing a lot of otherwise ignorant people (as in don't realise rather than "awful") to be exposed to the seriousness of climate change problems but also potential solutions via short & long term actions. They are not extreme in that regard, but pretty "conventional wisdom" in a large part of the world outside Aotearoa 🤷 As for the Wellington-whingers in your circles - I have lived there (Invercargill is windier IMHO) & cycling in wind is standard fare around the world with cyclists old & young; the fallacy of "bloody empty bicycle lanes" has been refuted many times by facts rather than bias'; "no friggin' parking spaces" = BLOODY GOOD! as if those who could/should used "bloody bicycle lanes" or public transport there would be plenty of "friggin' parking spaces" for the rest ⁉️

As for "rampant change" 🤔 - it is badly lacking compared to what is required in a rapidly developing global disruption caused by increasing adverse climate events plus ongoing social upheaval it causes, and on top of the social upheaval social media disruption is continuing to accelerate. Yes, I know about the "older Labour-voting Kiwis" and would also add the "older National-voting Kiwis" as having their voting norms upended, but the future is for the younger folks coming up, with what is good for them & their whanau ALSO being good for "older Kiwis", even if they don't necessarily understand why 🤗

Change is inevitable but because we personally don't understand/like/benefit doesn't mean outside-the-box thinkers are wrong eh ❓

Pauline Arnold's avatar

I don't have a problem with cycleways if I lived in town I probably would cycle for fun not on windy days & I certainly wouldn't be picking up my groceries on a bike. In Tauranga the buses are never on time if they turn up at all so forget that.Until NZ gets it's shit together & they've had years to do it but haven't bothered we're especially ones like me who've been around awhile and used to our cars forever it's gonna take a helluva long time to change people's habits.

John Farrell's avatar

Hmm...your friends may soon have more to worry about than parking. Walking is excellent exercise.

Cindy's avatar

✔️💯 Walking + public transport covers most of MY local travel 🤗 Leaves the roads for those who HAVE to...

Cheryl Johnstone's avatar

The same argument plays out in ChCh too. My argument is that we don't see too many people walking on footpath either but they are still built almost always on both sides of the street. If those that complain would position themselves around cycle lanes before and after usual worktimes they may change their minds. Cycle ways around ChCh hospital and the city centre are chaotic (with bikes).

Kim Shaw-Williams's avatar

Yes Cheryl...that is nice FLAT NON-WINDY Christchurch, it has always been bicycle heaven, right back to 1969 when I first went to University there, out at Islam.....but I certainly didn't bike out to Islam in winter, I caught a bus....oh and I also loved walking and using the trams when in town...

Kim Shaw-Williams's avatar

You John, sound a bit self-righteous...have you ever voted for the Right, I wonder.....my friends in Wellington do not want to walk for miles on noisy smelly streets, they would rather walk on beaches or in parks with their dogs....and besides they are all around 70. or older (I'm 75 and have recently contracted COPD, due to Long Covid)....some of them have lost the ability to walk long distances or carry heavy-ish loads for very far, simply because they are old and have been subjected to various of life's randomly occurring and therefore often unavoidable natural vicissitudes. I knew people like you and Cheryl would reply with typical self-righteous ideological outbursts....and the point is Cindy, Nick had presented for this Korero a discussion of political realities...and THAT is what I was referring to as well....and so my retort is this: so, you are all quite happy for RW Corporate sycophantic ass-kissers like Luxon, Willis and Seymour to manage to keep getting in by the skin of their teeth, and keep giving their patrons like Peter Thiele and John Key even more tax cuts???? Hmmmmmm, methinks you are politically naive.....just a bit, perhaps? But hey, "as the old saying goes, people are just people.".....unfortunately....

John Farrell's avatar

Well, Kim - I thought I was making a comment about environmental and economic dangers which will affect us all - it just shows how poor online communication is in putting nuances across. I should note that I, too am 75, and I have health challenges - not as serious as yours.

Kim Shaw-Williams's avatar

OK then John....and very true about limits of online communication, which why I pushed back a bit....thanks for replying.

Alison Comrie's avatar

Yes do not panic. This is the TVNZ poll that gets skewered to suit National every time. I am not happy though that they skewered it to make ACT come up two points. That's ridiculous. Just make sure all your friends and family are enrolled to vote and that they do vote next year when the time comes. And as for Bishop, there was not even a leadership bid, he's too cunning for that. It's the Nats spin - one they can afford to make as they have so much money to throw at the media.